No precipitation is expected for the rest of this week except for a few flurries tomorrow. Melting will be very gradual until Thursday with a more rapid melt beginning on Friday. Snow in the Red River Valley should be melted by next Saturday and most of the snow in western Manitoba should be melted by Easter Monday.
Flood Forecast
• There is very little change in the crest forecasts for the Red River although the forecast for Emerson has been adjusted back up by 15.2 centimetres (six inches). Yesterday, crest forecasts for the portion from Emerson to the floodway inlet had been reduced by 15.2 cm (six in.). The threat of ice jamming continues for portions from St. Jean Baptiste to Breezy Point where ice is still in place. While ice is slow to move this year due to two weeks of cool weather, it is likely that it will move as early as late today or by Thursday at most locations.
• The U.S. National Weather Service has indicated that a second crest is possible at some U.S. locations on the Red River if adverse weather conditions develop. It is very unlikely that a second crest would occur in the Manitoba portion in late April or May but the possibility exists if heavy rain develops in the weeks to come.
• Overland flooding is expected to develop in many portions of the Red River Valley, especially in areas from the Red River east to the Ontario boundary beginning on the Easter weekend and continuing next week. Flooding will subside by late next week after drainage systems are cleared of ice. Flooding could continue longer if significant rainfall develops next week. Minor flooding could occur on the Roseau River in the Stuartburn area and on the Seine River near Dufresne and Lorette before the river channels clear of ice early next week.
• Further details are provided below and specific forecasted crest stages are shown on the daily flood sheets issued by Manitoba Water Stewardship.
Emerson to the Floodway Inlet:
• Predicted crests from Emerson to the floodway inlet were reduced by 15.2 cm (six in.) yesterday due to a gradual melt and anticipated dry weather. Crests in this portion will be a little higher than those of 2006 and somewhat lower than those of 1979. Levels could temporarily reach 1979 crests if significant ice jams develop.
• Crests from Emerson to the floodway inlet will likely occur under open water conditions after the ice has moved out. Ice has already moved out from Emerson to Letellier and should move out of the St. Jean Baptiste and Morris areas today. It is likely that some ice will remain upstream of the bridge at St. Jean since the bridge is partially submerged.
• The crest is expected at Emerson April 9 and at the floodway inlet about April 16.
• Levels rose 21.3 cm (8.5 in.) at Emerson, and 0.55 m (1.8 ft.) at Morris during the 24-hour period ending this morning. The level at the floodway inlet this morning was 230 m (754.58 ft.), a rise of 20.12 cm (0.66 ft.) from yesterday morning.
• As of this morning, the Red River had risen 11.16 m (35.6 ft.) at Emerson and 7.9 m (26.8 ft.) at Morris so far this spring.
City of Winnipeg:
• The river level in downtown Winnipeg rose 11.3 cm (4.4 in.) to 5.3 m (17.4 ft.) during the 24-hour period ending this morning. River levels in Winnipeg will increase more rapidly during the next few days and could reach 5.5 m (18 ft.) by tomorrow afternoon.
• There will most likely be two crests in Winnipeg this spring. The first crest of up to 6.25 m (20.5 ft.) is expected April 8 to 9 because of ice conditions. This crest forecast includes 0.5 m (1.5 ft.) due to minor ice jamming which commonly occurs. The second crest, resulting from the flow crest coming from the United States, is expected around April 16 and will be only about 5.5 m (18 ft.).
The second crest is lower since ice will be gone and the Red River Floodway will be in full operation. The second crest will be about 2.1 m (7 ft.) lower than it would be without the floodway and other provincial flood control works.
• The magnitude of the crest in Winnipeg will depend on when river ice moves out of the city and from the floodway inlet area. The ice could move as early as this evening (April 7) or as late as Thursday morning (April 9). The river crest elevation will depend on when the ice moves. There is a small risk that levels could rise above 6.25 m (20.5 ft.) due to a serious ice jam developing. In recent history, ice jams have not raised water levels in the city by more than 0.5 m (1.5 ft.).
• The flow into the Red River Floodway at St. Norbert was 5,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) this morning while the total flow in the Red River just upstream of the floodway inlet was 46,000 cfs. Floodway flows are occurring naturally even though the floodway has not yet been operated. The floodway will operate this year as soon as ice is flowing freely at the inlet structure. However, earlier operation with ice in place may be required due to a combination of high flows and potential ice jams. If the city’s river level is predicted to exceed 6.1 m (20 ft.) at James Avenue within a 24-hour period, the floodway will be operated as necessary to avoid imminent flooding in Winnipeg. This operation would follow the floodway’s Environment Act licence to protect the city of Winnipeg.
• The Red River crest is presently at Drayton, N.D. where the level has not changed since yesterday.
Lockport to Breezy Point:
• Crests in this portion of the river will depend very much on the occurrence and severity of ice jams which are unpredictable. Ice is expected to begin moving tomorrow or Thursday. Reports indicate that the ice is gradually weakening. Ice-cutting and breaking activities have reduced the risk of serious ice jams developing and therefore it is unlikely that the extreme levels of 2007 and 1996 will be repeated. The Red River rose 12.2 cm (4.8 in.) at Selkirk during the 24-hour period ending this morning.
• The ice jam located just south of the steam plant near East Selkirk intensified yesterday evening as remaining ice from Lower Fort Garry moved north and lodged against the jam. Levels rose up to 1.5 m (five ft.) in a matter of hours after 6 p.m. Levels in the area have stabilized this morning.
