There will be high water levels for prolonged periods on a number of rivers and streams including the Red, Assiniboine, Qu’Appelle and Souris rivers.
Flood warnings have been issued for the Souris River from U.S.-Canada border and downstream, and the Qu’Appelle River in the St-Lazare area.
Flood watches have been issued for the Assiniboine River downstream of Russell to Portage la Prairie; Pipestone Creek, all reaches; Oak Lake and Plum Lakes; Plum Creek to the Souris River (including the town of Souris); the Saskatchewan River near Ralls Island; and the Carrot River near The Pas.
The Red River is forecast to crest in Emerson between April 24 and 27. The water level at Emerson today is 789.7 feet with flows of 73,100 cubic feet per second (cfs) today.
The Red and Assiniboine rivers are forecast to peak in Winnipeg between May 2 and 5. The revised forecast for the Red River takes into consideration these coincident peaks and accounts for unfavourable weather. The upper range of the forecast peak on the Red River at James Avenue in Winnipeg is 22.2 ft., 0.3 ft. less than the 2009 crest.
There will be prolonged high water levels in Winnipeg after the crest passes with the potential for record total natural flow volumes on the Red River at Selkirk.
A revised forecast for the Saskatchewan River at The Pas predicts peak water levels to occur between April 23 and 26. The upper range of the forecasted peak is 1.2 ft. above flood stage elevation (riverbank).
The inflow into the Shellmouth Reservoir is 19,700 cfs and operations today will increase outflows to 4,000 cfs by the end of day. Outflows are being increased to reduce the chance of prolonged flooding during the crop seeding and growing season. Manitoba Water Stewardship is assessing the possibility of further increasing outflows in the next two days given downstream conditions and flood protection activities.
The Souris River at Melita is cresting and will maintain sustained high flows for five to six days. Water levels on the Souris River in the Melita area will be affected by south winds today.
The Pipestone Creek is contributing high flows to Oak Lake and all downstream waterways. Twenty cottages are being surveyed to assess flood-protection needs.
Flood Response
The Roseau River First Nation is evacuating 166 medically vulnerable people and seniors today due to concerns about safe road access.
In addition, 37people have voluntarily evacuated from the RM of Montcalm and 13 additional people from the RM of Ritchot.
There are approximately 690 people evacuated from the Peguis First Nation. PTH 75 continues to be affected by flood waters. Currently, it is available to local traffic only from Winnipeg city limits to PR 205 and is completely closed from PR 205 to Morris, from Morris to St. Jean Baptiste local traffic only is being allowed with lower speed limits and local traffic only from St. Jean Baptiste to PTH 14. Detours are signed and marked.
The railway crossing at St. Jean Baptiste will be closed and there will be smaller dike closures at two of the town’s municipal roads. The rail crossings at the dikes in Morris and Emerson have been fully or partially closed.
The Salvation Army has fed approximately 4,000 people who were sandbagging in flooded areas of Manitoba.
Flood protection work is continuing in Melita. Water did overtop the town’s sewage lagoon. This did not affect local infrastructure such as the sewage lift station, which is protected by sandbags and continues to serve the community. Communities downstream have been notified the sewage lagoon was overtopped. The river crested as predicted by provincial flood forecasters and there will not be a second crest in the community unless there is a significant storm.
In St-Lazare, work to raise the community ring dike and sandbagging of vulnerable homes outside the ring dike is complete. The protection in place is within the forecasted river levels.
The Canupawakpa Dakota First Nation near Oak Lake is putting an emergency dike in place to protect against rising Pipestone Creek waters.
Cottages are also being protected around Oak Lake from rising water levels.
Flood liaison offices in Arborg, Winnipeg, Morris and Brandon have fielded 410 calls. Callers are looking for information about water levels, flood-proofing elevations and highway conditions.
