No precipitation is expected for the rest of this week. Melting will be very gradual until Thursday with a more rapid melt beginning Friday. Snow in the Red River Valley should be melted by next Saturday and most of the snow in western Manitoba should be melted by Easter Monday.
Flood Forecast
• Red River crests from Emerson to the floodway inlet have been revised downward by 0.15 metres (0.5 feet) due to dry weather and gradual melting. Forecasts for the Winnipeg area and for points north to Selkirk and Breezy Point remain unchanged due to the possibility of ice jamming.
• The U.S. National Weather Service has indicated that a second crest is possible at some U.S. locations on the Red River if adverse weather conditions develop. It is very unlikely that a second crest would occur in the Manitoba portion in late April or May, but the possibility exists if heavy rain develops in the weeks to come.
• Further details are provided below and specific forecasted crest stages are shown on the daily flood sheets issued by Manitoba Water Stewardship.
Emerson to the Floodway Inlet:
• Predicted crests from Emerson to the floodway inlet have been reduced by 0.15 m (0.5 ft.) due to a gradual melt and anticipated dry weather. Crests in this portion will be similar to those of 2006, unless ice jams develop or if significant rainfall develops next week.
• Crests from Emerson to the floodway inlet are expected to occur under open water conditions after the ice has moved out. River ice has moved out of the Emerson area and is expected to begin moving at points from Letellier to the floodway inlet over the next few days.
There is a small risk of ice jams temporarily raising levels to those of 1979. The crest is expected at Emerson on April 9 and at the floodway inlet about April 16.
• Levels rose 0.18 m (0.6 ft.) at Emerson, and 0.41 m (1.35 ft.) at Morris during the 24-hour period ending this morning. The level at the floodway inlet this morning was 229.8 m (753.92 ft.), a rise of 0.17 m (0.55 ft.) from yesterday morning. The flow into the Red River Floodway is estimated at 3,800 cubic feet per second (cfs) this morning of a total 43,200 cfs upstream of the floodway inlet.
Floodway flows are occurring even though the floodway control structure has not yet been operated because water is flowing naturally into the inlet.
City of Winnipeg:
• The river level in downtown Winnipeg rose 7.6 cm (a quarter foot) to 5.18 m (17 ft.) during the 24-hour period ending this morning. River levels in Winnipeg will increase more rapidly during the next few days and could reach 5.48 m (18 ft.) by Wednesday morning.
• There will most likely be two crests in Winnipeg this spring. The first crest of up to 6.25 m (20.5 ft.) is expected April 7 to 8 as a result of ice conditions. The second crest, resulting from the flow crest coming from the United States, is expected around April 17 and will be only about
5.48 m (18 ft.). The second crest is lower since ice will be gone and the Red River Floodway will be in full operation. The second crest will be about 2.1 m (7 ft.) lower than it would be without the floodway and other provincial flood control works.
• The magnitude of the crest in Winnipeg will depend very much on when river ice moves out of the city and from the floodway inlet area. It is likely that ice will move no later than April 7 to 8. There is a small risk that levels could rise above 6.25 m (20.5 ft.) if a serious ice jam develops. In recent history, ice jams have not raised water levels in the city by more than 0.5 m (1.5 ft.). The Amphibex ice breaker is being deployed to try to break up ice jams in the city if necessary.
• The floodway will operate this year as soon as ice is flowing freely at the inlet structure. However, earlier operation with ice in place may be required due to a combination of high flows and potential ice jams. If the city’s river level is predicted to exceed 6.1 m (20 ft.) at James Avenue within a 24-hour period, the floodway will be operated as necessary to avoid imminent flooding in Winnipeg. This operation would follow the floodway’s Environment Act licence to protect the city of Winnipeg.
• The Red River crest is presently at Drayton, N.D.
Lockport to Breezy Point:
• Crests in this portion of the river will depend on the occurrence and severity of ice jams, which are unpredictable. Ice is expected to begin moving later this week (April 8 to 10). Reports indicate the ice is gradually weakening. Ice-cutting and breaking activities have reduced the risk of serious ice jams developing and therefore it is unlikely the extreme levels of 2007 and 1996 will be repeated.
The Red River rose only 6.1 centimetres (0.2 ft.) at Selkirk during the 24-hour period ending this morning.
