Cool weather expected until early next week will delay the snowmelt and will mean fields, ditches and drains will remain mostly frozen. It will also slow ice movement in rivers and likely increase ice jams on the Red River. The weather forecast indicates little or no precipitation for the Manitoba portion of the Red River Valley for the next five days, but a significant storm is predicted for the Fargo area during the middle of next week.
Flood Forecast
• Crest predictions for the Red River from Emerson to Winnipeg are the same. Many unknowns remain with respect to the effect of ice blockages on drains and ditches and on the timing and rate of melting of snow and ice on fields. However, the probability of a major flood of 1997 proportions in the Manitoba portion of the Red River has further diminished and is now well below 10 per cent.
• Ice jams on the Red River between Lockport and Selkirk have been relatively stable since yesterday afternoon. Levels remain near record highs in areas upstream of the ice jam including Lockport. Preventive measures continue to be implemented in case the ice jams might worsen. There has been no significant ice jamming from Selkirk to Breezy Point so far.
• A decline in river flows from Ste. Agathe to Lockport has temporarily eased ice jamming concerns in that area. However, stationary ice remains in the river at most points between Emerson and Lake Winnipeg. As a result, the threat of ice jams in rural areas and in Winnipeg will continue for some time until the ice is moving freely.
• Levels of the Red River from Ste. Agathe to Lockport have declined during the past 24 hours due to movement of ice jams in the Lockport area and a decline in flows due to cold weather. Rises will resume at points from Ste. Agathe to Winnipeg by early next week. Further rises are possible from Lockport to Selkirk next week if ice jams don’t move out by that time. Crests from Selkirk to Breezy Point will depend on whether ice jams develop. If no serious jams develop in this area, flooding will be avoided with the exception of some low-lying cottages near Breezy Point.
• The level at the floodway inlet this morning was 229 metres (752 feet), with about 300 cubic feet per second (cfs) of water flowing naturally into the floodway, with a total of 40,200 cfs just upstream of the floodway channel. Ice has not moved at the inlet and this means the floodway operation cannot begin.
• The level in downtown Winnipeg decreased to 5.2 m (17 ft.) from 5.7 m (18.7 ft.) during the 24-hour period ending this morning. Levels continue to rise from Fargo to Morris with rises ranging from 0.58 m (1.9 ft.) at Grand Forks to 0.02 m (0.8 ft.) at Emerson. River rises will resume in Winnipeg early next week. It is possible that a level of 6.25 m (20.5 ft.) could occur in downtown Winnipeg as early as April 3 if ice has not moved out of the city and if operation of the floodway is still not possible.
• Levels of Red River tributaries continue to decline due to the cold weather. However, levels remain quite high due to ice in the channels. Rises will resume when warmer weather returns but it is unlikely that crests predicted earlier this week will be exceeded.
• Much overland flooding continues in the Red River Valley, although the cold weather has turned flooded fields mostly into ice. Overland flooding will likely increase somewhat when snow melts and is expected to continue for two to three weeks, even with favourable weather.
• Levels of the Assiniboine, Souris and Pembina rivers are relatively stable and will remain below flood stage for approximately 10 days. Some overland flooding continues in areas northwest of Brandon where heavy rain fell on March 22.
Overall Flood Response
• The Manitoba Emergency Measures Organization continues to oversee activities and has now opened the Provincial Emergency Co-ordination Centre in Winnipeg.
• An additional 300 pieces of water barrier (flood tubes) are being delivered and will be used in the RM of St. Clement and RM of St. Andrews. Another 600 more will arrive early next week.
• The Amphibexes are being sent to the McIvor Road area, near the PTH 4 bridge.
• Provincial ice-cutting equipment will be sent to the Portage Diversion and to the Whitemud River area later today or tomorrow.
• Due to colder weather, freezing of culverts and ditches in many areas is occurring again which will result in additional overland flooding. Crews are doing their best to address this issue.
• The RM of St. Clements has declared a local state of emergency as it is experiencing overland flooding. The RM is sandbagging and focusing on homes identified as high risk for flooding. It has put out a call for volunteers and is attempting to set up shifts. The RM has also started to construct dikes. There are no evacuations of area residents.
• The RM of West St. Paul still has a local state of emergency and approximately 10 houses have experienced flooding, but no residents have been evacuated. All homes threatened by flooding are protected with dikes and water tubing.
• The RM of St. Andrews still has a local state of emergency, with overland flooding along River Road. Approximately 30 homes have been affected and the residents of 12 homes have been evacuated. Manitoba Water Stewardship has provided a sandbagging machine to the South Fire Hall on Donald Road and Main Street. Volunteers have been arranged from a Hutterite colony in the area to assist with sandbagging. Sandbags are being made and provided to residents of St. Andrews, West St. Paul and St. Clements. Manitoba Water Stewardship and the Office of the Fire Commissioner sent crews yesterday to bring in dirt and raise the road to stop the flow of water. A dike is being constructed in this area and water tubes are being used on five homes identified as high risk for flooding.
• The RM of East St. Paul has declared a local state of emergency. Public works is sandbagging vulnerable points. A registration centre has been opened at the East St. Paul Seniors Centre, if evacuations are required.
• Roseau River Anishinabe First Nation, in conjunction with the Manitoba Association of Native Fire Fighters (MANFF) began an evacuation process for citizens considered to be priority. As of late yesterday, MANFF had evacuated 128 people to Winnipeg. MANFF is reassessing the situation today for the remainder of the community.
• The RMs of La Broquerie, Franklin, St. Laurent and Blandchard continue with local states of emergency, due to overland flooding.
• All residents along the Red River, or in a flood-prone area, are asked to remove or secure items such as propane tanks or hazardous materials to prevent them from floating away in high water and creating a risk.
• The Red Cross has set up a registration phone line at 1-888-662-3211 that will operate from 9 a.m. to 8 p.m. daily. People being evacuated must register with the Red Cross by phone.
• Residents in areas with overland flooding are advised to boil all well water before consuming it or use a safe alternative such as bottled water. The province will pay for bacterial well-water testing in flooded areas of the province.
