The effect of U.S. ethanol policy on global commodity markets and food prices will be the focus of a keynote speech on February 28 at GrainWorld 2011, Canada’s leading annual grain-industry conference.
Bill Lapp, president of Omaha-based Advanced Economic Solutions, will deliver the luncheon address, “Driving on an Empty Stomach.” He will explore how American ethanol production has driven recent global price spikes for grains and oilseeds and how this has influenced food inflation around the world.
“Ethanol has enjoyed significant government support in the U.S.” Lapp says. “While there has been push-back from some significant special-interest groups – including food manufacturers, livestock producers and even environmental groups – the political support behind ethanol is strong. At some point, this will need to be weighed against the dramatic increase in food costs caused by rising grain prices and ethanol.”
A host of conference presenters will examine various aspects of world commodity markets that affect Canadian exports and world food supply, the focus of intense media attention due to dramatic price increases and the connection to unrest sweeping North Africa and the Middle East. The theme of the conference, “Flight to commodities: Smooth ride or turbulence ahead?”, refers to heightened recent activity and volatility in agricultural commodity markets – driven by factors including strong demand, extreme global weather, an influx of capital and the global economic crisis.
Scotiabank’s Carlos Gomes examines the Canadian and global economy; Geoff Stone of Export Development Canada shares insights on the overall commodity market; while Royal Bank economist Paul Ferley provides an outlook for Asia-Pacific. Key market outlooks will be delivered for various agricultural export commodities – including the first CWB wheat and barley outlooks for the 2011 western Canadian crop. Tuesday morning’s panel draws the focus to the developing world, featuring participants from the U.S., Uruguay and Turkey.
GrainWorld brings the grains, oilseeds and livestock industries together with farmers, academics and government policymakers. This year’s conference takes place February 27 to March 1 at the Fairmont Winnipeg.
“GrainWorld is popular because we have a very wide range of attendees from both government and industry, as well as quite a few farmers, who attend the conference to get their updates on what’s going to happening in the coming year,” says conference chair Bruce Burnett, who is director of weather and market analysis at the CWB.
“I think they’re going to be focusing in on the price volatility that we’ve seen and how long these higher prices can stay with us. At the 2008 conference, we were looking at prices up at levels even higher than we currently have, and the same question came up. So people are going to be taking a very close look at the parallels between the two years and trying to figure out exactly what’s going to happen.”
GrainWorld registration and program information is available online at www.cwb.ca/grainworld. For more information or to register, call Caroline Wiley, conference coordinator, at (204) 983-4236.