• With movement of the ice jam at Lower Fort Garry, it is unlikely that levels from St. Andrews to Lower Fort Garry will again rise above those experienced during the ice jam in late March. The river level at Lockport declined 0.21 m (0.7 ft.) since yesterday, due to further movement and deterioration of the ice jam.
Assiniboine River:
• Minor flooding is expected along the Assiniboine River from St. Lazare to Grand Valley later this month. Moderate to high flows are expected in the Portage la Prairie area late in April due to high levels coming from the Souris River.
• The flow on the Assiniboine River at Portage la Prairie was 4,845 cfs this morning, of which 2,660 cfs was diverted into Lake Manitoba. The flow in the river downstream of the diversion was reduced to 1,500 cfs from 2,185 cfs at 11 a.m. today in order to further reduce flows in Winnipeg.
• The outflow from Shellmouth Reservoir remains at 200 cfs. The water level of Shellmouth Reservoir has risen little so far this spring and with a slow melt reducing run-off, the outflow may soon be reduced further.
Souris River:
• Levels of the Souris River will be rising in the Coulter area this week. Releases from the J. Clarke Salyer Refuge in North Dakota River were increased to 500 cfs today and will be increased to 1,000 cfs late this week. A crest of about 0.3 m (one foot) lower than that of 1999 is still expected several weeks from now.
Other Rivers:
• Minor flooding is still anticipated in the Interlake region next week following snowmelt. The flooding will be similar in magnitude to that of 2007. Some diking may be required at the Peguis First Nation and the community of Fisher River, where ice often causes water to back up and flood low-lying properties.
• There will be considerable overland flooding in the Interlake region following renewed snowmelt starting late this week and this is likely to continue until near the end of April or longer depending on weather conditions. Due to concerns with the number of frozen culverts, additional staff will be sent to the area to steam culverts. Equipment and staff will also be available from the province to assist with ice jam removal at the Fisher River bridges, if required.
• Levels of the Pembina River remain relatively low but will increase next week following the significant snowmelt expected this weekend. Flooding of the Pembina Valley from Rock Lake to La Riviere is anticipated but levels should be lower that those of 2006. No difficulties are expected in the Gretna area.
• The flood potential for the Westlake area is quite low. Minor localized flooding may occur late next week.
• The flood potential remains low from Swan River to The Pas.
Flood Response
• PTH 75 on both the north and south end of Morris will be closed at noon tomorrow. There will be limited local traffic at the south side of Morris but no access for semi-trailers or heavy commercial loads. Detours will be marked and detour maps are at www.manitoba.ca.
• The St. Jean Bridge on PR 246 at the Red River is closed. Traffic has been rerouted in the area. The province is using concrete barriers to protect the bridge against ice and high river flows.
• Dike closures have begun today at railway locations at Emerson and St. Jean Baptiste.
• Motorists should check highway conditions before travelling at www.manitoba.ca or call 204-945-3704 or toll-free at 1-877-627-6237.
• So far, the province has received reports of flood damages to 27 homes north of Winnipeg, 10 in the RM of West St. Paul, 15 in the RM of St. Andrews and two in the RM of St. Clements.
• One Amphibex has been located near the Redwood Bridge in Winnipeg. The second Amphibex will be on standby at the south Perimeter bridge. Equipment (track excavators with extended reach) will be positioned today at the St. Mary’s Road Bridge over the floodway to address potential ice jams.
• Tomorrow, the Wolverine ice-cutting equipment will start weakening the ice on the Icelandic River upstream of the bridge in Riverton.
• There are now 37 steamers in the province and 20 are currently working in areas north and south of Winnipeg and throughout the Red River Valley.
• Three tiger dam trailers have been deployed to RMs north of the city and one has been deployed to the city of Winnipeg to assist in flood control and protection efforts. Today, 1,828.8 m (6,000 ft.) of Aquadam is being used within the city of Winnipeg.
• An additional 10 Tiger Dam trailer systems, including an additional 1,000 15.25-m (50-foot) flood tubes dams have been purchased resulting in 15 trailer systems for the province. In addition, a total of 7,620 m (25,000 lineal feet) of larger one-metre (three-ft.) high flood tubes called Aquadams are being delivered progressively until April 8.
• There are three Flood Liaison Offices in operation. They are open seven days a week from 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. and are located in Winnipeg (945-2354), Morris (204-746-7325) and Brandon (204-729-1220).
