The U.S. National Weather Service has upgraded the forecast flow on the Souris River at Westhope, N.D., to 26,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) between the end of June and beginning of July, based on observation of flow from Sherwood, N.D., to downstream areas. The water is moving faster than its normal speed and the crest will arrive sooner than expected. The forecast peak range translates to 1,425.45 feet to 1,425.95 ft. between July 3 and 5.
A revised forecast has been developed for the Souris River based on the increased flow forecast to arrive earlier at Westhope. The prior peak, forecast to occur at the end of June to the beginning of July, will no longer occur as peaks originally forecast for mid-July will be arriving earlier.
The revised Souris River forecast outlines the forecast peak flow, stage and date of occurrence for Melita, Souris and Wawanesa as well as the spring peaks and maximum peaks observed this year. The lower end of the forecast range was developed assuming favourable conditions (no further rain) and the upper end of the forecast range was developed assuming unfavourable conditions (25 to 30 millimetres of rainfall over saturated soils). The upper end of the forecast may change if additional rainfall is forecast.
The province continues to monitor, assess and update the forecast for the Souris River as new data becomes available and the water moves toward the Manitoba border.
There is an unstable weather system developing today and tomorrow which is forecast to bring up to 10 mm of rain over most of Alberta and Saskatchewan, southwestern Manitoba and the U.S. portion of the Souris River basin with localized cells bringing up to 30 mm over central Saskatchewan, southwestern Manitoba and U.S. portions of the Souris River basin, and up to 50 mm over central Alberta.
The Manitoba government has been in contact with communities and RMs along the Souris River yesterday and today. Provincial officials will meet with the four municipalities and four communities most impacted by the Souris River tomorrow to work out flood-fighting plans.
Dikes are now being reassessed and plans will be developed with the local communities. Some of the dikes built in the spring may be sufficient while others may need to be reinforced or raised. Specific plans are being developed in the next 48 hours.
At this time 2,695 Manitobans are evacuated.
There are currently 31 states of local emergencies (SoLE) and five prevention orders. Since the Manitoba Emergency Co-ordination Centre opened in early April for spring flooding, there have been 67 SoLEs and 31 prevention orders declared across the province by local authorities.
For more information, see www.manitoba.ca/flooding. The most up-to-date highway information is at www.gov.mb.ca/mit/roadinfo or 1-877-MBRoads (1-877-627-6237) and on Twitter by following @MBGov.
