Manitoba Infrastructure and Transportation’s Hydrologic Forecast Centre advises the following:
Weather
An unstable low-pressure system will bring precipitation across southern Manitoba in the coming days.
The short-term forecast across much of Manitoba calls for rain showers, with the possibility of thunderstorms, developing Friday and continuing through the weekend.
Much of southern and northwest Manitoba and the Interlake are forecasted to receive 40 to
50 millimetres of rain by July 1.
Strong winds are expected to occur as part of this storm system. Wind warnings for lakes will be issued, if required, as the system develops.
Warnings and Advisories
Flood warnings continue for:
- Assiniboine River, from the Shellmouth Dam to Brandon, due to high flows;
- all points along the Winnipeg River System including Nutimik Lake in the Whiteshell Provincial Park;
- Lake St. Martin; and
- Dauphin Lake.
A flood watch is in place for:
- Lake Manitoba, and
- Lake Winnipeg.
High water advisories are in place for:
- all points along the Red River; and
- all points along the Saskatchewan River.
Emergency Response
States of local emergency continue in the rural municipalities of Arthur, Edward and Wallace.
The province will deploy flood mitigation equipment, such as Tiger Tubes, to areas that may be most affected by flooding.
Red River
The Red River is rising at all points in Manitoba. Levels similar to the spring flood of 2000 or summer flow of 2007 are expected between Emerson and Winnipeg.
The Red River at James Avenue in downtown Winnipeg is at 15.85 feet and is forecast to go up to 16.7 ft. in the next week. The river is forecast to stay above 14 ft. until mid-July.
There is the potential the Red River Floodway could be operated to reduce the risk of basement flooding damages within Winnipeg, depending on weather conditions.
Assiniboine River
The water level on the Shellmouth Reservoir has increased to 1,410.2 ft. The summer target level is 1,402.5 ft. and the crest of the spillway is at 1,408.5 ft.
As the water level has exceeded the spillway crest elevation, flows are occurring over the spillway. Spillway flows will increase or decrease as the reservoir level rises and falls.
Inflows to the reservoir are approximately 3,195 cubic feet per second (cfs) today.
Outflows from the reservoir are approximately 2,468 cfs. This includes 1,048 cfs of conduit flow and 1,415 cfs of spillway flow.
The inflow into the reservoir is forecast to peak at 4,800 cfs on July 6 and the outflow from the reservoir is forecast to rise up to 4,000 cfs on July 9.
The Portage Diversion is not in operation. Flows on the Assiniboine River upstream of the Portage Diversion are 9,344 cfs. The Portage Diversion will be operated if required to maintain 10,500 cfs along the lower Assiniboine River.
Lake Manitoba
The Fairford River Water Control Structure is being operated for maximum possible discharge. Outflows from Lake Manitoba are approximately 12,848 cfs.
Lake Manitoba is at approximately 813.5 ft. and is forecast to peak in early July at approximately 813.6 ft. with normal weather, or at approximately 813.8 ft. if wetter conditions persist.
Lake Manitoba is currently approximately 1.8 ft. below unregulated levels, the levels that would have occurred in the absence of all provincial water control infrastructure.
If the Fairford River Water Control Structure and associated channel improvements hadn’t been constructed, the estimated natural outflow from Lake Manitoba at the current lake level is approximately 4,300 cfs. The actual outflows have been higher than what the natural outflows would have been for all of 2014.
The Lake St. Martin water level gauge is registering 802.99 ft. The wind-eliminated lake level is forecast to peak just above 803 ft.
Operation of the Lake St. Martin Emergency Channel would increase outflow from Lake St. Martin, directly lowering levels, and allow the Fairford River Water Control Structure to remain at maximum discharge longer, thus allowing for higher outflows from Lake Manitoba later in the year.
The initial discharge through the channel will be approximately 5,600 cfs. The channel is expected to stay open until the spring of 2015, and will help bring the Lake St. Martin water level below 801 ft. by Oct. 31.
Lake Winnipeg
Lake Winnipeg is at 715 ft., and Manitoba Hydro forecasts that it will rise to approximately 716.1 ft. by late July. The water level regulation range for Lake Winnipeg is between 711 and 715 ft.
Manitoba Hydro is operating its structures at the outlet of Lake Winnipeg to allow for maximum possible outflow from the lake.
Dauphin Lake
Dauphin Lake is at 858.5 ft. and is forecast to peak at 858.7 to 858.9 ft. this summer. The flood stage on the lake is 858 ft. and the summer target level is 855 ft.
Nutimik Lake
Nutimik Lake, which is part of the Winnipeg River system, and downstream through Dorothy and Eleanor lakes, are experiencing high water levels and some overland flooding.
Water levels on Nutimik Lake are approaching record levels at 908.1 ft. Levels are expected to rise by four to six inches over the next week. Heavy local rainfalls may result in higher levels.
Some roads may be affected, limiting access to cottages in the area. In addition, there are reports of boathouses being flooded and some sandbagging is underway.
Sandbags are available for cottagers at strategic locations.
Cottagers can call the Seven Sisters District Office at 204-348-4004 for more information.
If possible, cottagers are asked to consider pumping out septic tanks that may be affected by overland flooding and refilling them with water to prevent them from overflowing or being damaged.
Boaters are encouraged to be cautious as high water levels can lead to more debris in area lakes and rivers.
Flood-affected Provincial Parks
Provincial park campgrounds with sites affected by flooding include Birch Point, Watchorn, St. Malo, Rainbow Beach, Camp Morton, Falcon Beach Campground and Falcon Lakeshore Campground.
All campers with reservations for affected sites have been contacted directly.
For up-to-date information on campgrounds and campsite reservations, visit: prspub.gov.mb.ca.
