Some showers are expected over southern Manitoba tonight and from Friday night to Saturday with total amounts in the five to 10 millimetre (0.2 to 0.4 inch) range. The Assiniboine River upstream of Miniota and areas from Dauphin to Gypsumville may receive 15 to 25 mm (0.6 to 0.9 in.) of rain. The U.S. portions of the Red and Souris rivers are also expected to receive little rain.
• A continued rapid melt is contributing to higher levels on Red River tributaries and resulting in further forecasted increases for some areas of the river.
• The 2009 flood will now surpass 1979 and 1950 levels in areas from St. Jean Baptiste to the floodway inlet. This makes 2009 the second-greatest flood since the floods of the 1800s. Levels for the 1997 flood were still about 0.6 metres (two feet) higher than crests expected this year.
• Many areas of Manitoba are also experiencing overland flash flooding caused by frozen, saturated soil and crests in many locations are lasting longer than usual.
• This combination of events has resulted in a serious flood situation that could last for several weeks.
• Manitobans in flood zones need to maintain a high level of vigilance. Residents should also maintain contact with their municipality regarding appropriate protection levels for their property to ensure previous flood-proofing measures will be effective.
Floodway:
• The floodway is continuing to manage levels within Winnipeg. Floodway operation is designed to hold levels at James Avenue at no higher than 7.5 m (24.5 ft.) to ensure protection behind the city’s primary dikes. Levels at James Avenue have remained below 7.5 m (24.5 ft.) during the 2009 flood. The current requirement for higher dikes in the city is for properties located outside the primary dikes.
• The level of the Red River at James Avenue today would be about 2.7 m (8.7 ft.) higher than its current level of 6.6 m (21.6 ft.) if the floodway, the Portage Diversion and the Shellmouth Dam were not operating to protect Winnipeg.
• The recent work to expand the floodway channel is designed for a flood that would exceed 1997 levels. This means the extra capacity that is now available is not required for the 2009 flood.
City of Winnipeg:
• The Red River rose 15.2 centimetres (0.5 feet) in downtown Winnipeg during the 24-hour period ending this morning. High flows on local streams such as Sturgeon Creek and the La Salle River contributed to the rise. Rising flows on the Assiniboine River and on the Red River south of Winnipeg also played a part in the increase.
• The predicted crest in the city of Winnipeg has been raised to 6.9 m (22.6 ft.) based on the latest assessment of river conditions and tributary flows from Emerson to Winnipeg. The crest is expected on Saturday, April 18. The reason for the increase is the extended crest at Emerson, higher tributary flow, and the coincidence if the Assiniboine and Red River crests.
• The river level at James Avenue this morning was 6.6 m (21.6 ft.)
Lockport to Breezy Point:
• Levels in this portion are at 0.6 to 0.9 m (two to three ft.) lower than recent crests resulting from ice jams last weekend. Levels are expected to rise about 0.46 m (1.5 ft.) further by the time the flow crest arrives during the coming weekend. Some flooding is expected to continue at Petersfield and Breezy Point but levels with the flow crest will be significantly lower than those which occurred with ice.
Emerson to St. Adolphe:
• Crest forecasts from Ste. Agathe to St. Adolphe have been raised 0.15 m (0.5 ft.) further based on the updated assessment. Crests from St. Jean Baptiste to Morris have been raised be less than 7.6 cm (0.25 ft.).
• Crests of the Red River are expected at Morris on Saturday and at St. Adolphe next Monday.
• Levels rose three cm (0.1 ft.) at Emerson, and 12.1 cm (0.4 ft.) at Morris during the 24-hour period ending this morning.
• Levels in the United States portion declined slightly from Halstad to Grand Forks and still remained steady at Drayton during the past 24 hours.
• So far this spring, the Red River has risen 11.21 m (36.8 ft.) at Emerson, 10.2 m (33.5 ft.) at Morris and 10 m (32.9 ft.) at the floodway inlet.
Floodway Inlet:
• The water level upstream of the floodway inlet this morning was 233.4 m (765.67 ft.), a rise of 0.12 m (0.39 ft.) since yesterday morning. The flow into the Red River Floodway this morning was estimated at 38,400 cubic feet per second (cfs) of a total 89,100 cfs upstream of the floodway inlet.
Assiniboine River:
• A second wave of heavy ice flows entered the Portage Reservoir (Crescent Lake) overnight resulted in much-increased inflows. The total flow into the reservoir at 9 a.m. today was 27,790 cfs of which 19,900 cfs was diverted into Lake Manitoba via the Portage Diversion. Flows down the river have been in the 7,000 to 8,000 cfs range for the past two days since it was not possible to divert more water under ice conditions. River flows will be reduced to 4,000 cfs later today to help reduce the crest in Winnipeg and to reduce ice jamming from Portage la Prairie to Winnipeg.