Trailers with flood-tube barriers and staff are being positioned in The Pas for temporary flood protection around the community, Rall’s Island and Opaskwayak Cree First Nation. An Amphibex broke up ice at the Halliday Bridge on the Carrot River yesterday and the two machines remain on standby to address ice problems as needed.
There are currently 875 Manitobans evacuated from their homes, primarily due to loss of safe road access.
There are 79 provincial roads affected by flooding with 54 closed and about 620 municipal roads closed.
Red River
The Red River is forecast to crest in Emerson between April 24 and 27. The water level at Emerson is 789.7 ft. with flows of 73,100 cfs today. Water levels at St. Adolphe have increased 0.34 ft. since yesterday.
Water levels just upstream of the Red River floodway inlet are 761.66 ft. with flows of 66,500 cfs. Flows in the floodway are approximately 26,500 cfs. Flows above the floodway inlet will steadily increase, but remain below natural levels, until the forecast peak flows occur between May 2 and 5.
Water levels at James Avenue in Winnipeg have decreased 0.35 ft. since yesterday to 18.01 ft. due to declining Assiniboine River flows. Flows at James Avenue this morning are approximately 50,500 cfs. Flows on the Assiniboine River will be increasing in the upcoming days.
Assiniboine River
The Qu’Appelle River will be peaking in the next few days in the St-Lazare area. The community protection dike is nine ft. above the current water level and are high enough to address the forecast peak.
Dike repairs continue along the Assiniboine River near Baie St. Paul.
Flows in the Portage Diversion channel this morning are at 19,100 cfs and flows on the Assiniboine River downstream of the diversion are approximately 8,100 cfs. Inflow upstream of Portage la Prairie is 27,200 cfs.
Water levels on the Shellmouth Reservoir have increased 3.28 ft. since yesterday to 1,398.29 ft.
Pembina River
Levels on Rock Lake decreased 0.13 ft. since yesterday.
The Pembina River is exceeding river banks on the North Dakota portion of the watershed, with overflows occurring on both sides of the river and with slight overtopping occurring at two locations along the border road. South winds forecast for today may influence border-road water levels.
Souris River
A second crest on the Souris River is forecast to reach similar or slightly higher water levels than the first crest at Wawanesa and Souris (but not at Melita).
The Pipestone Creek is contributing high flows to Oak Lake and all downstream waterways.
The Souris River continues to be over the banks at several locations. Since yesterday, water levels on the Souris River have increased by 0.91 ft. and 0.59 ft. at Souris and Wawanesa, respectively.
Northern Rivers and Lakes
A revised forecast for the Saskatchewan River predicts peak water levels to occur between April 23 and 26. The upper range of the forecasted peak is 1.2 ft. above flood stage elevation (riverbank) at Ralls Island. Flood preparations, such as the installation of AquaDams, are being made to protect the community.
Water levels on the Saskatchewan and Carrot rivers at The Pas have increased approximately 0.54 ft. and 0.79 ft. since yesterday, respectively.
Ice movement and jamming on both the Saskatchewan and Carrot rivers may occur over the next few days.
Other Major Waterways
Due to the warming trend, snowpack-affected streams such as the Swan, Turtle, Shell, Pine, Garland, Ochre, Vermillion and Valley rivers have just commenced run-off in upper watersheds. The significant amount of snowpack remaining in high elevations will result in high run-off flows, with second crests near the end of next week. It is anticipated the second crest will be lower than the first on most of these streams.
Lake Manitoba water levels have risen to 813.34 ft. The Waterhen River flows are 9,000 cfs. Outflows from Lake Manitoba are 11,200 cfs today. Lake Winnipeg water levels have risen to 715.01 ft.
Today’s risk of shoreline ice pile up on major lakes in Manitoba is low.
For more information, please see www.manitoba.ca/flooding and find the most up-to-date highway information at www.gov.mb.ca/mit/roadinfo or 1-877-MBRoads (1-877-627-6237) and on Twitter by following @MBGov.
