Evacuations occurred over the weekend in a number of areas due to overland flooding and high lake levels. Affected communities include the Lake Manitoba, Ebb and Flow, Sandy Bay and Sioux Valley First Nations, the Ochre River/Crescent Beach area on Dauphin Lake, and the RMs of Woodlands and Siglunes. Across Manitoba, there are currently 2,058 Manitobans evacuated from their homes.
Work to reinforce and construct dikes at Ralls Island in The Pas is underway. Additional protection is required as a result of Saskatchewan flood forecasts for the Saskatchewan River.
Provincial sandbagging machines are working in the The Pas, at the Brandon Correctional Centre, the Kapyong Barracks, Crane River and in the RM of Ste. Rose.
Approximately 30 Manitoba Conservation staff are assisting with flood-fighting efforts in the Dauphin Lake/Ochre River area.
Employees from both the provincial and federal governments are assisting with sandbagging and dike construction for the next two days in the RM of Coldwell.
The scale, scope and ongoing nature of this year’s flood can be very challenging for affected Manitoba families. There are resources to help deal with stress and anxiety which result from a crisis situation such as this flood. Resources include Manitoba Farm and Rural Support Services 1-866-367-3276 (1-866-FOR-FARM) toll-free; Klinic Community Health Centre 24-hour Crisis Line 786-8686 in Winnipeg or 1-888-322-3019 toll-free; and Health Links-Info Santé which can also help find resources through local regional health authorities or the community mental-health services office 788-8200 in Winnipeg or 1-888-315-9257 toll-free. Additional information and tips are available online.
Flood Forecast
Environment Canada has issued a strong wind warning for Lake Manitoba and all of Lake Winnipeg. Municipalities and residents are advised to prepare for wind-affected lake levels and significant wave uprush along the shoreline of the lakes.
The Manitoba government has a wind set-up alert system for Lake Winnipeg’s south basin, Lake Manitoba, Lake Winnipegosis and Dauphin Lake. There are three levels of alerts: moderate, high and severe. If wind set-up is forecast to be light, no alert will be issued. Alerts will be provided daily when winds are a concern and posted online.
Today a high wind set-up alert has been issued for Lake Manitoba’s west and south shore, Lake Winnipeg’s west shore and Dauphin Lake’s south shore. This alert includes communities such as the Sandy Bay First Nation, Delta Beach, Gimli, Dunnottar, Winnipeg Beach, Ochre Beach and Dauphin Beach.
Today a moderate wind-set up alert is issued for the south shore of Lake Winnipegosis, the west shore of Lake Manitoba’s North Basin and the west shore of Lake Winnipeg’s Traverse Bay. This includes communities such as Traverse Bay, Victoria Beach, Crane River, Spence Lake and Winnipegosis.
Forecast peak flows for the Souris River are as follows:
• In Melita, with average weather conditions water levels are forecast to reach 1,411.2 ft. and under unfavourable weather conditions could reach 1,412.0 ft. between June 16 and 22. The upper range of the forecast peak is 0.34 ft. above the previous crest on April 22.
• Due to heavy rains, water levels in Souris are near crest at 1,359.99 ft. This level is 0.13 ft. above the previous crest on April 23.
In Wawanesa, with average weather conditions water levels could reach 1,158.3 ft. and under unfavourable conditions are forecast to reach 1,159.3 ft. between June 7 and 11. This forecast crest is due to recent heavy rains. The upper range of this forecast is 1.33 ft. above the crest reached on April 26.
Water levels on the Saskatchewan River near The Pas are expected to reach 855.5 to 857 ft., depending on the weather.
A flood warning is in place for the Souris River; the Assiniboine River at all points downstream of the Shellmouth Dam; Pipestone Creek, all reaches; Oak Lake and Plum Lakes; Plum Creek to the Souris River (including the town of Souris); and the Qu’Appelle River in the St-Lazare area.
A high water advisory has been issued for all major lakes in Manitoba and the Saskatchewan River, all points in Manitoba.
Lakes
A new forecast has been developed by Manitoba Hydro for Lake Winnipeg. Peak water levels are forecast to reach between 716.8 ft. by mid-July.
The province’s Lake Manitoba forecast peak is between 816.3 and 816.5 ft. around July 5, depending on weather. New inundation maps are being created for Lake Manitoba based on 816.5 ft. and will be available later this week. Lake St. Martin is forecasted to reach between 805.2 and 805.4 ft. around July 25. Lake Pineimuta is forecast to reach 808.5 ft. and with unfavourable weather, 808.8 ft.
The estimated outflow from the Fairford River water control structure is 18,400 cubic feet per second (cfs) today. The structure continues to operate at full capacity due to the high level of Lake Manitoba.
Lake levels at Oak and Plum lakes are high and continue to contribute high flows to Plum Creek.
Assiniboine River
Water levels on the Qu’Appelle River at Welby are 16.5 ft. today, decreasing 0.05 ft. since yesterday.
Water levels on the Shellmouth Reservoir are 1,408.95 ft., decreasing 0.32 ft. since yesterday. Inflow into the Shellmouth Reservoir is 3,360 cfs and outflow is 5,445 cfs today.
Water levels on the Assiniboine River at the First Street Bridge in Brandon are at or near crest at 1,179.87 ft., increasing 0.17 ft. since yesterday. Flows at the First Street Bridge are estimated to be 27,000 cfs.
Inflow upstream of Portage la Prairie is 45,340 cfs. Flows in the Portage Diversion channel are 27,390 cfs. Flows on the Assiniboine River at the Portage Reservoir control gates are 17,950 cfs. Inflow into the Portage Reservoir is forecast to reach between 45,340 cfs and 47,000 cfs by June 8 to 10.
Water levels in the Baie St. Paul area are 799.96 ft., an increase of 0.07 ft. since yesterday.
Souris River
Plum Creek decreased 0.11 ft. since yesterday to 1,377.01 ft.
Water levels on the Souris River increased since yesterday to 1,411.03 ft. at Melita, 1,359.99 ft. at Souris and 1,158.03 ft. at Wawanesa. Flows on Souris River at Wawanesa are estimated to be almost 17,900 cfs today.
Other Waterways
Dauphin Lake water levels could reach the upper range of the forecasted peak at around 861.2 ft. some time near the end of June.
Water levels on the Saskatchewan River at Ralls Island are 853.26 ft., with a flow of 61,900 cfs.
