Manitoba’s NDP government released the 2025/2026 provincial budget last Thursday in what can only be considered an uncertain economic environment. The reality of tariffs being imposed by the United States and by China are already having an impact on many different industries. For Manitoba, this is particularly true for our farming sector.
Framing a provincial budget is trying in the best of times, and these are not the best of times. But what is always important is that the budget be reflective of reality and respond to it in a forthright way. In this regard, the NDP budget missed the target significantly.
On the one hand, the NDP Premier stated that the province was on the path to balancing the budget in two years and yet they have continually missed their own budget projections significantly in only a short time in office. In fact, this provincial budget still forecasts a nearly $800 million deficit. And that is in the best-case scenario, with the expectation that it could grow by at least another half a billion dollars. If the NDP are seeing a path back to a balanced budget within two years, it is a path that nobody else seems to be seeing.
The NDP also are trying to tell Manitobans that the provincial budget makes life more affordable while at the same time increasing taxes. As a starter, the NDP removed the indexing of tax brackets which means that as Manitobans make more money, they will move into a higher tax bracket more quickly and pay higher taxes. As well, the budget does nothing to stop the dramatic rise in school taxes that many Manitobans are facing, in some cases as high as a 25% increase.
And when it comes to the unjust and unwarranted U.S. tariffs, there is little to indicate that the NDP are preparing to take some of the steps needed to mitigate the impact. While short term financial support programs are important, there also needs to be longer term steps taken so that Manitoba and Canada are not placed in the same vulnerable position in the future. That begins with ensuring there is actual free trade in Canada between provinces. Under the former PC government in Manitoba, our province was a leader in getting interprovincial trade barriers removed. But more needs to be done and the provincial budget did not properly address this issue.
As well, there is a greater need to ensure there is a plan to be able to harvest Manitoba’s critical minerals and to find markets for them that are reliable and stable. This becomes even more important for Manitoba as other sectors get potentially impacted by the dual tariffs from the U.S. and China.
The combination of increasing debt, increasing taxes and a lack of a credible plan to mitigate the threat of tariffs leaves Manitoba’s economy vulnerable in what is already a vulnerable time. The lack of a plan that is grounded in the reality of the challenges we face also hampers Manitoba. These are challenging and difficult times to be sure, but more than ever it requires thoughtful and reality-based planning and budgeting.
