There is a strong wind warning in effect for Lake Manitoba, Lake Winnipeg and Lake Winnipegosis. Strong winds will be sustained for the next three days on all three lakes, as well as the Shoal Lakes, Dauphin, Oak, Pelican and Rock lakes, and other lakes across Manitoba. Municipalities and residents are advised to prepare for wind-affected lake levels and significant wave action along the shoreline of the lakes.
Manitoba Conservation crews were sandbagging in the RM of St. Laurent area over the weekend and are now working in the RM of Siglunes. Manitoba government volunteer crews are working in the beaches area as well and will move to the west side of the lake.
There are evacuation notices in several beach communities. Residents and cottagers are advised to move belongings to higher ground or to alternative sites.
Flood-protection systems built on sand are extremely challenging as the sand will easily shift and erode as a result of wind and wave action.
So far, the resources that have been provided to the area are:
• over one million sandbags and two provincial sandbag manchines,
• clean sandbags being made available from the RMs of Portage la Prairie, Cartier and St. Francois Xavier,
• over 600 large and small flood-tube barriers, and
• hundreds of volunteers and support in managing emergency operations.
Lake Manitoba is at its highest level in 50 years. Going into this spring, the lake level was 1.8 feet below natural levels. The lake is approximately 0.45 ft. below natural levels.
Flows out of Lake Manitoba through the Fairford Dam to Lake St. Martin have been occurring since the fall at the highest possible levels taking into account downstream safety considerations. During freeze-up, outflows through the Fairford River control structure were reduced to minimize frazil ice jams downstream of Lake St. Martin. Outflows were increased during the winter once a stable ice cover was in place. In April, the dam was fully opened once ice conditions allowed for its full operation.
High Lake St. Martin levels affect the homes of three First Nations communities: Pinaymootang (Fairford), Little Saskatchewan and Lake St. Martin. Many residents in this community will be out of their homes on a long-term basis due to high lake levels. In addition, high flows from Lake St. Martin down the Dauphin River to Lake Winnipeg are affecting road access to the Dauphin First Nations community. As a result, several residents in that community are expected to be evacuated on a long-term basis.
There are extensive efforts underway around Lake St. Martin to build earthen dikes to protect against rising lake levels. Even with this work, the 587 people evacuated from Lake St. Martin First Nation are not expected to return home until late fall. There are 124 people evacuated from their homes on Little Saskatchewan First Nation and 37 from Pinaymootang (Fairford) First Nation.
On Lake Manitoba, the peak level is forecast to be 815.6 to 815.8 ft. around the middle of June. Between now and the date of the peak, the lake will continue to slowly rise. The lake is at its highest level in 50 years due to spring flooding. Strong winds can cause increased lake levels and high waves.
Around Lake Manitoba, the Manitoba government will provide 90 per cent of actual incurred costs from flood damage up to $90,000 for damages to the structure for cottages and up to $200,000 for damages to the structure and basic and essential contents for permanent residences. Property owners who commit to flood mitigation for their property now and in the future will have their 10 per cent co-payment waived. There is also up to $20,000 for permanent flood-protection measures. Flood-mitigation measures include relocating or raising cottages or homes. Information about these programs is available at 1-855-220-1822.
An assessment is underway to improve the capacity of the Assiniboine River, Lake Manitoba and Lake St. Martin flood-management systems including options to increase outflows from Lake Manitoba and Lake St. Martin.
Other Areas
Over the weekend, 1,420 people returned home in the city of Brandon.
Manitoba government employees continue to contact residents around the Hoop and Holler Bend controlled release site and around Lake Manitoba about the compensation programs recently announced. The contact number is 1-855-220-1822. Information is also available at www.manitoba.ca/flood.
Flood Forecast
In addition to strong wind warnings along Dauphin Lake, Lake Manitoba, Lake Winnipeg and Lake Winnipegosis, there is an unstable weather system forecast to bring 15 to 70 millimetres of rain across parts of southern Manitoba today. Impacts of this storm are being assessed as the storm evolves. Rivers are now receding and it is anticipated the storm will slow the recession and increase water levels slightly on major rivers, and produce minor crests on smaller tributaries. The Saskatchewan portion of the Souris River Basin may receive up to 75 mm of precipitation in localized areas as a result of this storm.
Flood warnings are in place for the Assiniboine River at all points downstream of the Shellmouth Dam; Pipestone Creek, all reaches; Oak Lake and Plum Lakes; Plum Creek to the Souris River (including the town of Souris); and the Qu’Appelle River in the St-Lazare area.
A high water advisory remains in effect for all major lakes in Manitoba and the Souris River.
Lakes
Manitoba Water Stewardship’s flood forecasting website has information on forecast peak water levels for Lake Pineimuta, Lake Manitoba and Dauphin Lake, as well as wave uprush illustrations and other flood information.
Lake levels at Oak and Plum Lake are high and continue to contribute high flows to Plum Creek.
The estimated outflow from the Fairford River Water Control Structure is 17,175 cubic feet per second (cfs) today. The structure continues to operate at full capacity due to the high level of Lake Manitoba.
Assiniboine River
Water levels on the Shellmouth Reservoir are 1,411.42 ft., decreasing 0.31 ft. since yesterday. Inflow into the Shellmouth Reservoir is 3,780 cfs and outflow is 6,425 cfs today.
Water levels on the Assiniboine River at the First Street Bridge in Brandon are 1,177.34 ft., decreasing 0.33 ft. since yesterday. Flows at the First Street Bridge in Brandon are estimated to be 18,660 cfs.
Inflow upstream of Portage la Prairie is 33,860 cfs. Flows in the Portage Diversion channel are 15,880 cfs. Flows on the Assiniboine River at the Portage Reservoir control gates are 17,980 cfs.
Water levels in the Baie St. Paul area are 799.87 ft., a decrease of 0.02 ft. since yesterday.
Souris River
Water levels on Plum Creek have decreased to 1,375.39 ft. today.
Water levels on the Souris River at Wawanesa increased 0.02 ft. since yesterday to 1,154.89 ft. today, with an estimated flow of 12,900 cfs.
For more information, see www.manitoba.ca/flooding. The most up-to-date highway information is at www.gov.mb.ca/mit/roadinfo or 1-877-MBRoads (1-877-627-6237) and on Twitter by following @MBGov.
