Flood warnings have been issued for the Souris River from the U.S.-Canada border and downstream. The warnings include the Qu`Appelle River in the St-Lazare area, the Saskatchewan River near Ralls Island, the Carrot River (all reaches in Manitoba), the Assiniboine River downstream of Shellmouth Bridge to Portage la Prairie, Pipestone Creek (all reaches), Oak Lake and Plum Lakes and Plum Creek to the Souris River (including the town of Souris).
The forecast for the Red River in Manitoba has been revised. The upper range of the forecast peak will be slightly lower than 2009 water levels for many points, however, water levels will be similar or slightly above 2009 water levels at Emerson, Letellier, Ste. Agathe and St. Adolphe. The upper range of the forecast assumes unfavourable weather conditions.
Water levels at James Avenue in Winnipeg have increased 0.28 feet since yesterday to 18.58 ft. Flows at James Avenue this morning were approximately 52,500 cubic feet per second (cfs). Flows on the Assiniboine River will be increasing in the upcoming days.
Water levels on the Assiniboine River at Brandon are 1,176.33 ft., up 0.15 ft. since yesterday. Peak flows are forecast for the Brandon area around May 1 with favourable weather conditions. Sustained high flows are forecast for the Brandon area, due in part to the flows from the upper watershed and the Qu’appelle River.
Peak flows on the Souris River and Plum Creek are forecast to be close to coinciding this year, similar to 1976. Land owners in this area are advised to protect to 1976 water levels.
Flood Response
Ice jams and ice movement on the Saskatchewan River in the vicinity of The Pas have created high water conditions and are causing a backwater effect on the Carrot River. Ice has started to move on the Saskatchewan River. Equipment will be working along the Carrot River near the Halliday Bridge today to break up heavy ice in that location and an Amphibex will clear ice on the downstream reach of the Carrot River today. Provincial and municipal crews are continuing to reinforce primary and secondary dikes in the area.
Repairs to the Assiniboine dikes near the Baie St. Paul Bridge are expected to be largely completed tomorrow and able to accommodate an increase in flows along the Assiniboine River.
There have been 1,100 evacuations, primarily as a result of losing safe road access to homes. Approximately 170 people have been evacuated from the Roseau River First Nation as a precautionary measure.
There are currently 30 states of local emergency declared by municipalities.
There are 77 provincial roads affected by flood waters, 52 of which are closed. Approximately 650 municipal roads are closed.
Red River
The Red River at Emerson is near crest. The water level at Emerson is 790.19 ft. with flows of 81,500 cfs today.
The Red River is forecast to crest in Ste. Agathe between April 28 and May 1. The water level at Ste. Agathe is 770.05 ft. today, an increase of 0.41 ft. since yesterday.
Water levels just upstream of the floodway inlet are 762.40 ft., with flows of 71,000 cfs. Flows in the floodway are approximately 29,000 cfs. Flows above the floodway inlet will steadily increase and remain below natural until the forecast peak flows occur between April 30 and May 3.
Assiniboine River
A flood warning has been issued for the Assiniboine River from the Shellmouth Bridge to Portage la Prairie.
The flood warning for the Qu`Appelle River in St-Lazare area remains in effect. The Qu’Appelle River at Welby is maintaining sustained high flows, declining only 0.07 ft. since yesterday.
Water levels on the Shellmouth Reservoir have increased by 1.64 ft. since yesterday to 1,403.87 ft. The reservoir is approximately five ft. from spillway elevation, with potential for flows over the spillway in four to five days. Inflow into the Shellmouth Reservoir is 15,550 cfs. Outflows will be maintained at 4,300 cfs today and assessed as the Assiniboine River reaches crest elevation.
Flows in the Portage Diversion channel this morning are near channel capacity at 23,300 cfs. Flows on the Assiniboine River downstream of the diversion are approximately 10,200 cfs. Inflow upstream of Portage la Prairie is 33,500 cfs.
It is anticipated that inflows will continue to increase at Portage until between April 29 and May 3. During the crest of the Assiniboine River, inflows into the Portage Diversion channel will be kept at maximum capacity and then will slowly decline to lower flows once the crest period has passed.
Souris River
Tributary flows from Pipestone Creek have added to the extended period of high flows and higher water elevations along the Plum Creek and in the town of Souris. Since yesterday, water levels on the Souris River decreased by 0.04 ft. in the town of Souris and have increased 0.4 ft. at Wawanesa.
Pipestone Creek is contributing high flows to Oak Lake. Oak and Plum Lakes are storing a significant amount of inflowing water. Water levels on Plum Creek are forecast to increase and maintain sustained high flows until the end of April.
Peak flows on the Souris River and Plum Creek are forecast to be close to coinciding this year, similar to 1976. Land owners in this area are advised to protect to 1976 water levels.
A flood warning has been issued for all reaches of Pipestone Creek and downstream into the Oak and Plum lakes system, and on Plum Creek to the Souris River including the town of Souris.
Northern Rivers and Lakes
As of this morning, the flow on the Saskatchewan River decreased to 65,600 cfs from a peak of 69,000 cfs yesterday.
The open-water forecast for the Carrot River predicts a peak similar to 2007 water levels. Water levels at the Bracken Dam at the confluence of the Birch and Carrot rivers reached an ice-induced crest of 857.17 ft. yesterday. Water levels at the Bracken Dam are 858.8 ft today, a decrease of 0.37 ft.
The Saskatchewan River at Ralls Island reached and ice-induced peak yesterday of 856.23 ft. and decreased to 855.73 ft. today.
Water levels on the Saskatchewan River at Ralls Island have decreased 0.24 ft. since yesterday. Water levels on the Carrot River at the Bracken Dam have decreased 0.37 ft. since yesterday.
A flood warning has been issued for the Saskatchewan River near Ralls Island.
A flood warning has been issued for the Carrot River and all reaches within Manitoba.
Other Major Waterways
Due to the warming trend, snowpack-affected streams such as Swan, Turtle, Shell, Pine, Garland, Ochre, Vermillion and Valley rivers have just started run-off in the upper watershed regions. The significant amount of snowpack remaining in high elevations will result in high run-off flows, with second crests near the end of next week. It is anticipated that the second crest will be lower than the first in these streams.
Smaller tributaries of the snowpack-affected streams are at or near crest throughout much of western Manitoba.
Lake Manitoba water levels have risen to 813.5 ft. Outflows from Lake Manitoba are 11,700 cfs today. Lake Winnipeg water levels at Gimli have risen to 715.22 ft.
Today’s risk of ice pileup on the shorelines of major lakes in Manitoba is low.
For more information, see www.manitoba.ca/flooding. The most up-to-date highway information is at www.gov.mb.ca/mit/roadinfo or 1-877-MBRoads (1-877-627-6237) and on Twitter by following @MBGov.
