Levels along Lake Manitoba and current weather conditions confirm the decisions of the local municipalities along Lake Manitoba in continuing to recommend mandatory evacuations and maintaining the closure of certain areas. Many roads are washed out, some are still under water, there are significant hazards from debris and a number of buildings are structurally unsound and dangerous. The Manitoba government supports the decisions of the municipalities in monitoring local conditions closely and assessing the local situation on an ongoing basis.
The Manitoba government has provided municipalities advance funds to prepare for and respond to flood demands, funds for engineering advice, information and resources about flood conditions and emergency responses, and access to equipment from pumps to flood barrier tubes. Emergency responses are managed by local municipalities with the support of the province.
The provincial Urban Search and Rescue Team (USAR) will support the rural municipalities of St. Laurent and Woodlands to assess damages and allow for a plan to escort residents to retrieve valuables from their homes and cottages. The 100-plus USAR team is co-ordinated by the Office of the Fire Commissioner.
Engineering studies are underway to look at potential outlets out of Lake Manitoba on an immediate and long-term basis. In addition, studies are underway to assess potential diking in areas of Lake Manitoba.
The one-stop office in St. Laurent will reopen on the weekend between 10 a.m. and 3 p.m. at the St. Laurent Royal Canadian Legion Hall to assist with compensation applications and other flood support.
Sandbags continue to be trucked into Lake Manitoba communities.
Rains are causing the Souris River and its tributaries to rise again. Dikes are being reinforced in the town of Souris and residents along the Souris River are advised to maintain and monitor existing dikes and other flood-protection systems.
In The Pas, work to reinforce and build permanent dikes is ongoing along the Saskatchewan River.
There are currently 2,523 Manitobans evacuated from their homes. The Manitoba Association of Native Firefighters (MANFF) has co-ordinated the evacuation of:
• an additional 15 people on June 14 from the Dauphin River First Nation due to loss of safe access;
• an additional 40 people on June 14 from the Little Saskatchewan First Nation, because of loss of safe access;
• eight people on June 14 from the Crane River First Nation as a precautionary measure;
• an additional eight people June 14 from the Long Plain First Nation, located along the Assiniboine River, as a precautionary measure; and
• an additional 20 people June 14 from the Sandy Bay First Nation, located along the west side of Lake Manitoba because of overland flooding and loss of safe road access.
An additional two people were evacuated on June 15 from the Lake Manitoba First Nation due to rising levels on Lake Manitoba.
There are 104 provincial roads affected by flooding, with 58 currently closed. There are also over 700 municipal roads affected or closed by flooding.
Flood Forecast Summary
The Souris area received 46 millimetres of rain, Wawanesa received 31 mm and Brandon received at least 17 mm of rain yesterday. The weather forecast indicates further rain for the rest of the week and into the weekend for much of southern Manitoba.
Environment Canada has issued a strong wind warning for Lake Manitoba, the South Basin of Lake Winnipeg and Lake Winnipegosis.
Wind set-up is expected to be light to moderate for all reported lakes today. Communities with moderate wind set-up risk include Sandy Bay, Meadow Portage, Spence Lake, Benyks Point, Winnipegosis and Gimli.
Water levels on the Saskatchewan River at The Pas increased 0.17 feet since yesterday to 854.24 ft., with a flow of 67,400 cubic feet per second (cfs). Water levels are expected to reach 855.5 to 857 ft. by late June, depending on the weather.
Lakes
A revised forecast has been developed for Lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba. Revised forecasts are as follows, weather dependant:
• Lake Winnipeg: 716.8 ft. around mid-July. (Source: Manitoba Hydro) Lake Winnipegosis: between 835 and 835.5 ft.
• Lake Pineimuta: between 809 and 809.3 ft. around mid-July.
• Lake Manitoba: between 817.3 and 817.5 ft. around mid-July.
• Lake St. Martin: between 806 and 806.2 ft. around mid-August.
• Dauphin Lake: between 860.6 and 861.2 ft. around the end of June.
Lake inundation maps have been updated for Lake Manitoba to an elevation of 817 ft. and are available at www.manitoba.ca/flood, as are current water levels, wave uprush illustrations, flood reports and flood sheets.
The estimated outflow from the Fairford River water control structure is 19,900 cfs today. The structure continues to operate at full capacity due to the high level of Lake Manitoba.
Water levels on Rock Lake declined 0.06 ft. since yesterday to 1,335.86 ft. today. The outlet at Pelican Lake is operating at full capacity.
Lake levels at Oak and Plum lakes are high and continue to contribute high flows to Plum Creek.
A high water advisory is in effect for all major lakes in Manitoba.
Assiniboine River
The Assiniboine River forecast is based on rainfall received over the last few days and rain in the current forecast and indicates:
• Water levels at Miniota are forecast to increase approximately 0.5 ft. to reach 1,244.1 ft. by June 21 and 23, then slowly recede.
• Water levels at the First Street Bridge in Brandon are forecast to increase approximately 0.5 ft. to reach between 1,178.7 and 1,178.9 ft. by June 19, then slowly recede.
• Flows at the Portage la Prairie Reservoir are forecast to reach between 49,000 and 50,000 cfs by June 20 and 21, then slowly recede.
The flood watch for the Qu’Appelle River in the St-Lazare area remains in effect. Water levels on the Qu’Appelle River have remained the same since yesterday at 16.57 ft., with a flow of
5,650 cfs.
Water levels on the Shellmouth Reservoir are 1,407.50 ft., decreasing 0.15 ft. since yesterday. Inflow into the Shellmouth Reservoir is 2,640 cfs and outflow is 3,285 cfs today.
Water levels on the Assiniboine River at the First Street Bridge in Brandon are at 1,178.29 ft., increasing 0.27 ft. since yesterday. Flows at the First Street Bridge are estimated to be 21,200 cfs.
Inflow upstream of Portage la Prairie is 42,620 cfs. Flows in the Portage Diversion channel are 24,650 cfs. Flows on the Assiniboine River at the Portage Reservoir control gates are 17,970 cfs.
Water levels in the Baie St. Paul area are 799.98 ft., with no change since yesterday.
The flood warning for the Assiniboine River at all points downstream of the Shellmouth Dam remains in effect.
Souris River
The Souris River forecast is based on rainfall received over the last few days and rain in the current forecast and indicates:
• Water levels at Melita are forecast to reach between 1,411.5 and 1,412 ft. around June 17 and 19, then slowly recede.
• Water levels at Souris are forecast to reach between 1,361 and 1,361.5 ft. around June 17, then slowly recede.
• Water levels at Wawanesa are forecast to reach between 1,158.9 and 1160 ft. around June 19, then slowly recede.
The flood warning for the Souris River remains in effect.
Plum Creek increased 0.86 ft. since yesterday to 1,376.84 ft. A flood warning for all reaches of Pipestone Creek and downstream into the Oak and Plum lakes system, then on Plum Creek to the Souris River including the town of Souris remains in effect.
Water levels at Wawanesa are unavailable as the gauge was hit by lightning and is being repaired today. Water levels at the town of Souris increased 0.22 ft. since yesterday to 1,361.1 ft. today. As a result of heavy rains, the Souris River at the town of Souris reached an instantaneous peak of 1,361.13 ft. yesterday, which is 1.27 ft. above the previous peak on April 23.
