Rain and snow with 10 to 15 millimetres (0.4 to 0.6 inches) precipitation is expected over the U.S. portion of the Red River watershed Thursday night to Saturday. Precipitation over southern Manitoba is expected be less than five mm (0.2 in.) with a possible 10 mm (0.4 in.) near the U.S. boundary. Moderate south winds are predicted over the Red River Valley for tomorrow afternoon and evening followed by moderate northerly winds from Thursday afternoon through early Saturday.
City of Winnipeg:
• The Red River level at James Avenue in Winnipeg this morning was 6.3 metres (20.60 feet), a decline of seven cm (2.75 in.) from yesterday morning. The decline was mainly due to decreasing flows on the Assiniboine River and on local streams.
• The decline of river levels in Winnipeg will be gradual for the next few weeks even with favourable weather due to the need to gradually lower the gates on the floodway control structure at St. Norbert. The gates must be lowered gradually since natural river levels at the floodway inlet will be declining slowly and controlled levels must remain just below the natural levels.
• The Red River watershed is saturated at this time so river levels would quickly change if significant rainfall were to develop in the coming weeks. Another crest is possible if heavy rain develops over the next few weeks.
• The crest of 6.9 m (22.5 ft.) at James Avenue in Winnipeg was the second highest since major flood control works began operation in 1969. The crest was 7.5 m (24.5 ft.) in 1997.
Lockport to Breezy Point:
• Levels in this portion will continue to decline very slowly for the rest of this week. Levels from Lockport to Breezy Point have declined about three cm (1.19 in.) since yesterday morning.
Emerson to St. Adolphe:
• Levels from St. Jean Baptiste to the floodway inlet remained virtually unchanged from those recorded yesterday. Levels from Emerson to Letellier and from Lockport to Breezy Point declined three cm to six cm (1.19 to 2.36 in.).
• River levels will decline very slowly during the rest of the week at most locations. However, levels could fluctuate by up to 0.15 m (0.5 ft.), not including waves, in areas between Letellier and Morris due to wind action from late tomorrow through Saturday. Levels will decline faster next week unless rainfall is heavier than predicted.
• Strong winds and wave action can raise water levels by 0.3 m (one foot) or more and wave action can erode dikes. Vigilance with respect to wind is recommended from tomorrow through the weekend.
• Levels in the United States portion are continuing to decline slowly.
• The area flooded by the Red River is presently estimated 1,680 square kilometres based on Radarsat images.
• So far this spring, the Red River has risen 10.4 m (34.2 ft.) at Morris.
Floodway Inlet:
• The water level upstream of the floodway inlet this morning was 233.7 m (766.61 ft.), a decline of 0.6 cm (0.24 in) since yesterday morning. The flow into the Red River Floodway this morning was 42,670 cubic feet per second (cfs) of a total 97,370 cfs upstream of the floodway inlet.
Assiniboine River:
• Flow into the Portage Reservoir declined from 14,200 cfs yesterday morning to 14,000 cfs this morning. A gradual decline is expected to continue for the next five days. The flow in the Portage Diversion this morning was 13,510 cfs and the flow in the river downstream was 490 cfs. River flows toward Winnipeg will be increased once levels in the city of Winnipeg are below flood stage.
• Assiniboine River levels from Baie St. Paul to Winnipeg will decline slowly for the rest of this week.
• Flooding continues along the Assiniboine River from Virden to Brandon although river levels are declining slowly. Valley flooding should end within a week or so if there is little rain but it will take additional weeks for water to drain from the valley floor. Levels from Virden to Grand Valley would be at least 0.6 m (two ft.) higher at this time without the operation of the Shellmouth Dam.
• The outflow from Shellmouth Reservoir remains at 50 cfs. The reservoir water level has risen 0.18 m (0.6 ft.) since yesterday and stood at 426.1 m (1,398.0 ft.) this morning. The level is expected to rise close to the normal summer level of 427.5 m (1,402.5 ft.) by early May.
