Little or no precipitation is expected for the next five days. Milder temperatures and significant melting are expected to begin next Tuesday and most of the snow cover in southern Manitoba is expected to melt from April 7 to 10. The milder weather next week will cause river ice to move.
Flood Forecast
There is no change in the forecast for the Red River. Red River crests based on a slow melt and little additional precipitation will be higher than those of 2006 but lower than those of 1979. The forecast is being reviewed on a daily basis and an update will be issued if expectations change.
Winnipeg Floodway Operations:
• A crest of 5.9 to 6.3 metres (19.5 to 20.5 feet) is predicted on the Red River in the city of Winnipeg if ice does not move and floodway operation does not commence prior to April 9.
• The Red River Floodway was constructed to protect the city of Winnipeg and will operate again this year to divert flood waters.
• Operation of the floodway is usually not undertaken when ice is present at the inlet. This is an unusual year with unprecedented ice conditions, so contingency plans have been developed to address these unique circumstances. Over the next week, if the city’s river level will exceed 6.1 m (20 ft.) James Avenue within the next 24 hours, the floodway will be operated if necessary to avoid imminent flooding in Winnipeg. Operation would be done in accordance with the floodway’s Environment Act licence to protect vulnerable city properties outside of the primary dikes.
• Approximately 190 homes in Winnipeg outside of the primary diking system are at risk. These homeowners have been contacted by the City of Winnipeg and are sandbagging or putting up dikes. Homeowners who have not been contacted by the city are not at risk.
• Engineering staff with Manitoba Water Stewardship will assess river levels on an ongoing basis and advise the minister of water stewardship if they recommend the floodway gates be raised.
• If the gates are raised, properties south of the floodway inlet will experience a more rapid rise in river levels than otherwise expected, but these levels will not be above the predicted crest for this area of 233 m (765 ft.). Property in this area has been protected to 1997 plus 0.6 m (two ft.) levels and the rise and subsequent crest will be well below that protection. Some roads and land in this area will be flooded.
• If the above scenario occurs, ice-breaking equipment will be positioned at the St. Mary’s Road bridge over the floodway to break up any ice that may flow into the floodway channel.
Emerson to the Floodway Inlet:
• River ice will likely begin moving in the Emerson area this weekend and should move in the St. Adolphe to the floodway inlet area by about the middle of next week. Crests from Emerson to the floodway inlet are expected to occur under open water conditions after the ice has moved out with levels between those of 2006 and 1979. If a 25-millimetre (one-inch) rainstorm were to occur in Manitoba next week on top of snowmelt, levels would rise very close to those of 1979. There is only a small risk of ice jams which could cause levels to temporarily exceed those of 1979. The crest is expected at Emerson about April 9 and at St. Adolphe about April 15.
• Levels rose 0.4 m (1.4 ft.) at Emerson, 0.18 m (0.6 ft.) at Morris and three centimetres (0.1 ft.) at the floodway inlet during the 24-hour period ending this morning. The level at the floodway inlet this morning was 229.41 m (752.66 ft.) with a flow of 34,800 cubic feet per second (cfs). About 1,000 cfs was flowing into the floodway even though the gates have not been raised.
City of Winnipeg:
• The river level in downtown Winnipeg fell 0.1 m (one-third of a foot) to five m (16.7 ft.) during the 24‑hour period ending this morning. The decline was caused by shifting of the ice jam north of Lockport and reduced flows on the Assiniboine River. Rises are expected to resume in Winnipeg within a day or two and will become more rapid next week.
• Ice is expected to move out of Winnipeg and the floodway inlet area from April 7 to 9. If the ice does not move until the morning of April 9, a crest of 6.25 m (20.5 ft.) could occur just prior to ice movement and the start of floodway operations. This crest forecast includes the effect of minor ice jams at bridges but does not include the possibility of a serious ice jam. The threat of ice jamming in the city is considerable due to the large number of bridges and the above-average ice strength. While ice jams have not raised river levels in the city by more than 0.5 m (1.5 ft.) in recent history, it is possible that a somewhat greater rise could occur this spring if ice jams develop.
