No precipitation is expected for the next five days. Melting will be very gradual until Thursday as temperature forecasts have been revised downward. A more rapid melt is expected to begin on Friday. It now appears that snow in the Red River Valley will not completely melt until next weekend. The slower melt is expected to reduce run-off and peak flows on Manitoba tributaries of the Red River and may lower crests on the Red River.
Flood Forecast
• Predicted crests for the Red River are unchanged from yesterday. The top of the forecast range from Emerson to St. Adolphe was reduced by 0.15 metres (half a foot) yesterday. The forecast for the Red River will be further updated tomorrow.
• The U.S. National Weather Service has indicated that a second crest is possible at some U.S. locations on the Red River if adverse weather conditions develop. It is very unlikely that a second crest would occur in the Manitoba portion in late April or May but the possibility exists if heavy rain develops in the weeks to come.
• Further details are provided below and specific forecasted crest stages are shown on the daily flood sheets issued by Manitoba Water Stewardship. This information may be viewed online.
Emerson to the Floodway Inlet:
• The top of the forecast range at points from Emerson to St. Adolphe was reduced by 0.15 m (half a foot) yesterday. Crests in this portion will be slightly higher than those of 2006 based on favourable weather for the next 10 days. There is still a chance that crests could be near those of 1979 if significant rainfall develops by next weekend.
• Crests from Emerson to the floodway inlet are expected to occur under open water conditions after the ice has moved out. River ice is beginning to shift and is expected to move by the middle of this week. There is a small risk of ice jams temporarily raising levels to those of 1979 or higher. The crest is expected at Emerson April 9 and at the floodway inlet about April 16.
• Levels rose 0.27 m (0.9 ft.) at Emerson and 0.34 m (1.1 ft.) at Morris during the 24-hour period ending this morning. The level at the floodway inlet this morning was 229.63 m (753.37 ft.), a rise of 0.14 m (0.45 ft.) from yesterday morning. The flow into the Red River Floodway was 1,400 cubic feet per second (cfs) of a total 38,600 cfs upstream of the floodway inlet.
• So far this spring, the Red River has risen a total of 10.46 m (34.3 ft.) at Emerson and 7.22 m (23.7 ft.) at Morris.
City of Winnipeg:
• The river level in downtown Winnipeg rose 6.1 centimetres (0.2 ft.) to 5.12 m (16.8 ft.) during the 24-hour period ending this morning. The rise was small as the ice jam north of Lockport has now moved to just south of Selkirk. Flows on the Assiniboine River in Winnipeg are still decreasing. River levels in Winnipeg will begin to increase more rapidly over the next few days.
• The magnitude of the crest in Winnipeg will depend on when river ice moves out of the city and away from the floodway inlet. It is expected that ice will move no later than April 7 to 8. A crest of 6.25 m (20.5 ft.) is predicted if ice is not moving freely by late on April 8. This includes a possible rise of 0.5 m (1.5 ft.) due to minor ice action. If ice moves in the Winnipeg area prior to April 8, peak levels in downtown Winnipeg are likely to be less than 5.94 m (19.5 ft.). There is a small risk of a serious ice jam which would raise river levels above 6.25 m (20.5 ft.). In recent history, ice jams have not raised water levels in the city by more than 0.5 m (1.5 ft.).
• The floodway will operate this year as soon as ice is flowing freely at the inlet structure. However, earlier operation with ice in place may be required due to a combination of high flows and potential ice jams. If the city’s river level is predicted to exceed 6.1 m (20 ft.) at James Avenue within a 24-hour period, the floodway will be operated as necessary to avoid imminent flooding in Winnipeg. This operation would follow the floodway’s Environment Act licence to protect the city of Winnipeg.
• The Red River crest, expected at Drayton, N.D., tomorrow, will reach the Winnipeg area by about April 16. Since river ice will be gone by that time and the Red River Floodway will be in operation, the open water crest in Winnipeg on April 16 will only be about 5.6 m (18.5 ft.) which is about two m (6.6 ft.) lower than it would be without the floodway and other provincial flood control works.
Lockport to Breezy Point:
• There has been little change in river levels from Selkirk to Breezy Point since yesterday but levels at Selkirk are beginning to fluctuate, indicating that ice has begun to shift north of Selkirk. Ice movement should begin by the middle of the week. Crests in this portion of the river will depend very much on the occurrence and severity of ice jams which are unpredictable. Reports indicate that the ice is gradually weakening. Ice-cutting and breaking activities have reduced the risk of serious ice jams developing making it unlikely that the extreme levels of 2007 and 1996 will be repeated.
• With movement of the ice jam at Lower Fort Garry it is unlikely that levels from St. Andrews to Lower Fort Garry will again rise above those experienced during the ice jam in late March
Assiniboine River and Other Areas:
• Minor flooding is expected along the Assiniboine River from St. Lazare to Grand Valley later this April. Moderate to high flows are expected in the Portage la Prairie area late in April due to high levels coming from the Souris River.
• The flow on the Assiniboine River at Portage la Prairie was 5,010 cfs this morning, of which 2,700 cfs was diverted into Lake Manitoba. The outflow from Shellmouth Reservoir remains at 200 cfs. The water level at Shellmouth Reservoir was 423.43 m (1,389.2 ft.) this morning and has risen only 7.6 cm (one quarter of a foot) so far this spring as run-off has been delayed due to cool weather
• River levels in western Manitoba and the Interlake are quite low and stable. Rises will develop next week following warmer temperatures and snowmelt. A potential for minor flooding continues for portions of western Manitoba which received heavy rain on March 22.
• A potential for minor flooding still exists in the Interlake region where run-off has been delayed due to cool weather.
• The flood potential for the Westlake area is quite low. Minor localized flooding may occur late next week.
• The flood potential remains low from Swan River to The Pas.
Flood Response
• One Amphibex will be located near the Redwood Bridge this afternoon. The second Amphibex is expected to be in the city by Monday evening. The province has been working in co-operation with the North Red Community Water Maintenance Corporation to address flood-fighting equipment needs along the Red River.
• The St. Jean Bridge on PR 246 at the Red River will be closed today. Traffic will be rerouted in the area. Please check highway conditions before travelling at www.manitoba.ca or by calling 204-945-3704 or 1-877-627-6237. The province is using concrete barriers to protect the bridge against ice and high river flows.
• PTH 75 on both the north and south ends of Morris will be closed at noon, Tuesday, April 7. Detours will be marked and detour maps can be found at www.manitoba.ca.
• Travel on PR 200 by St. Adolphe could be restricted by mid-week.
• Two ice cutters have finished working along the Whitemud River and may be deployed to other areas as need.
• Flood tubes will be installed at Ste. Agathe this coming week to ensure adequate flood protection.
• Yesterday, 1,830 m (6,000 lineal ft.) of Aqua Dam flood tubes and a trailer were delivered to the City of Winnipeg and another 2,285 m (7,500 lineal ft.) of Aqua Dam flood tubes will be delivered today.
• Eleven steamers are working on frozen culverts in the Red River Valley and north of Winnipeg. There are 26 other steamers ready for deployment and are expected to be in use this coming week.
• There are three Flood Liaison Offices in operation. They are open seven days a week from 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. and are located in Winnipeg (204-945-2354), Morris (204-746-7325) and Brandon (204‑729-1220).
