Ian Wishart is the president of Keystone Agricultural Producers and he says that a return to more stable prices would benefit everyone. The current mad swings allow for profits but hurt more people than they benefit.
The president of KAP sees another difficult year ahead for the red meat sector. Ian Wishart sees that few things have changed in the sector that faced, what can politely be called, challenging times in 2008.
The one thing that has changed is the certainty that the U.S. will move ahead with its Country Of Origin Labeling regulations.
“A year ago we were not sure, and we thought there might be some loopholes,” says Wishart. “That is not the case and we know that the process is moving ahead. There is the possibility of a challenge under the WTO agreement but until a decision there or a near decision, nothing will happen and that could take two years.” He says that even an impending decision might bring about some movement at the bargaining table but that is not likely under current conditions.
Looking back to the beginning of 2008 Wishart says the high feed costs and poor prices made for a gloomy outlook in the red meat industry.
“Meanwhile in the grain and oilseed sector we began the year with some of the best prospects in recent memory,” says Wishart, “We had a good spring and there was a lot of optimism but that changed with the drop in commodity prices, and the run up in inputs. The input costs did not track grain prices at all.”
He says other factors than the demand for food were responsible for the near record grain prices and he world prefer to see a steady margin for grain producers over the valleys and peaks the market experienced this year.
“There were other factors like financial funds in the market place,” he says. “While they did provide opportunities for people to make money, there were more people who lost money. A stable market would be better for producers.”
Looking to 2009, Wishart is confident the Canadian dollar will stay near its current mark of $0.82 US.
“Although if the demand for grain and oil cuts loose, the list of countries that export those two things is very short and our dollar could be in demand again,” he says.
While markets are always a prime concern he sees an increase in food safety issues on the horizon.
“The things that have happened in China and the listerosis incident here mean that there will be a great concern for food safety and that will be some opportunities for Canadian farmers but along with it will come more paper work,” says Wishart.
He says farmers can expect to face a learning curve with new labor situations regard farm labor. “But on the positive side with softened markets in oil there might be more people willing to work on farms after a few years of tight labor situations, so there is something positive there.”
Wishart wonders if input companies will realize that farmers don’t have the returns to purchase inputs at these levels.
“If prices stay as they are (for commodities and inputs) guys are telling me they will go to the field this spring without a lot of fertilizer. The margins aren’t there and that is something that needs to reach the board rooms of input companies.”
His call is for more of the same as the industry faced in the last year. “But there will be opportunities for those positioned correctly.”
