The Hydrologic Forecast Centre has released a 2014 Fall Conditions Report on soil moisture levels at freeze-up. This announcement was made by Infrastructure and Transportation Minister Steve Ashton.
“It’s too early to produce a detailed long-term flood forecast as conditions could change significantly during the coming months, but the Hydrologic Forecast Centre is gathering information now that will form the flood forecasts in the first few months of 2015,” said Minister Ashton. “At this time, rivers and lakes are higher than average so we want to ensure Manitobans and municipal officials are aware of what we are dealing with, even at this early stage with a full winter to come.”
The 2014 Fall Conditions Report explains that flood forecasters look at six primary factors when assessing long-term prospects for potential floods or droughts in the spring and summer. One of the factors is the amount of moisture in the soil before freeze-up, accumulated over the summer and fall.
The report also notes:
- almost all of the major river basins in Manitoba – the Assiniboine, Red, Saskatchewan, Souris and Qu’Appelle rivers – have received precipitation normal to well above normal between April 1 and Oct. 31;
- record rainfall has been observed on the Assiniboine and the Qu’Appelle river watersheds in Saskatchewan during this period, which led to the 2014 flood;
- base flow and level conditions indicate most major rivers and lakes are above the normal flow or level for this time of the year; and
- November and December precipitation to date is normal to well-below normal in most watersheds across the province.
Due to above-normal soil moisture conditions and record-high base flow conditions, the Assiniboine, Qu’Appelle and Souris rivers will be closely monitored. Even with normal winter precipitation, these watersheds could experience major flooding if a fast melt rate or heavy rainfall were to occur in early spring, the minister noted. A single major weather storm, similar to the one observed in the summer of 2014, could bring major flooding on Manitoba basins, he added.
As spring approaches, the Manitoba government will assess the flood potential and prepare as required. This will include working with municipal emergency management teams to review existing emergency response plans and sharing information through conference calls and flood-preparedness meetings in Morris, Brandon and Selkirk, the minister said.
The first flood outlook is expected to be available early in the new year. The 2014 Fall Conditions Report is available at www.gov.mb.ca/flooding.
