Flood warnings have been issued for the Souris River from the U.S.-Canada border and downstream, and for the Qu`Appelle River in the St-Lazare area.
Flood watches have been issued for the Assiniboine River downstream of the Shellmouth bridge to Portage la Prairie; Pipestone Creek, all reaches; Oak Lake and Plum Lakes; Plum Creek to the Souris River (including the town of Souris); the Saskatchewan River near Ralls Island; and the Carrot River, all reaches in Manitoba.
The U.S. National Weather Service has issued a revised forecast for the Red River at Pembina. Water levels on many tributaries in the Red River basin are now declining and weather conditions in the Red River Valley have been favourable. The forecast peak for the Red River in Manitoba will be adjusted to near 2009 levels to reflect these more favourable conditions. It is anticipated the revised forecast will be completed and posted online later today.
Due to a revised forecast from the U.S. for the Red River at Pembina, Manitoba flood forecasters are currently revising levels for the Red River in Manitoba. Based on the new numbers from the U.S. and declining flows on tributaries in Manitoba, levels on the Red River in Manitoba are now expected be around or slightly below 2009 levels. New numbers for the Red River will be posted on the government’s website later this afternoon or early this evening.
Pipestone Creek is contributing high flows to Oak Lake and all downstream waterways. Peak flows on the Souris River and Plum Creek are forecast to be close to coinciding this year, similar to 1976. Landowners in this area are advised to protect to 1976 water levels.
Flood Response
In Souris, three homes are being sandbagged along Plum Creek due to rising waters. The province is providing large flood-barrier tubes to protect additional areas that may be affected by rising waters along the creek. Sandbags delivered from Brandon, Virden and the province are also being used to support temporary flood protection.
Five cottages at Oak Lake have been protected by sandbag dikes. Pipestone Creek is contributing high flows to Oak Lake.
An assessment of flood protection by municipal officials at Wawanesa shows it is within projected flood levels for the Souris River.
Ice jams on the Saskatchewan River approximately seven miles downstream of The Pas and further downstream near Bucks Island have created high water conditions in the vicinity of The Pas and are causing a backwater effect on the Carrot River. Sandbagging continues around Bracken Dam to protect approximately 30 homes. In addition, provincial and municipal crews are working to protect the area around Ralls Island with an earthen dike and large flood-barrier tubes. It is anticipated that ice will move out of the area within the next day, dropping water levels on both the Saskatchewan and Carrot rivers. Two Amphibex machines have been working on both rivers and will continue to assist where conditions allow. Water levels related to ice jams are virtually impossible to predict.
Dikes have been enhanced to 1976 levels along the Assiniboine River on vulnerable properties in Headingley, Cartier and St. Francis Xavier.
Dike repairs continue along the Assiniboine River near Baie St. Paul.
There are approximately 958 Manitobans evacuated on a precautionary basis, largely due to loss of safe road access in and out of their homes. Evacuations have occurred from the Peguis First Nation and from the Red River Valley including the RMs of Montcalm, Morris and Ritchot.
There are approximately 76 provincial roads affected by flooding, with 49 of those closed. A total of 640 municipal roads are closed by flooding.
Red River
The Red River at Emerson is near crest and will maintain sustained high flows for the next three to four days. The water level at Emerson is 790.19 feet with flows of 78,500 cubic feet per second (cfs) today.
The Red River is forecast to crest in St. Adolph between May 1 and 4. The water level at St. Adolph is 765.42 ft. today, an increase of 0.45 ft. since yesterday.
Water levels just south of the floodway inlet are 762.17 ft. with flows of 69,000 cfs. Flows in the floodway are approximately 28,000 cfs. Flows above the floodway inlet will steadily increase until the forecast peak flows occur between May 2 and 5.
Water levels at James Avenue in Winnipeg have increased 0.21 ft. since yesterday to 18.3 ft. Flows at James Avenue this morning are approximately 51,500 cfs. Flows on the Assiniboine River will be increasing in the upcoming days.
