The Manitoba government has declared a provincial state of emergency to deal with the imminent threat of flooding along the Assiniboine River in the city of Portage la Prairie and the RMs of Portage la Prairie, Woodlands, Rosser, St. Francois Xavier, Headingley, Cartier, Macdonald and Grey.
Residents in the RMs of Cartier, St. François Xavier and Headingley are raising dikes by an additional two feet to accommodate high flows on the Assiniboine River caused by rain.
Assiniboine River Flood Conditions
An unstable weather system is expected to bring between 20 to 40 millimetres of rainfall across most basins in southern Manitoba between today and Wednesday. The Souris River Basin is forecast to receive up to 50 mm. Localized areas in western Manitoba may see as much as
70 mm of rain.
Flows in the Portage Diversion channel this morning are at 24,500 cfs. Inflow upstream of Portage la Prairie is 42,500 cfs. Flows on the Assiniboine River at the diversion are 18,000 cfs this morning.
Flows on the Assiniboine River will continue to increase with recent and forecast rain.
Flows on the Assiniboine River at Brandon reached 38,000 cfs late yesterday afternoon and, with the forecast rain, will reach 41,000 cfs by May 11.
Flows on the Assiniboine River at the Portage reservoir will gradually increase to a forecast 52,000 on or around May 11 and may reach 56,000 cfs by May 15.
Assiniboine River Flood Fighting
At the request of the Manitoba government, Canadian Forces from Joint Task Force West, under Canada Command, are arriving to assist the government in its operation to manage flood-fighting efforts along the Assiniboine River.
Working within Manitoba’s emergency management system, Canadian Forces will provide planning and co-ordination assistance as well as provide support to preserve essential infrastructure, reinforce existing dikes and monitor the sandbag dikes.
Approximately 100 personnel have already arrived in Portage la Prairie, while another 600 Canadian Forces personnel, including two reserve force domestic response companies, are being deployed in phases over the next several days. The Forces response is being formed primarily from Manitoba units with additional support from Alberta and Saskatchewan.
Residents in the municipalities of Cartier, St. Francois Xavier and Headingley are advised to raise their dikes two feet in the next three days and will have military assistance in doing so.
Residents, with the support of over 300 volunteers in the area, successfully raised the dikes two ft. over the weekend. An additional two feet will now be required.
Two sandbag machines at Kapyong Barracks in Winnipeg will begin working to provide additional filled sandbags for Assiniboine River dikes.
Flood Forecast
Water levels on the Shellmouth Reservoir are 1,414.42 ft. Inflow into the Shellmouth Reservoir is approximately 12,000 cfs. The Shellmouth Dam will be operated to maintain outflows at 12,000 cfs today.
St-Lazare’s water levels have decreased 0.07 ft. since yesterday to 1,291.98 ft. St-Lazare’s community flood protection level is 1,294.4 ft., providing approximately 2.7 ft. of freeboard at current water levels.
Water levels at Sioux Valley were measured late yesterday afternoon at 1,204.03 ft., with a forecast peak between 1,204.7 and 1,205.2 ft. Dikes at the Sioux Valley First Nation will provide flood protection to 1,207 ft.
Water levels on the Assiniboine River at the First Street Bridge in Brandon are 1,182.5 ft., increasing 0.34 ft. since yesterday. Flows at the First Street Bridge in Brandon were 38,000 cfs this morning. Without the Shellmouth Reservoir, water levels at Brandon would be 1.6 ft. higher today. Natural flows on the Assiniboine River at Brandon would be greater than the 1882 flood without the benefits provided by the reservoir.
Peak water levels and dates have been reassessed for the Brandon area to account for forecast rains. Forecasters are estimating that flows may reach 41,000 cfs between May 11 and May 13 and water levels will peak between 1,183.1 ft. to 1,183.5 ft. However, these numbers will be updated with any changes in the forecast rain event. Dikes are being raised to provide adequate freeboard at the upper end of the forecast range.
Flows in the Portage Diversion channel this morning are at 24,500 cfs. Inflow upstream of Portage la Prairie is 42,500 cfs. Flows on the Assiniboine River at the diversion were 18,000 cfs this morning.
