Manitoba Transportation and Infrastructure’s Hydrologic Forecast Centre has released the 2024 Manitoba Basins Fall Conditions Report, which indicates soil moisture levels at the time of freeze-up were normal to below normal for most areas of Manitoba and river and lake levels are near normal throughout the province.

The report notes soil moisture at freeze-up was generally near normal to below normal for most Manitoba basins except for portions of the Red River basin in Manitoba and the United States, which have above-normal soil moisture, and portions of western Manitoba, which have well-below-normal conditions. From November to early December precipitation was significantly higher than normal.

The report also contains a long-term precipitation outlook as well as forecasted flows and levels throughout Manitoba basins that includes:

  • Global weather prediction centres indicate a weak La Niña climate condition is expected to develop and persist through the winter. In Manitoba, this generally brings below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation from December to March.
  • Flows and levels on most Manitoba rivers are near normal for this time of the year and are expected to remain at normal levels through the winter.
  • Most Manitoba lakes are at normal to below-normal levels for this time of the year and are within their respective operating ranges.

Near-normal to below-normal soil moisture levels and near-normal river and lake levels thus far indicate potential for near-normal to below-normal spring runoff across Manitoba basins. However, the extent of spring runoff is largely dependent on precipitation throughout the winter and spring and snowmelt conditions. The 2025 spring flood outlook will be released in the later weeks of February and March.

The Hydrologic Forecast Centre works collaboratively with Environment and Climate Change Canada, the National Weather Service and flood forecasters in neighbouring jurisdictions to monitor watershed conditions and winter precipitation patterns. The Manitoba Emergency Management Organization continues proactive preparations for emergency response efforts in advance of spring runoff.