The RM of Kelsey has declared a state of local emergency to assist with efforts to raise the dikes along Ralls Island near The Pas. Approximately 14 kilometres of dike will be raised by four feet to protect against rising water levels.
A revised forecast for the Saskatchewan River at The Pas, based on new information from Saskatchewan, indicates a new peak between 858 and 859.5 ft., which would be 1.8 to 3.3 ft. above the previous crest on April 23. This crest is expected on June 15 with unfavourable conditions and close to the end of June with favourable conditions. This new crest is a result of significant precipitation occurring in Alberta and Saskatchewan and snowmelt from the Rocky Mountains where the upper portion of the basin received 1½ times the normal snowpack. Saskatchewan government representatives are co-ordinating with Manitoba to operate flood control structures to reduce downstream flooding. However, additional rain before June 15 may bring water levels at Ralls Island to between three and 4.5 ft. above flood stage of 855 ft.
On Lake Manitoba, a mandatory evacuation order remains in place in the RM of St. Laurent including Twin Lakes Beach north and south, Sandpiper Beach, Carp Road, Pioneer Resort, Laurentia Beach and Johnson Beach. There has been some access to properties but a restricted area affecting approximately 700 properties remains closed. Power lines are down and being repaired, and numerous roads are washed out and impassable. The mandatory evacuation is expected to be in place for at least seven days. So far, 425 people are evacuated from the municipality.
Evacuated residents can pick up their evacuation allowances in the municipal office Monday, June 6 between 1 and 4 p.m. Allowances will be delivered on Monday to the registered evacuees who are staying in Winnipeg hotels. Registered evacuees staying with friends or families in Winnipeg can pick up their cheques at Unit 6, 677 Stafford St. between 8:30 a.m. and 4 p.m. The RM of St. Laurent has information posted on its website at www.rmofstlaurent.ca/english_notices.php.
An additional 21 people have evacuated from the RM of Woodlands including the Shoal Lakes area. So far, 44 people have evacuated from the area.
Approximately 30 Manitoba Conservation staff who normally work on fires are assisting with flood-fighting efforts in the RM of Ochre River at the south basin of Dauphin Lake. A supervised crew of inmates from the Dauphin Correctional Centre is also assisting with sandbagging efforts in the area.
There is also a volunteer crew of Manitoba government employees working in the RM of Siglunes.
The assessment of damage from the storm continues across southern Manitoba. Numerous roads are washed out in southwestern Manitoba. Some homes in the Deloraine area have experienced basement flooding. Souris has seen some flooding and water in the basements of some homes. However, the dikes in the community are high enough to deal with latest rise in the Souris River levels. The village of McCreary has homes with basement flooding as well. There are approximately 70 municipalities dealing with flooding and the damage caused by the storm on Tuesday.
At Ste. Rose du Lac, the community ring dike has been reopened at PR 276 on the southern side of the community. This is the first time the community ring dike was closed due to high waters since it was reinforced in 1986.
The Manitoba government is working with rural municipalities across southern Manitoba through regular meetings to manage issues such as well restoration, waste water and hazardous goods, compensation programs, disaster financial assistance, emergency social services, agricultural issues, and connecting residents and responders with resources for managing stress.
Flood Forecast
Peak lake levels forecasts are being increased as a result of the heavy rains from the recent storm. The new Lake Manitoba forecast peak is 816.1 ft. and with unfavourable weather conditions, 816.5 ft. around July 5. Lake St. Martin is expected to be 805.2 ft. and with unfavourable conditions 805.4 ft. around July 25. On Lake Pineimuta, is forecast to be 808.5 ft. and with unfavourable conditions, 808.8 ft. Forecasters have predicted peak water levels within a range, with the lower range representing average future weather conditions and the upper range representing unfavourable weather conditions.
Wind warnings have been removed for Lake Manitoba, Lake Winnipeg’s South Basin and Lake Winnipegosis. A strong wind warning is in effect for Lake Winnipeg’s North Basin.
As a result of recent rain, water level increases on tributaries of the Assiniboine River experienced increases between 0.1 ft. and four ft. since yesterday. Most tributaries have crested or are near crest. The main stem of the Assiniboine River is forecast to reach another crest at the Portage Reservoir of 43,800 cfs between June 4 and 8. Water levels in the Canadian portion of the Souris River are forecast to reach another crest. Forecasters are assessing the impact of the flows on the Souris River with unfavourable weather conditions.
Nearly all of the recent rain and any rainfall within the next few days will run-off due to highly saturated soils.
