Manitoba Water Stewardship has updated its flood forecast for the Red River and is now projecting crest levels near the lower end of the previous forecast range and even lower from St. Adolphe to the floodway inlet. The lower crest forecasts are a result of the continued dry weather in recent weeks.
Unsettled weather with occasional showers is expected today through the weekend, especially in the U.S. portion of the Red River. However, total rainfall amounts will likely be less than 0.6 inches (15 millimetres) and should have little effect on the flood situation.
Flood Conditions
On Saturday a significant ice jam at the south of end of the city caused a rapid rise in river levels posing an immediate threat to approximately seven homes. An Amphibex icebreaker was deployed to successfully break the ice jam. Ice jams are unpredictable and can cause rapid rises and falls in river levels each year.
The Red River Floodway was operated for the first time this spring on Sunday morning once ice was clear of Winnipeg. This was done to prevent flooding in the city while maintaining natural levels south of the floodway inlet in accordance with normal operating procedures.
On Monday morning, a localized ice jam on the Red River just north of its confluence with Netley Creek caused a rapid and unpredictable rise in river levels in the Petersfield and Breezy Point areas. Early in the afternoon, the ice moved to Netley Marsh allowing Red River flows to get by the ice jam and flow into the marsh. As a result, river levels at Petersfield and in the Breezy Point area began falling at about 3 p.m. yesterday. By this morning, water levels in this area had declined by about 0.6 metres (two feet) from yesterday’s crest. PR 320 is still flooded this morning from Breezy Point to the ‘end of main.’ Flooding has occurred in the area of the former Breezy Point subdivision nine times in the last 15 years.
A few garages and yards in the Petersfield area were flooded due to yesterday’s ice jam near Breezy Point. Peak water levels are not yet well known, but it appears that levels came close to crests observed last spring. Some roads in the Petersfield area were overtopped. As a precaution, flood tubes were used to raise dikes and protect nearby homes.
The Red River is now clear of ice at all points.
Flood Forecast
Levels of the Red River continue to rise from Emerson to the floodway inlet, but daily rises have diminished to less than 15 centimetres (six inches) at most locations and will continue to decrease until the crest is reached.
The Red River crest is expected at Emerson on April 1, Morris on April 5 and St. Adolphe on April 7. The crest from Morris to the floodway inlet will be very flat, which means that river levels will change very little for about five days near the time of the crest.
Crests will be near the bottom of the forecast range which had been provided for the past week. This is due to continued dry weather, which will result in a somewhat lower crest coming from the United States, and due to rapidly declining flows on Manitoba tributaries.
The river level in downtown Winnipeg changed little since yesterday and stood at 5.35 m (17.54 ft.) this morning. Sunday’s crest of 5.6 m (18.35 ft.) caused by an ice jam in St. Norbert will not be exceeded this spring unless heavy rain develops. The Red River level in downtown Winnipeg will be in the 5.2 to 5.5 m (17 to 18 ft.) range until about April 14 based on normal weather conditions and anticipated floodway operations.
Assiniboine, Souris and Pembina Rivers
Assiniboine River levels have changed little in recent days. Operation of the Portage Diversion is not expected due to low Assiniboine River flows. The Shellmouth Reservoir water level is at 424.76 m (1393.57 ft.). Rainfall is needed in the area to raise the reservoir to the desired summer level. There has been virtually no precipitation in the region in February and March.
Levels of the Souris and Pembina rivers have changed little during the past few days and remain well below average for this time of year. Minor flooding of hay fields along the Souris River near Coulter will continue for a few more weeks.
Flood-related Activity
Manitoba Infrastructure and Transportation (MIT) is assessing PTH 75 on an ongoing basis and watching water levels and forecasts carefully. If a closure is required because of water levels in the Morris area, it is now expected to last less than a week.
As a result of the updated forecast, PR 200 is expected to remain open throughout the spring.
The ring dike at Emerson is partially closed in two locations. There may be additional partial closures of ring dikes around the communities of St. Jean Baptiste, Morris and St. Adolphe. These ring dikes are being assessed on a daily basis.
The Flood Liaison Office is open at 204-945-2121 and will provide flood-level information elevations related to properties in the Red River Valley.
Inquiries regarding highways may be made at 1-877-MBROADS (1-877-627-6237) or the MIT website at www.gov.mb.ca/mit/roadinfo.
