The Assiniboine River is running at 1½ times or more than the volume compared with the 1976 flood. Flows from upstream tributaries in Manitoba and Saskatchewan, such as the Qu’Appelle and the Souris rivers, have contributed to this increase in volume. It is expected the high flows will be sustained for several weeks. These increased flows are being further assessed today.
Preliminary estimates show the flood on the Assiniboine River at Portage la Prairie is a one-in-70-year flood. Along the Red River, south of the city, it is estimated to be a one-in-25 to 30-year event.
PTH 75 south is now closed south of Morris to St. Jean Baptiste due to high flood waters. Detours are signed and marked. Drivers are advised to respect all road closures and be cautious driving in any areas of the flood plain. Driving water-covered roads can be hazardous. The latest detour is:
• south on PTH 3 from PTH 100 to Carman.
• south from Carman to the junction of PTH 14.
• east on PTH 14 to PTH 75.
Weather forecasts project cooler temperatures, strong winds in some areas and rain across most of southern and central Manitoba.
There are 1,981 Manitobans evacuated, mostly due to a loss of safe road access. The remaining 20 evacuees from Sandy Bay First Nation returned home yesterday.
There are 81 provincial roads affected by flood waters, with 50 closed or limited to local access only. Approximately 600 municipal roads are closed.
Information about the federal election on Monday, May 2, for those affected by the flood is available from Elections Canada at 1-800-463-6868 or www.elections.ca/home.aspx.
Flood Forecast
Flood warnings have been issued for the Souris River from Melita and all downstream reaches; the Qu’Appelle River in St-Lazare area; the Assiniboine River downstream of Shellmouth Bridge to Portage la Prairie; the Pipestone Creek, all reaches; Oak Lake and Plum Lakes; and Plum Creek to the Souris River (including the town of Souris).
Flood watches have been issued for the Saskatchewan River near Ralls Island and the Carrot River, all reaches, in Manitoba.
A high water advisory is in place for the Assiniboine River downstream of Portage la Prairie.
The upper range of the forecast peak for the Red River is below 2009 levels for all points on the river.
The Red River will be cresting in St. Jean Baptiste today and is near crest in Ste. Agathe and Morris today. It is anticipated the Red River will crest in Winnipeg on or about April 30. Sustained high flows are expected for a prolonged period along all reaches of the river.
Water levels on the Shellmouth Reservoir have increased by 1.25 feet since yesterday to
1,409.09 ft. and the spillway has been overtopped. Inflow into the Shellmouth Reservoir has increased to approximately 15,000 cubic feet per second (cfs). Outflows are the maximum possible with current reservoir levels. Outflows through the dam will be controlled to reduce peak outflows as much as possible to ensure communities downstream are not negatively impacted.
The Assiniboine River near Miniota reached record high water levels yesterday at 1,245.44 ft., 0.25 ft. above the 1976 record peak. Record water levels in Miniota do not necessarily mean record water levels will be reached at downstream locations.
Flows in the Portage Diversion channel this morning were 22,600 cfs. Flows on the Assiniboine River downstream of the diversion are approximately 13,600 cfs and will increase to 14,000 cfs today. The Assiniboine River flows downstream of the diversion will increase to 15,000 cfs in the next few days. Inflow upstream of Portage la Prairie is 36,200 cfs.
Red River
Water levels just upstream of the floodway inlet are 763.48 ft., with flows of 73,600 cfs. Flows in the floodway are approximately 33,300 cfs. Flows above the floodway inlet will steadily increase until the peak occurs on or about April 30.
Water levels at James Avenue in Winnipeg have increased 0.21 ft. since yesterday to 18.8 ft. Flows at James Avenue this morning were approximately 53,400 cfs. Flows on the Assiniboine River will be increasing in the upcoming days.
Water levels on the Red River at the Selkirk town bridge have increased 0.2 ft. since yesterday to 723.45 ft.
Assiniboine River
The Shellmouth Reservoir is forecast to receive near-record volumes of water from upstream waterways this spring and will be contributing high flows to the Assiniboine River, prolonging the crest period for as long as three to four weeks.
Water levels on the Assiniboine River at the First Street Bridge in Brandon are 1,177.77 ft., increasing 0.81 ft. since yesterday. Water levels at Brandon will continue to increase as the crest approaches about May 2.
Souris River
The Souris River at Wawanesa crested and declined 0.23 ft. since yesterday.
Other Major Waterways
Water levels on the Saskatchewan and Carrot rivers in the vicinity of The Pas decreased since yesterday.
Lake Manitoba water levels have risen to 813.7 ft., increasing 0.06 ft. since yesterday. Outflows from Lake Manitoba are 12,200 cfs today. The Fairford Dam, at the outlet of Lake Manitoba, is operating at full capacity.
Water levels on Lake Winnipeg at Gimli are 715.32 ft., with no change since yesterday.
Today’s risk of ice pileup on the shorelines of major lakes in Manitoba is low. Ice is still intact on the major lakes but is starting to deteriorate.
For more information, see www.manitoba.ca/flooding. The most up-to-date highway information is at www.gov.mb.ca/mit/roadinfo or 1-877-MBRoads (1-877-627-6237) and on Twitter by following @MBGov.
