Continued cool weather is delaying significant melting of snow until the end of next week and will result in a further decline in flows on small streams and will slow rises on rivers such as the Red River. The weather will also mean there will be little change in ice conditions on the Red. The weather forecast indicates little or no precipitation for Manitoba in the short term, while some rain or snow is expected in the Fargo area Monday.
Flood Forecast
• Crest predictions for the Red from Emerson to Winnipeg remain unchanged at this time and the probability of a flood of 1997 proportions in the Manitoba portion of the Red River remains well below 10 per cent.
• Flooding due to ice jams on the Red River north of Winnipeg continues to be the greatest challenge. Levels remain very high from Lower Fort Garry to Lockport. The crest at Lockport two days ago was the highest ice-associated crest on record but 1997 levels were 0.6 metres (two feet) higher.
• There has been no ice jamming from Selkirk to Breezy Point and river levels have remained stable in the area. Little change is likely for at least the next five days but a risk of ice jams remains after April 6 due to rising river flows.
• A decline in river flows from Ste. Agathe to Lockport has temporarily eased ice-jamming concerns in that portion of the Red. However, ice remains in the river at most points between Emerson and Lake Winnipeg, so the threat of ice jams in areas south of Winnipeg and in Winnipeg still exists. This risk will increase next week as river flows rise and temperatures are forecasted to go up.
• Levels of Red River tributaries continue to decline due to the cold weather. However levels remain quite high due to the effect to increased ice in the channels. Rises will resume when warmer weather returns but it is unlikely that crests observed earlier this week will be exceeded.
• Levels of the Red River from Ste. Agathe to Breezy Point have changed by less than 0.08 m (a quarter foot) during the 24-hour period ending this morning. The river level in downtown Winnipeg decreased slightly to 5.1 m (16.7 ft.). The level rose 0.15 m (half a foot) at Emerson and 0.09 m (0.3 ft.) at Morris.
• The level at the Red River floodway inlet this morning was 229.2 m (751.9 ft.), a decline of 0.003 m (0.1 ft.) since yesterday. As the ice has not moved past the floodway inlet, operation of the floodway has not started.
• The Red River was cresting at Fargo this morning at 12.2 m (40.8 ft.) and rose (0.15 m) half a foot to 14.7 m (48.2 ft.) at Grand Forks.
• Although the cold weather has turned flooded fields mostly into ice, slowing water flowing off fields, overland flooding will likely increase when the snow begins to melt and is expected to continue for two to three weeks, even with favourable weather.
• Levels of the Assiniboine, Souris and Pembina rivers are relatively stable and will remain below flood stage for the next 10 days or so. Some overland flooding continues in areas northwest of Brandon.
Overall Flood Response
• The Manitoba Emergency Measures Organization continues to oversee activities, centered at the provincial emergency co-ordination centre in Winnipeg.
• Roseau River Anishinabe First Nation, in conjunction with the Manitoba Association of Native Fire Fighters (MANFF), continues gradual evacuations of residents. In approximately the past 24 hours, 190 more people have been moved to Winnipeg, bringing the total evacuated to 318 people.
• The City of Selkirk has opened its emergency operations centre and has constructed dikes at Selkirk Park, Gordon Howard Senior Centre and the city well.
• No new local states of emergency have been declared in the past 24 hours, however, the RMs of St. Clements, West St. Paul, St. Andrews, East St. Paul, La Broquerie, Franklin, St. Laurent and Blanchard continue under local states of emergency due to ice jams on the Red River or frozen culverts causing overland flooding.
• An additional 300 pieces of water barrier (flood tubes) have been delivered to areas with the highest need and another 600 pieces are to arrive soon.
• The Portage Diversion is now in operation and provincial equipment is in the area of the diversion and the area of the Whitemud River to cut ice to speed its breakup. The diversion, just west of Portage la Prairie, redirects water from the Assiniboine River about 16 kilometres north to Lake Manitoba which helps lower levels at locations on the Assiniboine including Portage and Winnipeg.
• The Amphibex icebreakers continue to address ice issues on the Red River and have been working in the McIvor Road area near the PTH 4 bridge.
• The province is purchasing additional steam equipment to thaw frozen culverts. The new equipment is expected in to be available in the next few days.
• In areas where the province has responsibility, especially in ring-dike communities, provincial staff are working to keep drains from freezing with steam equipment.
• Due to colder weather, freezing of culverts and ditches in many areas is occurring which creates more overland flooding. Crews continue to use steam equipment to address this issue.
• Residents in areas with overland flooding are reminded to boil all well water before consuming it or use a safe alternative such as bottled water until the waters totally recede. After the waters recede, testing of well water is strongly advised and the province will pay for bacterial well water testing in flooded areas.
• All residents along the Red River, or in flood prone areas, are asked to remove or secure items such as propane tanks or hazardous materials to prevent them from floating away in high water and creating a risk.
• The Red Cross has set up a registration phone line at 1-888-662-3211 which is open from 9 a.m. to 8 p.m. daily. People being evacuated must register with the Red Cross by phone.
• Law enforcement agencies remind motorists to obey road barriers set up to control traffic safety. Water levels can change quickly and roads may have barriers on them even if there is only the potential for flooding. However driving on a closed road is a risk to individuals and is a violation of the law.