• With movement of the ice at Lower Fort Garry, it is unlikely that levels from St. Andrews to Lower Fort Garry will again rise above those experienced during the ice jam in late March. The river level at Lockport declined a further 9.1 cm (3.6 in.) since yesterday due to movement of the ice at Lower Fort Garry.
Assiniboine River:
• Minor flooding is expected along the Assiniboine River from St. Lazare to Grand Valley later this April. Moderate to high flows are expected in the Portage la Prairie area late in April due to high levels coming from the Souris River.
• The flow on the Assiniboine River at Portage la Prairie was 4,845 cfs this morning, of which 2,660 cfs were diverted into Lake Manitoba. The flow in the river downstream of the diversion was reduced to 1,500 cfs from 2,185 cfs at 11 a.m. today to further reduce flows at Winnipeg.
• The outflow from Shellmouth Reservoir remains at 200 cfs. The water level of Shellmouth Reservoir has risen little so far this spring and, with a slow melt reducing run-off, the outflow may soon be reduced further.
Souris River:
• Levels of the Souris River have begun to rise significantly with a rise of 25.9 cm (10.2 in.) at Melita since yesterday morning. Over-bank flows have developed in the Coulter area and will develop in areas further north by late next week. A crest of about 30.5 cm (one ft.) lower than that of 1999 is still expected several weeks from now.
Other Rivers:
• Minor flooding is still anticipated in the Interlake region next week following snowmelt. The flooding will be similar in magnitude to that of 2007. Some diking is underway at the Peguis First Nation and the community of Fisher River where ice often causes water to back up and flood low-lying properties.
• Levels of the Pembina River remain relatively low but will increase next week following the significant snowmelt expected this weekend. Flooding of the Pembina Valley from Rock Lake to La Rivière is anticipated but levels should be lower than those of 2006. No difficulties are expected in the Gretna area. The level of Rock Lake this morning was 406.12 m (1,332.4 ft.) The lake is expected to rise to near 407.52 m (1,337 ft.) this spring.
• The flood potential for the Westlake area is quite low. Minor localized flooding may occur late next week.
• The flood potential remains low from Swan River to The Pas.
Flood Response
• Two homes in the RM of St. Andrews were flooded as a result of ice jamming on the Red River just south of Selkirk.
• As of today Manitoba Infrastructure and Transportation has put in place the following travel restrictions on PTH 75:
• Winnipeg city limits to PR 205 – closed, local traffic only;
• PR 205 to Morris – closed; and
• Morris to PTH 14 – closed, local traffic only.
• An alternate route detour for PTH 75 will be in effect for through traffic using PTH 3, 14 and 75 (south of PTH 14).
• All closures on PTH 75 are signed and marked and detour signs are in place to direct traffic.
• The alternate route detour for PTH 75 will be in effect. The detour will be as follows:
• southwest on PTH 3 for 62 km from the Perimeter Highway (PTH 100) to Carman,
• south on PTH 3 for 35 km from Carman to the junction of PTH 14,
• east on PTH 14 for 50 km to PTH 75, and
• south on PTH 75 for 22 km to the U.S. border (the Emerson/Pembina port of entry).
• PTH 75 was last closed in 2006 from April 10 to 28.
• The ring dike on the north side of Morris was closed completely at noon and the CP and CN tracks on the north end of Morris will also be closed today. Closures on the south side of Morris will proceed later this week.
• The ring dike on the north side of St. Jean Baptiste will be closed later today.
• The ring dike at St. Adolphe will partially close tomorrow allowing only local access into the town on PR 200.
• Aqua dams will be set up in Ste. Agathe later this week.
• The St. Jean Baptiste Bridge on PR 246 at the Red River remains closed. Traffic has been rerouted in the area. The province is using concrete barriers to protect the bridge against ice and high river flows.
• Motorists should check highway conditions before travelling at www.manitoba.ca or call 204-945-3704 or 1 877-627-6237.
• Two ice cutters are beginning work on the Icelandic River near Riverton today.
• Sandbagging of at-risk homes at Peguis First Nation has started. The province is working with the community to assess what additional assistance may be required.
• Two staff from the Manitoba Emergency Measures Organization will be in Emerson as the crest comes through to provide assistance. The team will move up the valley as the crest moves through southern Manitoba.
• Once the ice moves, five hydrometric crews will work along the Red River to record water levels and flows.
• The two Amphibex machines are on standby in Winnipeg to deal with ice jams as needed. One is near the Redwood Bridge and the other is at the south Perimeter bridge. Three track excavators with extended reaches are also on standby at the St. Mary’s Road Bridge over the floodway to address potential ice jams.
• The province has 37 steamers working across the southern areas of the province to thaw frozen culverts and drains.
• Sixty Aquadams and 60 Tiger tubes have been provided to the City of Winnipeg, bringing the total to 120 provincial flood tubes available for use in the city. One Aquadam and 46 Tiger tubes were installed on Kingston Row and two Aquadams were installed on Turnbull Drive.
• Customers in flooded areas who have questions about any aspect of their mail delivery can call Canada Post toll-free at 1-800-267-1177.
• A live provincial webcam is currently running at the floodway structure and can be found at www.manitoba.ca.
• There are three Flood Liaison Offices in operation. They are open seven days a week from 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. and are located in Winnipeg (945-2354), Morris (204-746-7325) and Brandon (204 729 1220).
