Rainfall across the Souris River basin will contribute heavily into the already flood-swollen Souris River in Manitoba and North Dakota.
The communities of Melita, Souris and Wawanesa will be bolstering flood protection to record-high levels.
Evacuations are underway in Minot, N.D.
New forecasts have been developed for communities along the Souris River in Manitoba including Melita, Souris and Wawanesa.
Water levels at Wawanesa are at 1157.38 ft., decreasing 0.48 ft. since yesterday. The flow at Wawanesa is 17,500 cfs. Water levels at the town of Souris decreased 0.24 ft. since yesterday to 1,358.65 ft. today with flows of 16,600 cfs.
The Souris River is expected to crest in late June to early July and then again at a higher level in mid-July. The forecast ranges were developed with the lower end being favourable conditions, or no further rain, and the upper end as unfavourable conditions, which assume 25 to 30 millimetres of rainfall over saturated soils.
The forecast peak range for mid-July may change if further rainfall is forecast.
Plum Creek decreased 0.29 ft. since yesterday to 1,375.01 ft. A flood warning remains in effect for all reaches of Pipestone Creek and downstream into the Oak and Plum lake system, then on Plum Creek to the Souris River including the town of Souris.
The flood warning for the Souris River remains in effect.
Analyses were done on the per cent of normal annual precipitation received during the period of April 1 to June 21 at some locations in Saskatchewan and Manitoba including Weyburn, Sask., which has received 82 per cent of annual normal precipitation (342 mm), Melita received 51 per cent (516 mm), Souris 65 per cent (518 mm) and Brandon 61 per cent (472 mm).
There is an unstable weather system developing today and tomorrow generally bringing up to 10 mm with localized cells bringing up to 30 mm over most of Alberta and Saskatchewan, southeastern Manitoba and the eastern half of North Dakota over the Red River Basin.
The forecast for the Assiniboine River has been reassessed to account for recent rainfall events and indicates:
The Assiniboine River upstream of the Souris River is expected to continue to decline at a gradual rate. The upper Assiniboine River has not received as much rainfall as the Souris River or Saskatchewan River basins and Shellmouth Reservoir inflows are not expected to be significantly impacted.
Inflow upstream of Portage la Prairie is forecast to begin a more gradual decline and then begin increasing in the next few days due to the recent rainfall over the Souris River basin. The forecast ranges were developed with the lower end being favourable conditions (no further rain) and the upper end as unfavourable conditions, which assume 25 mm to 30 mm of rainfall over saturated soils. The long-term forecast flow can increase with further rainfall. The short term crest is forecast to be 42,000 cfs to 45,000 cfs between June 30 and July 2. The long-term forecast shows flows ranging from 42,000 cfs to 48,000 cfs between July 20 – 25.
At Ralls Island near The Pas, the dike project along the residential area should be completed to the one-in-100-year flood level by tomorrow. Two feet of freeboard will be added once the entire dike is completed. Sandbag dikes are also being constructed along the Carrot River.
The one-stop shop in the RM of St. Laurent will operate again this weekend from 10 a.m. to 2 p.m.
The RM of St. Laurent has extended a mandatory evacuation to residents at the end of Marina Row because of forecast high winds and high lake levels.
Additional evacuations have occurred from the RM of Siglunes (eight), Alonsa (six) and Lake Manitoba First Nations. At this time, 2,649 Manitobans are evacuated from their homes.
There are three, five-member rapid assistance teams from Manitoba Conservation in the RM of Coldwell providing assistance with sandbagging and dike construction. Provincial and federal employees are working in the Lundar Beach area to help sandbag at-risk properties.
Provincial sandbag-making machines continue to run in The Pas, the Brandon Correctional Centre, Kapyong Barracks, Crane River and the RM of Ste. Rose. A machine is also working in the Winnipegosis area.
For more information, see www.manitoba.ca/flooding. The most up-to-date highway information is at www.gov.mb.ca/mit/roadinfo or 1-877-MBRoads (1-877-627-6237) and on Twitter by following @MBGov.