Water levels in the Baie St. Paul area decreased 0.01 ft. to 799.9 ft. Water levels in the Lido Plage area decreased 0.06 ft. to 777.99 ft. Water levels in the Lido Plage area decreased by
0.06 ft. to 780.25 ft.
Water levels at Headingley decreased by 0.01 ft. since yesterday to 769.32 ft. with flows of 18,460 cfs.
Brandon
The City of Brandon has started a precautionary evacuation of 900 households in the low-lying area around Kirkcaldy Drive.
First Street is closed due to pavement buckling on one lane. Rock is being hauled and a ramp is being constructed to reopen the road and maintain access.
Manitoba Infrastructure and Transportation is working to set up large flood-tube barriers on both sides of PTH 110 to try and maintain road access. The road may close periodically to reinforce and maintain the dikes.
The Brandon Correctional Centre has had supervised inmate crews assisting with sandbagging efforts in the city. The centre has extensive contingency planning in place for various emergencies including flooding. No evacuation of the centre is anticipated at this time.
The city has established a reception centre at the Keystone Centre. Evacuating residents should register at the centre or with the Red Cross at 1-888-662-3211.
The Manitoba government has requested support from the military and is working with the federal government to co-ordinate that response.
Other Areas
Approximately 175 people have evacuated from the Lake St. Martin First Nation because of loss of safe road access.
The flood liaison offices are open 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. in Winnipeg at 945-8373 and in Brandon at
729-1220.
There is extensive and intensive work underway across southern Manitoba to protect homes and communities. People should stay well away from work crews who are working to strengthen and reinforce dikes along the Assiniboine River, particularly in Brandon and in areas from Portage la Prairie to Headingley.
Red River
Water levels just upstream of the Red River floodway inlet are 763.66 ft., with flows of 72,200 cfs. Flows in the floodway are approximately 33,300 cfs.
Water levels on the Red River at James Avenue in Winnipeg have decreased 0.04 ft. to 19.51 ft. Water levels are expected to remain high for an extended period of time. Flows at James Avenue this morning were approximately 58,400 cfs.
The forecast rains are not expected to significantly increase water levels on the Red River, but will likely increase flows on tributaries.
Souris River
Water levels at Melita are 1,410.27 ft. today, decreasing 0.04 ft. since yesterday.
If the forecast rains occur, water levels on the Souris River are expected to rise. Forecasters are determining if this new peak will be greater than previous.
The Pipestone Creek is nearing a second crest, slightly lower than the previous crest. Water levels in Oak Lake have increased to 1,412.27 ft., increasing 0.16 ft. over the last two days.
The Souris River at Wawanesa reached 14,200 cfs today.
Other Major Waterways
The flood warning for Dauphin Lake and all inflowing tributaries remains in effect.
The flood warning for streams influenced by snowmelt in the Duck Mountains within the Lake Winnipegosis Basin remains in effect.
Lakes
Dauphin Lake water levels have reached flood stage. Communities in the vicinity of Ochre Beach and Dauphin Beach are advised to make necessary flood preparations.
Maps indicating wind-eliminated inundation areas around the south basin of Lake Manitoba are available on the Manitoba Water Stewardship flood response website and have been provided to the rural municipalities surrounding the lake to help landowners prepare for high water levels. It is advisable the public make flood preparations that account for these forecast high water levels.
Water levels on Red Deer Lake are forecast to reach flood stage. A high water advisory has been issued for the community of Red Deer Lake. It is advisable the community make necessary flood preparations.
Outflows from Lake Manitoba are estimated at 13,500 cfs as of late yesterday. This flow value will be assessed later today.
Forecasters have estimated peak wind-eliminated water levels for Lake Manitoba and Lake St. Martin; both are forecast to reach high water levels that are unprecedented since regulation of the lakes began in 1961. These forecast elevations are preliminary at this time and may be revised with major weather changes and as computer models are refined.
The risk of shoreline ice pileup today is low on all assessed lakes.
A high water advisory is in effect for all major lakes in Manitoba.
For more information, see www.manitoba.ca/flooding. The most up-to-date highway information is at www.gov.mb.ca/mit/roadinfo or 1-877-MBRoads (1-877-627-6237) and on Twitter by following @MBGov.