Souris River:
• The Souris River at Melita rose 12.2 cm (4.8 in.) since yesterday morning and stood at 427.9 m (1,403.74 ft.) this morning. A steady rise to between 429.5 and 429.8 m (1,409 to 1,410 ft.) is expected by the end of this month.
• Significant over-bank flooding is underway from the U.S. boundary to just south of Melita. Minor over-bank flows will develop in areas from Melita to Souris by late next week.
• The crest forecast for the Souris River was reduced by 0.3 m (one ft.) yesterday based on the latest flow projections at the international border issued by the U.S. National Weather Service. Crests in the Manitoba portion will be similar to those of 1999.
• The duration of flooding on the Souris River should be much shorter than in 1999 unless unusually heavy rain develops as in 1999. Flooding that year extended into June.
Pembina River:
• Flooding of the entire Pembina Valley continues but levels are declining at all points.
• The level declined a further 0.15 m (0.5 ft.) at La Rivière and 0.7 m (2.3 ft.) at Windygates during the 24-hour period ending this morning.
• Crests from Rock Lake to La Rivière have been similar to those of 1974, which was among the largest floods in recent decades.
• Rock Lake has declined 7.6 cm (three in.) since yesterday and was at 407.6 m (1,337.35 ft.) this morning. This crest four days ago was among the highest on record.
• The level of Pelican Lake was 412.4 m (1,353.15 ft.) yesterday and has declined in recent days due to the operation of the outlet control works.
• The U.S. National Weather Service indicates a crest of 6.6 m (21.68 ft.) occurred on the Pembina River at Neche this morning and that no further rise is expected.
• Minor boundary overflows may occur tomorrow evening if moderate southerly winds develop as expected.
• Manitoba Water Stewardship and Manitoba Infrastructure and Transportation staff are closely monitoring possible overflows at the international border. Actions have been taken to protect Gretna. Low-lying properties at Halbstadt will be sandbagged if boundary overflows develop.
Other Rivers:
• Both the Fisher and Icelandic rivers have crested but levels remain high and flooding continues at the Peguis First Nation.
• Extensive overland flooding continues in the Interlake region with many roads overtopped or washed out. Conditions will begin to improve later this week if the weather is favourable, but some flooding will continue for several weeks.
• All tributaries of the Red River have now crested.
• The flood potential for the Westlake area is quite low. Minor localized flooding may occur late next week.
• The flood potential remains low from Swan River to The Pas.
Overland Flooding
• Overland flooding continues in many portions of southern Manitoba, especially in the Red River Valley and the Interlake but is expected to gradually subside this week based on favourable weather. Flooding could quickly increase if significant rainfall were to develop. Residents in
low-lying areas are advised to take precautions against possible sudden rises.
• Further details are provided below and specific forecasted crest stages are shown on the daily flood sheets issued by Manitoba Water Stewardship.
Flood Response
• The total number of evacuees is 2,470. Approximately 1,204 people have registered with the Red Cross. Indian and Northern Affairs Canada reports 1,266 First Nations people have registered with the Manitoba Association of Fire Fighters. This number does not include people that have self-evacuated and not registered. The 236 evacuees from Roseau River First Nation have started to return home and the 53 evacuees from Sioux Valley have now returned home.
• Extensive overland flooding continues in the Interlake region, with many roads and minor culverts washed out. Steaming of frozen culverts is continuing in the Interlake region.
• To assist residents of flood damaged areas, Manitoba Emergency Measures Organization staff will be available today until Friday, April 24 at the Selkirk Civic Centre, located at 200 Eaton Ave. in Selkirk and will provide information and applications for Disaster Financial Assistance from 11 a.m. to 7 p.m.
• A sandbag dike along PTH 3 at Melita is completed and the earthen ring dike has been raised to 1999 levels and will continue to be raised. The province also sent 10,000 sandbags into the area. Two homes and a business outside of the ring dike are being sandbagged today.
• Ring dikes in the Red River Valley are being carefully monitored, particularly as winds can cause wave action against the dikes.
• Road conditions are changing quickly. Check highway conditions before travelling at www.manitoba.ca or call 204-945-3704 or toll-free 1-877-627-6237.
