Analysis of the current storm and projected water flows on the Assiniboine River show a slight improvement in expected conditions caused by the current weather system. Conditions are being closely monitored. It appears the Assiniboine River dikes and the Portage Diversion channel will be able handle the flows as a result of the extensive work that has been undertaken to reinforce both these systems. All flood-protection systems are being closely monitored and projected water levels closely watched while the storm moves across Manitoba in the next few days.
Work is progressing well to reinforce the Wawanesa Dam using helicopters to drop heavy rock and adding sandbag dikes.
A bridge near Treesbank on PR 530 has been washed out by high waters. One government staff member of Manitoba Infrastructure and Transportation was inspecting the bridge when it washed away but was able to reach safety and is in good condition and back at work today. Detours are in place for residents in the area.
South winds are affecting communities on the north portion of Lake Manitoba near Meadow Portage, Spence Lake, Benyks Point and Woods Creek. There have been evacuations in the area due to high water levels on the lake.
The RM of Siglunes issued mandatory evacuation notices to three residences on Kernsted Beach and 14 in the Narrows area. Voluntary evacuation notices have also been issued by the RM of Coldwell for Lundar Beach and Sugar Point for approximately 100 cottages.
Approximately 350 homeowners and cottage owners have been provided temporary access to the mandatory evacuation zone at Twin Lakes Beaches. A one-stop shop in St. Laurent was open to assist residents with applications for the Lake Manitoba compensation program. It processed 267 applications over three and a half days.
So far, 502 applications have been received for the Hoop and Holler Bend compensation program and $242,000 provided in advance payments. There have been 342 applications for the Lake Manitoba program to help agricultural crop and livestock producers to manage the affects of flooding and $180,000 has already been paid out.
There are a number of specialized programs for residents on Lake Manitoba and in the Hoop and Holler Bend area. In addition, there is disaster financial assistance (DFA) available. More information can be found at www.manitoba.ca/flood.
The Manitoba Emergency Measures Organization mobile command post will be in St-Lazare tomorrow, Deloraine on June 15 and Glenboro on June 16 to assist with applications for DFA.
Construction and reinforcement of dikes in The Pas is progressing well in preparation of high water levels later this month along the Saskatchewan River.
Flood Forecast Summary
Much of southern Manitoba received rain last night and this morning. Cumulative rainfall values between midnight and 11 a.m. this morning ranged from 18.2 millimetres in Birtle to 28.4 mm in Minnedosa.
Areas that received the heaviest rainfall, such as the Little Saskatchewan and Birdtail river watersheds, Dauphin Lake basin and the Riding Mountain National Park area, have experienced minor rises in tributary water levels.
This unstable weather system could bring heavy rain to some areas, resulting in localized flooding.
Inflows upstream of Portage la Prairie are 49,250 cubic feet per second (cfs). Flows in the Portage Diversion channel are 31,430 cfs. Flows on the Assiniboine River at the Portage Reservoir control gates are 17,820 cfs. Forecasters estimate that rainfall over the next few days will not result in further significant increases to Assiniboine River flows upstream of the Portage Reservoir.
Water levels on the Saskatchewan River at The Pas increased 0.09 feet since yesterday to 853.88 ft., with a flow of 65,400 cfs. Water levels are expected to reach 855.5 and 857 ft. by late June, depending on the weather.
Lakes
Environment Canada has issued a strong wind warning for Lake Manitoba, Lake Winnipegosis and Lake Winnipeg for today. Winds on Lake Manitoba are forecast to be southeast and reach 56 km/h today. Winds on Lake Winnipeg’s South Basin are forecast to be south at 56 km/h today and south at 37 km/h on Lake Winnipegosis.
A severe wind setup alert has been issued for the north shore of Lake Manitoba’s North Basin including communities such as Meadow Portage, Benyks Point, Woods Creek, the Fairford area and communities south of PR 328.
A high wind setup alert has been issued for the east and west shores of Lake Manitoba’s North Basin, the west shore of Lake Manitoba’s South Basin and Oak Lake. This includes communities such as Steeprock and the Sandy Bay and Crane River First Nations.
A moderate wind setup alert has been issued for the east shore of Lake Manitoba’s South Basin, Lake Winnipegosis and the west shore of Lake Winnipeg’s South Basin. This includes communities such as Gimli, Winnipeg Beach, Lundar Beach and Winnipegosis.
Forecast peaks are as follows, weather dependant:
• Lake Winnipeg: 716.9 ft. around mid-July. (Source: Manitoba Hydro) Lake Winnipegosis: between 835 and 835.5 ft.
• Lake Pineimuta: between 809 and 809.3 ft.
• Lake Manitoba: between 816.8 and 817 ft. around mid-July.
• Lake St. Martin: between 806 and 806.2 ft. around early August.
Lake levels at Oak and Plum lakes are high and continue to contribute high flows to Plum Creek.
The estimated outflow from the Fairford River water control structure is 19,400 cfs today. The structure continues to operate at full capacity due to the high level of Lake Manitoba.
Water levels on Rock Lake declined 0.14 ft. since yesterday to the current level of 1,336.09 ft. The outlet at Pelican Lake is operating full capacity.
A high water advisory is in effect for all major lakes in Manitoba.
Assiniboine River
The Assiniboine River forecast is being reassessed to include current and forecasted rainfall. With current rainfall accumulation values, Assiniboine River flows at the Portage Reservoir will continue to decline.
The flood warning for the Qu’Appelle River in the St-Lazare area has been downgraded to a flood watch. Water levels on the Qu’Appelle River declined until early this morning and are now increasing as a result of the storm to 16.35 ft.
Water levels on the Shellmouth Reservoir are 1,407.72 ft., decreasing 0.05 ft. since yesterday. Inflow into the Shellmouth Reservoir is 2,900 cfs and outflow is 3,290 cfs today.
Water levels on the Assiniboine River at the First Street Bridge in Brandon are at 1,177.99 ft., decreasing 0.61 ft. since yesterday. Flows at the First Street Bridge are estimated to be 20,300 cfs.
The Assiniboine River at the Portage la Prairie Reservoir reached a second crest of 50,000 cfs late June 11.
Water levels in the Baie St. Paul area are 799.89 ft., declining 0.05 ft. since yesterday.
The flood warning for the Assiniboine River at all points downstream of the Shellmouth Dam remains in effect.
Souris River
The flood warning for the Souris River remains in effect.
Plum Creek increased 0.17 ft. since yesterday to 1,375.75 ft. A flood warning for all reaches of Pipestone Creek and downstream into the Oak and Plum lakes system, then on Plum Creek to the Souris River including the town of Souris remains in effect.
Water levels on the Souris River at Melita declined 0.02 ft. since yesterday to 1,411.23 ft. The Souris River at Melita is forecast to reach between 1,411.5 and 1412 ft. by June 15 to 17.
The Souris River has crested at the town of Souris at 1,360.86 ft. and at Wawanesa at
1,158.84 ft., and levels are now declining. If rainfall is significantly above the current weather forecast, water levels may increase beyond these peaks.
Water levels on the Souris River at the town of Souris are 1,360.52 ft. with no change since yesterday. Water levels at Wawanesa declined 0.12 ft. since yesterday to 1,158.48 ft.
