Lake Manitoba
The area around Twin Lakes Beaches and other areas of the RM of St. Laurent are closed due to washed-out roads and debris in the water. There is extensive damage to homes and cottages in the area from the wind and rain storm. Once conditions are safe and roads are passable, the municipality will implement plans for a staged process to allow residents and cottagers to re-enter. There are currently 315 people evacuated from the RM of St. Laurent. The Manitoba government has provided additional staff to support the municipality.
Preliminary estimates have identified 400 properties damaged to various degrees in the RM of St. Laurent. Some have water in the basement; others are more severely damaged.
Homes and cottages are also damaged in the Delta Beach area. The RM of Portage la Prairie is providing residents with access to their properties today. Approximately 20 permanent residences and 150 cottages have been affected.
Western Manitoba
Rivers and streams in southwest Manitoba are rising again due to the storm. Residents along the Souris River and other tributaries are advised to keep flood-protection systems such as sandbag dikes and flood-tube barriers in place.
There are a number of roads damaged or washed out in the Souris and Deloraine areas.
Water levels and dikes are being monitored closely in Brandon.
The Pas
A forecast for the Saskatchewan River at The Pas indicates a new peak between 858 and 859.5 feet (89,000 to 96,000 cubic feet per second [cfs]), which would be 1.8 to 3.3 ft. above the previous crest on April 23. Forecasters predict this peak could occur between June 15 with unfavourable conditions and close to the end of June with favourable conditions. This new crest is a result of significant precipitation occurring in Alberta and Saskatchewan and snowmelt from the Rocky Mountains where this upper portion of the basin received 1½ times the normal snowpack. Saskatchewan government representatives are co-ordinating with Manitoba to operate flood-control structures to reduce downstream flooding. However, additional rain before June 15 may bring water levels at Ralls Island to be between three and 4.5 ft. above flood stage.
As a result of the new forecast, dikes along Ralls Island will need to be raised. Manitoba government officials and the RM of Kelsey are meeting to assess and plan flood-protection measures.
Residents in this area who have flood-protection systems in place are advised to keep them in place.
Dauphin Lake and Ochre River
There are properties affected by the storm and damage assessments are underway. Residents are being allowed to return to their homes and cottages today.
The community ring dike at Ste. Rose du Lac on the Turtle River was closed yesterday due to rising water levels.
Compensation
A unique compensation program has already been announced for the Lake Manitoba area to assist with immediate flood-protection efforts and to address long-term flood-mitigation efforts such as raising or moving homes and cottages. The Lake Manitoba support is part of the recently announced $175-million Building and Recovery Plan.
Disaster financial assistance is also available for homes affected by flooding.
Residents are advised to keep receipts and document damage and efforts undertaken to prevent damage with photographs.
Flood Forecast
There is a strong wind warning in effect for Lake Manitoba, Lake Winnipeg and Lake Winnipegosis. Wind direction will generally be southeast today between 30 to 40 km/h for most of southern Manitoba. Lake St. Martin communities are particularly affected by south winds. Municipalities and residents are advised to prepare for wind-affected lake levels and significant wave uprush along the shoreline of the lake.
An intense, unstable weather system has rapidly developed over the RMs of Elton, Cornwallis, Oakland, and the Brandon-Carberry-Wawanesa areas that may bring hail, strong winds and severe thunderstorms. Currently, the Oak Lake area has received 27 millimetres, Antler, N.D., has received 23 mm and Mayfield, Sask., has received 17 mm so far today. Forecasters are assessing the impacts of this additional precipitation on the Souris and Assiniboine rivers. Unstable weather is forecast for the next few days, bringing additional rainfall and resultant water level rises.
Nearly all of the rain from this rainfall and rain over the next few days will run-off due to highly saturated soils.
This new unstable weather system and the precipitation received earlier this week will result in significant water level rises in the Souris River. Due to significant rains over the last week, flows in the U.S. portion of the basin have increased dramatically at Verendrye, south of Minot, N.D., and at Westhope, near the U.S.-Canada border. Flows at Westhope today were estimated to be 7,200 cfs with a forecast peak between 13,000 to 14,000 cfs between June 14 and 18. These flows are above the 1976 record of 12,400 cfs. Forecasters are estimating the implications of these record flows for downstream portions of the river in Manitoba.
Water levels on Dauphin Lake increased 0.8 ft. since May 30 due to the storm and are forecast to continue increasing in the next few days to reach 860.6 ft. With unfavourable weather conditions, it is anticipated that lake levels could reach the upper range of the forecast peak at around 861.2 ft. some time near the end of June.
The heavy rains over the last few days have saturated soils. Any further rainfall within the next two days will result in run-off or storage in local surface depressions.
A strong wind warning is in effect for Lake Winnipeg, Lake Manitoba and Lake Winnipegosis.
Flood warnings remain in place for the Souris River; the Assiniboine River at all points downstream of the Shellmouth Dam; Pipestone Creek, all reaches; Oak Lake and Plum Lakes; Plum Creek to the Souris River (including the town of Souris); and the Qu’Appelle River in the St-Lazare area.
A flood watch is in place for tributaries of the Assiniboine River.
A high water advisory remains in place for all major lakes in Manitoba and the Saskatchewan River.
Red River floodway operations will end today. However, due to work on the structure, Courchaine Road will remain closed until the weekend.
Lakes
Manitoba Water Stewardship’s flood forecasting website provides information on forecast peak water levels for Lake Pineimuta, Lake Manitoba, Lake St. Martin and Dauphin Lake, as well as wave uprush illustrations and other flood information.
Lake levels at Oak and Plum Lake are high and continue to contribute high flows to Plum Creek. Severe weather in the vicinity of the Oak and Plum lakes will likely increase water levels and contribute to higher sustained flows on Plum Creek.
The estimated outflow from the Fairford River water control structure is 17,380 cfs today. The structure continues to operate at full capacity due to the high level of Lake Manitoba.
Assiniboine River
This new unstable weather system and the precipitation received earlier this week have contributed to water level rises in the Assiniboine River. Forecasters are assessing the impacts of this additional rain on the Assiniboine River.
Water levels on the Shellmouth Reservoir are 1,410.39 ft., decreasing 0.43 ft. since yesterday. Inflow into the Shellmouth Reservoir is 3,530 cfs and outflow is 6,610 cfs today.
Water levels on the Assiniboine River at the First Street Bridge in Brandon are 1,178.20 ft., increasing 0.49 ft. since yesterday. Flows at the First Street Bridge are estimated to be 20,900 cfs.
Inflow upstream of Portage la Prairie is 33,820 cfs. Flows in the Portage Diversion channel are 16,940 cfs. Flows on the Assiniboine River at the Portage Reservoir control gates are 16,880 cfs.
Water levels in the Baie St. Paul area are 799.93 ft., a decrease of 0.05 ft. since yesterday.
Souris River
As a result of the recent storm event, water levels have increased significantly along the downstream end of the Souris River in the towns of Souris and Wawanesa. Water levels increased 2.49 ft. at Souris and 3.03 ft. at Wawanesa.
Tributaries to the Souris River also increased significantly. Plum Creek increased 1.5 ft. since yesterday to 1,378.4 ft.
Water levels on the Souris River increased to 1,410.34 at Melita, 1,358.83 ft. at Souris and 1,158.61 ft. at Wawanesa since yesterday. Flows on Souris River at Wawanesa are estimated to be 19,000 cfs today. Water levels at Wawanesa are currently 0.82 ft. higher than peak levels reached on April 26.