Water levels on the Red River north of Winnipeg to the outlet at Lake Winnipeg increased between 0.21 and 0.58 ft. since yesterday.
Assiniboine River
The Qu’Appelle River is cresting in the St-Lazare area.
Water levels on the Shellmouth Reservoir have increased by 1.84 ft. since yesterday to 1402.23 ft. The reservoir is 6.4 ft. from spillway elevation with potential for spill flows in four to five days. Inflow into the Shellmouth Reservoir is 16,250 cfs. Outflows will be maintained at 4,200 cfs today and assessed as the Assiniboine River reaches crest elevation.
Flows in the Portage Diversion channel this morning are at 21,900 cfs and flows on the Assiniboine River downstream of the diversion are approximately 9,800 cfs. Inflow upstream of Portage la Prairie is 31,700 cfs.
It is anticipated that water levels will continue to increase at Portage la Prairie until sometime between April 29 and May 3.
Souris River
The water level on Souris River at Melita will remain near crest for the next one to two days.
The upper range of the forecast peak for the Souris River at the town of Souris is 1,362.5 ft. between April 24 and 29, and 1,160.6 ft. at Wawanesa between April 26 and May 1. Tributary flows from Pipestone Creek have contributed to the extended period of high flows and higher water elevations at these communities. Since yesterday, water levels on the Souris River have increased by 0.43 ft. at Souris and 0.53 ft. at Wawanesa.
Pipestone Creek is contributing high flows to Oak Lake. Oak Lake is storing a significant amount of inflowing water, however, water is now cresting at Oak Lake resulting in overtopping of the dike in two isolated locations into downstream waterways. No properties were affected. Water levels on Plum Creek are forecast to increase and maintain sustained high flows until the end of April.
Peak flows on the Souris River and Plum Creek are forecast to be near coincident this year, similar to 1976. Land owners in this area are advised to protect to 1976 water levels.
Northern Rivers and Lakes
Ice jams and ice movement on the Saskatchewan River in the vicinity of The Pas have created high water conditions and are causing a backwater effect on the Carrot River. Ice conditions are dynamic and it is anticipated that ice will move out of the area within the next day, dropping water levels on both the Saskatchewan River and the downstream reach of Carrot River. Amphibex machines have been staged to clear ice where access and conditions allow.
The open water forecast for the Carrot River predicts a peak similar to 2007 water levels. The forecasted open water peak on the Carrot River at the Bracken Dam will occur between April 24 and 27. It is anticipated that current levels from ice jams will be higher than peak open water levels.
The forecast for the Saskatchewan River at Ralls Island predicts peak water levels to occur between April 24 and 27. The upper range of the forecast peak is 1.2 ft. above flood stage elevation of 855 ft. at Ralls Island.
Water levels on the Saskatchewan at Ralls Island have increased 1.15 ft since yesterday. Water levels on Carrot Rivers at the Bracken Dam have increased 0.94 ft. since yesterday.
Other Major Waterways
Due to a warming trend, snowpack-affected streams such as Swan, Turtle, Shell, Pine, Garland, Ochre, Vermillion and Valley rivers have just started run-off in upper watershed regions. The significant amount of snowpack remaining in high elevations will result in high run-off flows with second crests near the end of next week. It is anticipated that the second crest will be lower than the first on most of these streams.
The Turtle River has increased 0.11 ft. since yesterday.
Lake Manitoba water levels have risen to 813.45 ft. Outflows from Lake Manitoba are 11,720 cfs today. Lake Winnipeg water levels at Gimli have risen to 715.13 ft.
Today’s risk of shoreline ice pileups on major lakes in Manitoba is low.
For more information, go to www.manitoba.ca/flooding. The most up-to-date highway information is at www.gov.mb.ca/mit/roadinfo or 1-877-MBRoads (1-877-627-6237) and on Twitter by following @MBGov.
