The Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture is projecting a return to profitability in the western Canadian swine industry by the second quarter of this year.
Figures released by Statistics Canada show that, as of January 1, 2009, the number of hogs and pigs on Canadian farms was down by about ten percent from one year earlier while the breeding herd was reduced by about seven percent.
Brad Marceniuk, a livestock economist with the Saskatchewan Ministry of Agriculture, expects western Canadian prices to reach 155 to 165 dollars per one hundred kilograms in the second quarter, which would represent a return top profitability.
The Canadian hog herd has declined by about one tenth in size in 2008 so hog production will decline in 2009.
Canadian farrowing intentions for the first half of 2009 are estimated to be down about three percent compared to the same period in 2008 so we’ll continue to see Canadian hog marketing numbers decline into 2009.
With less hogs produced we expect less live hog exports into the U.S. in 2009 from 2008 and this should really help the U.S. hog supply numbers a little bit be reduced and be positive for hog prices.
With losses among both Canadian and U.S. producers in the last year, producers are exiting the industry so we’re seeing reduced production.
The big question will be in 2009, where will demand be with the global recession at this time, what will demand for North American pork be?
In 2008 U.S. pork exports soared by about 70 percent so, if we see any major decline in North American pork exports in 2009 we could then see domestic supplies increase which could put pressure on North American hog prices.
Marceniuk says, with reduced hog supplies, prices are expected to be higher in 2009 particularly for Canadian producers as a result of the decline in the value of the Canadian dollar.
He says, with lower production, hog slaughter capacity should not be an issue but demand for pork and North American pork exports will be key factors influencing prices in 2009.
Source: Farmscape.Ca