• Levels in downtown Winnipeg are expected to remain below 19 feet after the ice has moved out and the floodway is in operation. The crest, which passed through Grand Forks yesterday, is expected to arrive in the Winnipeg area about April 16. Since river ice will be gone by that time and the Red River Floodway will be in operation, the open water crest in Winnipeg on April 16 will be about 5.6 m (18.5 ft.). Without flood controls, including floodway operation, it would be near 7.6 m (25 ft.).
Lockport to Breezy Point:
• The ice jam at Lower Fort Garry appears to have shifted during the past 24 hours since the level at Lockport has fallen by 0.5 m (1.5 ft.) during this period. It is possible that this ice will arrive at the city of Selkirk as early as today or tomorrow.
• It is unlikely that levels from St. Andrews to Lower Fort Garry will rise above those experienced last week since increased river flow will likely move the remaining ice out and prevent such levels from occurring.
• Winter ice is still in place from Selkirk to Breezy Point.
• Crests in this portion of the river will depend on the occurrence and severity of ice jams, which are unpredictable. Ice in this area is expected to begin moving April 5 to 10 so the risk of ice jams is greatest during this period.
• Ice-cutting and breaking activities have reduced the risk of serious ice jams developing. It is unlikely that the extreme levels of 2007 and 1996 will be repeated between Selkirk and Breezy Point.
• The level at Selkirk this morning is the same as yesterday morning but some fluctuations in levels has begun.
Assiniboine River and Other Areas:
• The flow on the Assiniboine River at Portage la Prairie was 5,320 cfs this morning, of which 2,760 cfs was diverted into Lake Manitoba. The outflow from Shellmouth Reservoir remains at 200 cfs. Minor flooding is expected along the Assiniboine River from St. Lazare to Grand Valley, likely around Easter time.
• River levels in western Manitoba and the Interlake are quite low and stable. Rises will develop next week following warmer temperatures and snow melt.
• A potential for minor flooding still exists in the Interlake region where run-off has been delayed due to cool weather.
• The flood potential for the Westlake area is quite low. Minor localized flooding may occur late next week.
• The flood potential remains low from Swan River to The Pas.
Flood Response
• The Amphibex ice breakers are now working near north of Selkirk and breaking ice just north of the PTH 4 bridge.
• There are currently 31 steamer units working in southern Manitoba. The remaining six will be working in the next few days bringing the total to 37. This number includes the 24 additional steamers purchased by the province to deal with frozen culverts this spring.
• The province has expedited the delivery of Aquadam flood tubes with 1,525 m (5,000 lineal ft.) being delivered every day over the next five days resulting in a total of 7,620 m (25,000 lineal ft.). The initial shipments of these one-metre (three-ft.) -high flood barriers will go to the city of Winnipeg if needed, to strengthen the protection of low-lying areas on the river side of the city’s primary diking system.
• Manitoba Hydro is continuing to operate the Selkirk Thermal Electric Plant to increase the melt rate on the Red River north of the plant. Manitoba Hydro will be monitoring ice conditions to determine the benefit of operating the plant.
Evacuations
• The Manitoba Association of Native Fire Fighters (MANFF) in consultation with Roseau River First Nation residents have undertaken a partial return of evacuees to their homes. The MANFF is co‑ordinating this return process. At this time, 481 residents remain in Winnipeg.
• A partial evacuation of 28 homes on the Sioux Valley Dakota First Nation remains in place. Affected residents are in Virden. Local road access on the First Nation has been threatened by rising creek levels, but no homes have been flooded.
Road Conditions
• Once snow and ice begins to melt, road conditions can change very quickly. Before travelling in flood-prone areas, check www.manitoba.ca or call 204-945-3704 or 1-877-627-6237.
