The Manitoba government advises an updated forecast for the second crest on the Assiniboine River at the Portage Diversion calls for the second crest to be similar to the first. Flows of 52,000 to 53,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) are expected between July 14 and 15, assuming ideal weather.
Record-breaking flows of 38,700 cfs were measured in Brandon this morning. Peak flows are expected to last for a day or two before gradually declining.
Wind warnings are in place for today, tonight and tomorrow for the South Basin of Lake Winnipeg and the southern shorelines of Lake Manitoba, Lake Winnipegosis and Dauphin Lake.
Assiniboine River
The Assiniboine River has crested at St-Lazare, Miniota, Griswold and Brandon Valley. High water levels are expected to last for a day or two.
Inflows and the reservoir level of the Shellmouth Dam have crested and are declining. The reservoir outflows have crested and current outflows are 15,330 cfs.
The reservoir level crested at 1,416 feet above sea level and is currently at 1,415.7 ft.
Flows on the Souris River at Wawanesa were measured at approximately 13,000 cfs this morning.
Brandon
Water levels on the Assiniboine River in Brandon crested at 9 a.m. at 1,183.07 ft. and
38,870 cfs this morning at First Street, 0.07 ft. higher than forecast.
Existing flood protection in Brandon is adequate for the flows of the second crest. Peak flows are expected to last for a day or two before gradually declining.
Portage Diversion
This morning, flows on the Assiniboine River at the Portage Diversion were at 47,600 cfs. Flows on the Portage Diversion are approximately 29,600 cfs and flow on the Assiniboine River immediately downstream of the diversion is 18,000 cfs.
For the next crest forecast at 52,000 to 53,000 cfs, it is expected the diversion will handle up to 35,000 cfs and 18,000 cfs will be going down the Assiniboine River between Portage la Prairie and Headingley.
This increased forecast is a result of the high flows on the Qu’Appelle River earlier this week and high flows on the Souris River that declined slower than expected.
Peak flows are expected to last for a day or two before gradually declining.
The increased forecast of 4,000 cfs of the second peak is expected to add less than 0.1 inches of water to the overall levels on Lake Manitoba.
The Hoop and Holler Bend remains ready to use for a controlled breach if an urgent situation arises.
Work undertaken in the past week has significantly strengthened the Portage Diversion and the Assiniboine River dikes. The diversion and the dikes are in good condition and are expected to manage these forecast flows.
All flood protection remains in place and will be closely monitored. The Canadian Armed Forces Aurora plane will continue to assist with monitoring dike and diversion conditions.
Manitoba Lakes
Forecasts are for severe northwest wind with gusts between 50 and 70 km/hr over the weekend. This will increase water levels and cause considerable wave action in the South Basin of Lake Winnipeg and the southern shorelines of Lake Manitoba, Lake Winnipegosis and Dauphin Lake.
The Lake Manitoba forecast is being reviewed.
Planning meetings are underway with communities along Lake Manitoba this weekend to plan for forecast lake levels over the next several weeks. So far, 2,000 super sandbags have been sent into the area.
Lake St. Martin
The emergency channel is lowering water levels on Lake St. Martin and Lake Pineumuta will benefit all First Nations communities around the lakes. Lake Manitoba will benefit from the operation of the channel as outflows will not have to be reduced through the winter.
Water levels on Lake St. Martin are down by 0.3 ft. since the partial opening of the channel, protecting communities from flooding.
The province continues to work with communities to resolve issues around fisheries, the cleanup of debris and environmental issues.
Parkland and Northern Manitoba
The water level gauge on Dauphin Lake is reporting a water level of 859.8 ft. and the lake appears to be near crest.
The Carrot River near The Pas is at 856.6 ft. today and is forecast to peak at 856.8 ft.
The Saskatchewan River is also at or near crest and remains within bank.
Flood-fighting Work
As of this morning, approximately 741 people are evacuated from their homes and communities due to flooding in 2014 including 160 evacuees related to spring flooding.
Aboriginal Affairs and Northern Development Canada (AANDC) reports that as of yesterday at noon, this number includes approximately 517 people evacuated from Manitoba First Nations due to flooding in June and July. Of these, 327 evacuees have registered with the Manitoba Association of Native Fire Fighters and are receiving temporary hotel accommodations, while the others are staying with friends and family in their communities.
AANDC reports that First Nations are responsible for emergency preparedness and leading emergency response on reserve. AANDC is in regular contact with First Nation communities, along with federal and provincial emergency management partners, to ensure community-level response activities are being supported.
The province is working directly with municipalities to address flooding issues. As of this morning, 56 municipalities and communities have declared a state of local emergency.
Damage Estimates and Recovery Information
The Manitoba government advises a preliminary estimate of repair costs for roads and bridges in western Manitoba is in excess of $200 million.
This does not include agricultural losses. Total costs for the summer flood will continue to be assessed.
Damage estimates indicate approximately 30 bridges or culverts in southwestern Manitoba will need to be replaced, with another 50 needing repairs.
Drivers in southwestern Manitoba are reminded to assume bridges may be damaged on all roads. Reduce speed and restrict weight to 10 tonnes only. Damage inspections are underway.
This does not include agricultural losses. Total costs for the summer flood will continue to be assessed.
A disaster financial assistance program is now in place in response to this year’s flood.
Application forms and further details about the program are available online at www.manitobaemo.ca or by contacting the Manitoba Emergency Measures Organization at 204 945 3050 in Winnipeg or 1-888-267-8298 (toll-free). Applications are also available at most municipal offices.
Mobile recovery offices have visited several communities in the past week and will continue to be set up in the southwest area of Manitoba. Staff are available to answer questions and take applications for disaster financial assistance. In addition, the Canadian Red Cross and the Salvation Army will also have representatives on site.
- Deloraine – The office will be located at the community hall at 111 Caver St. N on Tuesday, July 15 from noon to 6 p.m.
- Brandon – The office will be located on the east side of the Keystone Centre grounds on Wednesday, July 16 and Thursday, July 17 from 10 a.m. to 6 p.m.
- Pierson – The office will be located in front of the Rural Municipality of Edward office at 58 Railway Ave. on Friday July 18 from 11 a.m. to 6 p.m.
