Little or no precipitation is expected over southern Manitoba for the next five days. The Assiniboine River upstream of Russell and areas from Dauphin to Gypsumville may receive 15 to 25 millimetres (0.6 to one inch) of rain during the next few days. The U.S. portions of the Red and Souris rivers are also expected to receive little rain.
Unpredictable ice conditions on the Assiniboine River have increased Red River water levels in Winnipeg while forecasted levels in some other parts of the Red River Valley are now somewhat lower based on the latest available information for river and tributary flows.
City of Winnipeg:
• The crest is occurring two days earlier than expected due to earlier ice movement on the Assiniboine River.
• The Red River rose nearly 0.3 m (one ft.) in downtown Winnipeg last night due to a strong ice run on the Assiniboine River.
• Levels of the Assiniboine River in Winnipeg also rose sharply last evening because of the ice run and remain high today, but are also at the crest.
• High flows on local streams such as Sturgeon Creek and the La Salle River also contributed to the crest in Winnipeg which is the second highest since major flood control works began operation in 1969. The crest of 6.9 m (22.5 ft.) in Winnipeg is 0.6 m (two ft.) lower than that of 1997.
• The Red River will begin a very gradual decline tomorrow and remain above six m (20 ft.) until the middle of next week. Assiniboine River levels west of Route 90 will decline quite rapidly beginning tomorrow morning as the effects of increased Portage Diversion operation reach the city.
• Without operation of the floodway, the Portage Diversion and the Shellmouth Dam, the level of the Red River at James Avenue today would be 9.6 m (31.55 ft.), about 2.7 m (nine ft.) higher than its current level of 6.9 m (22.5 ft).
Floodway:
• Manitoba Water Stewardship engineers report that despite the difficulties of managing floodway gate operations with ice in place, they have been able to maintain levels south of the floodway control structure at or below natural levels throughout the 2009 flood.
• During operation of the floodway gates, residents living south of the floodway inlet will observe river levels rise in their area with each gate adjustment. This is because lifting the floodway gates causes a backwater effect that raises water levels upstream and forces more water into the floodway channel. However, the department works diligently to ensure the water level south of the inlet is somewhat below natural just before each upward gate adjustment and that each upward adjustment increases the water level to no higher than natural.
• Through this normal operation of the floodway, the city of Winnipeg remains protected without causing artificial flooding of property and roads south of the floodway inlet.
Lockport to Breezy Point:
• Levels in this portion are still 0.6 m to 0.9 m (two to three ft.) lower than recent crests resulting from ice jams last weekend. Levels are expected to rise about 0.3 m (one ft.) further before the crest occurs this weekend. Levels with the flow crest will be significantly lower than those which occurred with ice and flooding should be limited to the lowest-lying cottages at Breezy Point.
Emerson to St. Adolphe:
• Crest forecasts from St. Agathe to the floodway inlet have been lowered by about 15.2 centimetres (half a foot). Crest forecasts from Emerson to Morris remain unchanged.
• Crests in the portion from Morris to the floodway inlet will be a little higher than those of 1950 and the second highest on record. Levels for the 1997 flood were still about 0.6 m (two ft.) higher than crests expected this year.
• The crest is expected to occur at Emerson and Letellier today and from Morris to the floodway inlet this weekend.
• Levels rose 1.2 cm (0.04 feet) at Emerson, and 8.2 cm (0.27 feet) at Morris during the 24‑hour period ending this morning.
• Levels in the United States portion continue to decline very slowly although some rises persist in the Fargo area.
• So far this spring, the Red River has risen 11.2 m (36.8 ft.) at Emerson, 10.3 m (33.8 ft.) at Morris and 10 m (33.1 ft.) at the floodway inlet.
Floodway Inlet:
• The water level upstream of the floodway inlet this morning was 233.4 m (765.83 ft.), a rise of 4.9 cm (0.16 ft.) since yesterday morning. The flow into the Red River Floodway this morning was estimated at 39,100 cubic feet per second (cfs) of a total 90,100 cfs upstream of the floodway inlet.
Assiniboine River:
• Flows into Portage Reservoir declined from 27,790 cfs yesterday morning to 19,880 cfs this morning. A more gradual decline is expected for the next five days. The flow in the Portage Diversion this morning was 17,850 cfs and the flow in the river downstream was 2,020 cfs. River flows toward Winnipeg were further reduced yesterday to reduce levels along the Assiniboine River and in Winnipeg.
