Manitoba Infrastructure’s Hydrologic Forecast Centre has released the 2021 Fall Conditions Report that indicates soil moisture levels at the time of freeze-up are below normal in most Manitoba basins.
“The fall conditions report informs us of the hydrologic conditions of Manitoba basins at the time of freeze-up,” said Infrastructure Minister Ron Schuler. “Hydrologic and weather conditions in the winter and spring are the main influences that affect the risk and extent of low or high water events.”
Most river basins in the province received below-normal precipitation between May and October and above-normal temperatures in the summer and fall months with some improvement in precipitation in November. Because of this, soil moisture at the time of freeze-up for most Manitoba basins is generally near normal to below normal.
Most major lakes in Manitoba with the exception of Lake Manitoba are at below normal to well-below normal levels for this time of the year but within their operating ranges. Lake Manitoba is below its operating range and near record-low levels for this time of year.
The long-term weather outlooks from Environment and Climate Change Canada and the U.S. National Weather Service Climate Prediction Centre indicate the development of La Nina weather conditions globally. La Nina weather conditions generally favour normal to below-normal precipitation for most Manitoba basins with a slight chance of above-normal precipitation in northern Manitoba.
The Hydrologic Forecast Centre will continue monitoring Manitoba basin conditions throughout the winter and spring, and share and exchange relevant information with nearby jurisdictions so that Manitoba is well prepared for the spring run-off season in 2022. Spring run-off is still strongly dependent on future weather conditions, including the amount of winter and spring precipitation, as well as snowmelt conditions.
Manitobans can be assured watershed conditions will be monitored closely along with basin condition updates and spring flood outlooks through the winter, noted Schuler.