• Levels of the Assiniboine River from Portage la Prairie to Winnipeg will be rising above flood stage over the next few days as a result of the high flows at Portage and high local inflows. Residents are advised to prepare for levels as high as they have encountered during the past 10 years. Ice is reported as being quite weak and if ice moves early, crests could be somewhat lower than presently predicted.
• Flooding continues along the Assiniboine River from St. Lazare to Griswold. The crest is between Miniota and Virden this morning. Additional rises of 0.3 to 0.6 m (one to two ft.) are expected in the portion from Virden to Brandon with crests late this week.
• Some flooding may occur on Assiniboine tributaries from Brandon to Birtle later this week.
• The outflow from Shellmouth Reservoir was reduced to 50 cfs this morning. The water level of Shellmouth Reservoir rose 0.3 m (0.9 ft.) since yesterday morning and stood at 425.3 m (1,393.5 ft.) this morning. The level is expected to rise to 426.7 m (1,400 ft.) by the end of this month.
Souris River:
• Levels of the Souris River are beginning to rise more rapidly. Over-bank flows in the Coulter area will spread to areas further north by late next week. A crest exceeding that of 1999 by 0.3 to 0.6 m (one to two ft.) is still expected at the end of this month or in early May. Some diking will be required in the south portions of Melita and just south of Souris. Extensive agricultural flooding will occur.
Pembina River:
• Levels of the Pembina River are rising quite rapidly and the anticipated flooding of the Pembina Valley is now underway. It appears that levels will exceed those observed in 2006 by about 0.3 m (one ft.).
• The level of Rock Lake was reported at 408.3 m (1,339.4 ft.) this morning, a rise of 0.2 m (0.67 ft.) from yesterday. This level is among the highest on record. Little further rise is expected.
• Levels have risen rapidly in the North Dakota portion from Walhalla to Neche in recent days. The U.S. National Weather Service predicts a level of 6.5 m (21.5 ft.) at Neche, which is similar to the crest of 2006. Actions have been taken to protect Gretna from possible overflows. Overtopping of the boundary road east of Gretna is unlikely but heavy culvert flows are expected into Manitoba.
Other Rivers:
• The Icelandic and Fisher rivers have risen to flood stage with minor additional rises expected before the crest occurs later this week. Crests of the Fisher River will be similar to those of 2006 with significant flooding of low portions of the river for the rest of this week. Diking is underway at Peguis First Nation, which is being closely monitored. Some flooding is expected in low-lying area of the Icelandic River until ice has moved out.
• The flood potential for the Westlake area is quite low. Minor localized flooding may occur late next week.
• The flood potential remains low from Swan River to The Pas.
Overland Flooding
• Overland flooding continues in many portions of southern Manitoba, especially in the Red River Valley and the Interlake, and this will continue through the coming weekend. Flash flooding such as that which occurred recently could develop in other low-lying areas. Residents in low-lying areas are advised to take precautions against possible sudden rises.
• The provincial government has taken action to minimize overland flooding by steaming frozen culverts and opening blocked drains.
• Further details are provided below and specific forecasted crest stages are shown on the daily flood sheets issued by Manitoba Water Stewardship.
Flood Response
• (Information provided this afternoon in Bulletin #26 is still accurate, plus the following.) Flood fighting efforts continue in the RMs of St. Clements, St. Andrews, West St. Paul and East St. Paul. Residents should maintain their dikes and not take them down until notified by their rural municipality.
• It is estimated there are currently 975 square kilometres of agricultural land under water in the flood zone, or 97,500 hectares (243,750 acres). This is about half the amount of land that was affected in 1997.
Evacuations
• An evacuation of the personal-care home in St. Adolphe will begin this evening as a precautionary measure. Approximately 40 residents will be moved to Winnipeg. The St. Adolphe Personal Care Home, the South Eastman Manitoba Regional Health Authority and the Winnipeg Regional Health Authority are co-ordinating the placement of residents according to the level of care required and the location of family. Family members of residents are being contacted.
• A partial evacuation is also underway from Peguis First Nation through the Manitoba Association of Native Fire Fighters (MANFF). MANFF has started an evacuation of 119 residents to Winnipeg this afternoon.
• All evacuees are strongly urged to register with the Red Cross registration phone line at 1-888-662-3211 which operates 9 a.m. to 8 p.m. This will help connect people with their municipalities and other information about the flood.