• Flooding along the Assiniboine River from Baie St. Paul to Winnipeg is no longer predicted since ice moved out two days earlier than expected. There is little ice remaining in the river.
• The Assiniboine River is cresting in the area of Lido Plage Road to Winnipeg this morning. Levels will decline rapidly in this portion starting tomorrow. Levels from Portage la Prairie to Baie St. Paul have declined by half, 0.6 to 0.9 m (two to three ft.) since yesterday due to Portage Diversion operation and ice moving out of the river.
• Flooding continues along the Assiniboine River from St. Lazare to Griswold. The crest is presently in the Virden area. Additional rises of 15 cm (half a foot) at Griswold and 0.3 m (one ft.) at Brandon are expected before the crest occurs this weekend.
• Some flooding may occur on Assiniboine tributaries from Brandon to Birtle from today through the weekend.
• The outflow from Shellmouth Reservoir is at 50 cfs this morning. The water level of Shellmouth Reservoir has risen 0.3 m (one ft.) since yesterday and stood at 425 m (1,394.5 ft.) this morning. The level is expected to rise to at least 426.7 m (1,400 ft.) by the end of April. The normal summer level is 427.5 m (1,402.5 ft.).
Souris River:
• Levels of the Souris River in Manitoba are still rising quite slowly. Over-bank flows are still limited to the Coulter area but will spread to areas further north by late next week. A crest exceeding that of 1999 by about 0.3 m (one ft.) is expected at the end of April or in early May. Some diking will be required in the south portions of Melita and just south of Souris. Extensive agricultural flooding will occur.
Pembina River:
• Flooding of the Pembina Valley is now underway. Levels from Rock Lake to La Rivière are expected to exceed to exceed those of 2006 by about 0.3 m (one ft.).
• The Pembina River rose more than 0.3 m (one ft.) at La Rivière since yesterday and will continue to rise until the crest near the middle of next week.
• Rock Lake crested at 408.25 m (1,339.4 ft.) yesterday and had declined to 408.16 m (1,339.1 ft.) this morning. This crest is among the highest on record.
• Flows remain high at Windygates but have changed little since yesterday. The crest at Windygates next week should be lower than that of 2006 unless significant rainfall develops. The U.S. National Weather Service is predicting little change in the present level of 6.6 m (21.6 ft.) at Neche for the next week. Manitoba Water Stewardship and Manitoba Infrastructure and Transportation staff are closely monitoring possible overflows at the international boundary. Overtopping of the boundary road east of Gretna is unlikely but heavy culvert flows are expected into Manitoba.
Other Rivers:
• The Icelandic and Fisher rivers are both bank full with minor flooding of low-lying areas. Crests of the Fisher River will be similar to those of 2006 and are expected to occur today. Diking is underway at Peguis Reserve. Some flooding is expected in low-lying areas of the Icelandic River until ice has moved out.
• The flood potential for the Westlake area is quite low. Minor localized flooding may occur late next week.
• The flood potential remains low from Swan River to The Pas.
Overland Flooding
• Overland flooding continues in many portions of southern Manitoba, especially in the Red River Valley and the Interlake and this will continue through the coming weekend. Flash flooding such as that which occurred recently could develop in other low-lying areas. Residents in low-lying areas are advised to take precautions against possible sudden rises.
• Further details are provided below and specific forecasted crest stages are shown on the daily flood sheets issued by Manitoba Water Stewardship.
Flood Stress
• When floods threaten individuals, families and communities, people can experience stress.
• There are a number of organizations across the province that can help deal with flood-related stress. Manitobans are encouraged to ask for help if they need it. A complete listing is available at www.manitoba.ca or at Health Links – Info Santé at 788-8200 (Winnipeg) or 1-888-315-9257 (toll-free).
Flood Response
• To assist residents of flood damaged areas, Manitoba Emergency Measures Organization staff will be available next week from April 21 to 24 at the Selkirk Civic Centre (200 Eaton Ave., Selkirk) and will be able to provide information and applications for Disaster Financial Assistance from 11 a.m. to 7 p.m.