Flood warnings are in place for the Souris River; the Assiniboine River at all points downstream of the Shellmouth Dam; Pipestone Creek, all reaches; Oak Lake and Plum Lakes; Plum Creek to the Souris River (including the town of Souris); and the Qu’Appelle River in the St-Lazare area.
A flood watch has been issued for the tributaries of the Assiniboine River.
A high water advisory is in place for all major lakes in Manitoba, the Saskatchewan River and all points in Manitoba.
Lakes
Water levels at Twin Lakes Beach were significantly affected by wind set-up over the weekend, reaching a high water level of 820.37 ft. during the storm. This wind-affected water level is over four feet above wind-eliminated water levels. Watchorn Beach reached a high wind-affected water level of 816.82 ft., approximately one foot above the wind-eliminated water level.
The estimated outflow from the Fairford River water control structure is 18,250 cfs today. This is the highest flow ever recorded. The structure continues to operate at full capacity due to the high level of Lake Manitoba and the outflow will continue to increase as Lake Manitoba water levels rise and push more water through the Fairford River.
Lake levels at Oak and Plum lakea are high and continue to contribute high flows to Plum Creek.
It is anticipated that Dauphin Lake water levels could reach the upper range of the forecast peak at around 861.2 ft. some time near the end of June.
Manitoba Water Stewardship’s flood forecasting website has information on forecast peak water levels for Lake Pineimuta, Lake Manitoba, Lake St. Martin and Dauphin Lake, as well as wave uprush illustrations and other flood information.
Assiniboine River
The precipitation received earlier this week will result in water level rises throughout the Assiniboine River Basin.
Water level increases on tributaries of the Assiniboine River ranged between 0.1 ft. and four ft. Since yesterday, Birdtail and Sturgeon creeks increased 3.9 ft. and 0.3 ft., respectively. Unless heavy rain develops, most of the tributaries have crested or are near crest in the Assiniboine River Basin.
Due to the recent storm, the main stem of the Assiniboine River is forecast to reach another crest. Water levels at the First Street Bridge in Brandon are forecast to reach around 1180.8 ft. between June 5 and 7. Flows into the Portage Reservoir are forecast to reach around 43,800 cfs around June 4 and remain at these high flows until approximately June 8.
Water levels on the Qu’Appelle River at Welby are 16.71 ft. today, decreasing 0.19 ft. since yesterday.
Water levels on the Shellmouth Reservoir are 1,409.98 ft., decreasing 0.41 ft. since yesterday. Inflow into the Shellmouth Reservoir is 3,520 cfs and outflow is 6,360 cfs today.
Water levels on the Assiniboine River at the First Street Bridge in Brandon are 1,178.63 ft., increasing 0.43 ft. since yesterday. Flows at the First Street Bridge are estimated to be 22,250 cfs.
Inflow upstream of Portage la Prairie is 37,580 cfs. Flows in the Portage Diversion channel are 20,060 cfs. Flows on the Assiniboine River at the Portage Reservoir control gates are 17,520 cfs.
Water levels in the Baie St. Paul area are 799.74 ft., a decrease of 0.19 ft. since yesterday.
Souris River
Forecast peak flows for the Souris River at Westhope, N.D., are between 13,000 and 14,000 cfs predicted to occur between June 14 and 18. These flows are above the 1976 record of 12,400 cfs.
Downstream in Melita, flows are forecast to reach another crest sometime between June 16 and June 22 with favourable weather conditions and be less than previous crests. With unfavourable weather conditions, the Souris River at Melita may reach 1,412.0 ft., 0.4 ft. above the previous crest reached on April 22.
Further downstream in Souris and Wawanesa, flows are forecast to reach minor crests between June 23 and 28 and June 24 and 29, respectively. Wawanesa is forecast to reach between 1,156.3 and 1,158.2 ft with median to unfavourable weather. The upper range of this forecast is below today’s peak water level at Wawanesa. Souris is forecast to reach between 1,357.7 and 1,359.2 ft. with median to unfavourable weather. The upper range of this forecast is 0.6 ft. below the previous crest on April 23.
Plum Creek decreased 0.46 ft. since yesterday to 1,377.94 ft. A flood warning remains in effect for all reaches of the Pipestone Creek and downstream into the Oak and Plum lakes system, then on Plum Creek to the Souris River including the town of Souris.
Water levels on the Souris River increased and the level at Melita is 1,410.68 ft, Souris is at 1,359.28 ft. and Wawanesa is 1,157.94 ft. Flows on Souris River at Wawanesa are estimated to be almost 17,700 cfs today.
