The fifth major storm to hit Manitoba in as many weeks brought heavy rain and hail, and strong winds in localized areas, but was not as widespread as first forecast. The repeated storms are falling on already saturated land that can’t absorb more water. This causes overland flooding and rises in streams, rivers and lakes. Forecasts will continue to be monitored and updated, and weather will continue to have an effect on flood conditions around the province.
Rainfall in the last 24 hours ranged from a high of 87 millimetres in Balmoral, to 63 mm in Teulon, 26.8 mm in Dauphin and 5.5 mm in Winnipeg.
Areas that received the heaviest rainfall, such as the Little Saskatchewan River watershed, Birdtail River watershed, Netley River watershed, Dauphin Lake basin, Shoal Lakes basin and the Riding Mountain National Park area, have experienced rises in tributary water levels. Water levels on the Little Saskatchewan, Qu’Appelle, Oak, Netley and Wilson rivers have risen as a result of the storm.
Manitoba’s flood-protection systems continue to hold, particularly along the Portage Diversion channel and the Assiniboine River dikes, and no additional flood-protection measures are required. At this time, the controlled release point at the Hoop and Holler Bend will not be reopened.
Current weather forecasts indicate that up to 65 mm of rain could fall in southwest Manitoba between today and Friday. Higher rainfall amounts will occur in some areas due to localized storm cells.
Compensation
A $175-million Building and Recovery Action Plan is providing financial assistance through a number of programs including those specifically set up for residents in the Hoop and Holler Bend and Lake Manitoba areas. Advance payments are already flowing to residents under these programs, and, to date, $424,000 has been provided. These are unique programs over and above the traditional payments provided by the disaster financial assistance (DFA). The advances are being made as quickly as possible to provide immediate financial support. Final payments will be provided once receipts are submitted. More information on all the available programs and DFA can be found at www.manitoba.ca/flood.
Other Areas
Mandatory evacuation notices were issued to approximately 100 people from the community of Vogar in the RM of Siglunes and there were additional mandatory evacuations at Kernsted Beach, Mrs. Ellie’s Drive and Skinny Dip Bay. There were also mandatory evacuations at Lundar Beach and Sugar Point yesterday in the RM of Coldwell.
A temporary dike was breached at Maple Beach in the RM of Grahamdale and resulted in the evacuation of two properties.
An additional 15 people were evacuated from the Lake Manitoba First Nation yesterday, bringing the total number of evacuees from that community to 159 people. In the same area, 587 people from the Lake St. Martin First Nation are evacuated from their homes and 127 people from the Little Saskatchewan First Nation are also evacuated.
At the north side of the Lake Manitoba, there have been evacuations from the Spence Lake community.
Repairs and reinforcement of the Wawanesa Dam has been completed.
A sandbag dike which protects approximately 22 homes in Souris is being reinforced by provincial crews.
Work is continuing to reinforce and construct new dikes at Ralls Island in The Pas.
Flood Forecast Summary
The Assiniboine River forecast is being reassessed to include both the actual and forecast rainfalls. Flows on the Assiniboine River will increase somewhat, based on the current weather forecasts. If heavier rains develop, higher increases could occur. This will be assessed as the rains develop.
Water level increases on the Souris River will depend on the extent and intensity of rainfall that will occur over the next few days. If moderate rainfalls occur, water level increases will not be significant, but if heavier rains develop, higher increases could occur. This will be assessed as the rains develop.
Inflows upstream of Portage la Prairie are 47,420 cubic feet per second (cfs). Flows in the Portage Diversion channel are 29,580 cfs. Flows on the Assiniboine River at the Portage Reservoir control gates are 17,840 cfs.
Environment Canada has ended the strong wind warning for Lake Manitoba, Lake Winnipegosis and Lake Winnipeg.
Winds on Lake Manitoba are forecast to be from the southwest and reach 20 km/h today. Winds on Lake Winnipeg’s South Basin are forecast to be from the southeast and reach 27 km/h today. Winds on Lake Winnipegosis are forecast to be from the east and reach 18 km/h today.
A moderate wind setup alert is issued for the north basin of Lake Manitoba and the east shore of Lake Manitoba’s South Basin. A moderate wind setup alert is also issued for the west shore of Lake Winnipeg’s South Basin and the northeast shores of Oak Lake. This includes communities such as Gimli, Vogar, Lundar Beach and Steeprock.
Water levels on the Saskatchewan River at The Pas increased 0.12 feet since yesterday to 854 ft., with a flow of 66,000 cfs. Water levels are expected to reach 855.5 to 857 ft. by late June, depending on the weather.
Lakes
Forecast peaks are as follows, weather dependant:
• Lake Winnipeg: 716.9 ft. around mid-July. (Source: Manitoba Hydro)
• Lake Winnipegosis: between 835 and 835.5 ft.
• Lake Pineimuta: between 809 and 809.3 ft.
• Lake Manitoba: between 816.8 and 817 ft. around mid-July.
• Lake St. Martin: between 806 and 806.2 ft. around early August.
The estimated outflow from the Fairford River water control structure is 20,000 cfs today. The structure continues to operate at full capacity due to the high level of Lake Manitoba.
Water levels on Rock Lake declined 0.1 ft. since yesterday to their current level of 1,335.09 ft. The outlet at Pelican Lake is operating at full capacity.
Lake levels at Oak and Plum Lake are high and continue to contribute high flows to Plum Creek.
Lake inundation maps are available at www.manitoba.ca/flood as are current water levels, wave uprush illustrations, flood reports and flood sheets.
A high water advisory is in effect for all major lakes in Manitoba.
Assiniboine River
The flood warning for the Qu’Appelle River in the St-Lazare area has been downgraded to a flood watch. Water levels on the Qu’Appelle River declined yesterday, but have now increased slightly as a result of recent rains to a level of 16.4 ft., with a flow of 5,000 cfs.
Water levels on the Shellmouth Reservoir are 1,407.7 ft., decreasing 0.02 ft. since yesterday. Inflow into the Shellmouth Reservoir is 3,170 cfs and outflow is 3,290 cfs today.
Water levels on the Assiniboine River at the First Street Bridge in Brandon are at 1,177.8 ft., decreasing 0.19 ft. since yesterday. Flows at the First Street Bridge are estimated to be 20,000 cfs.
The Assiniboine River at the Portage la Prairie Reservoir reached a second crest of 50,000 cfs late June 11.
Water levels in the Baie St. Paul area are 799.9 ft., declining 0.01 ft. since yesterday.
The flood warning for the Assiniboine River at all points downstream of the Shellmouth Dam remains in effect.
Souris River
The flood warning for the Souris River remains in effect.
Plum Creek increased 0.4 ft. since yesterday to 1,375.98 ft. A flood warning for all reaches of Pipestone Creek and downstream into the Oak and Plum lakes system and on Plum Creek to the Souris River including the town of Souris remains in effect.
Water levels on the Souris River at Melita declined 0.19 ft. since yesterday to 1,411.04 ft. A revised forecast is now available for the Souris River at Melita. The Souris River at Melita is forecast to reach between 1,411.5 and 1,412 ft. by June 17 to 19.
The Souris River at the town of Souris crested at 1,360.86 ft on June 9 and at Wawanesa at 1,158.84 ft. on June 10. With rainfall values significantly above the current weather forecast, water levels may increase beyond these peaks.
Water levels on the Souris River at the town of Souris are 1,360.63 ft., with no change since yesterday. Water levels at Wawanesa declined 0.04 ft. since yesterday to 1,158.52 ft.
