There is a chance of showers on Easter Sunday, otherwise no precipitation is expected in the next five days. Fast melting is expected this weekend. Snow and ice on fields in the Red River Valley should be melted this weekend and most of the snow in western Manitoba should also be melted by Sunday.
Flood Forecast
• There is no change in the crest forecasts for the Red River or for other rivers in Manitoba. Forecasts are based on normal weather conditions for the next few weeks.
• Overland flooding is expected to develop in many portions of the Red River Valley, especially in areas from the Red River east to the Ontario boundary beginning on the Easter weekend and continuing next week. Flooding will subside by late next week after the drainage system is cleared of ice. Flooding could continue longer if significant rainfall develops next week. Minor flooding could occur on the Roseau River in the Stuartburn area and on the Seine River near Dufresne and Lorette before ice clears in the river channels early next week.
• Further details are provided below and specific forecasted crest stages are shown on the daily flood sheets issued by Manitoba Water Stewardship.
Red River Floodway:
• Manitoba Water Stewardship advises the Red River Floodway gates were raised for the first time in 2009 at approximately 1 p.m. this afternoon.
• Engineering staff recommended the immediate partial operation of the floodway. The gradual raising of the gates is expected to minimize the diversion of ice into the floodway channel and hold city river levels at 5.64 metres (18.5 feet) at James Avenue while maintaining less-than-natural levels upstream.
• This operation is necessary to avoid the risk of flooding in Winnipeg due to the combination of high river flows and the potential for a serious ice jam. Future floodway operations will depend upon ice conditions both upstream and downstream of the structure.
• Ice is staying unusually stable, even as water flows increase in the city. Normally ice at the floodway inlet moves when flows reach 45,000 cubic feet per second (cfs). Flows are currently 49,700 cfs at the floodway inlet and the ice is still firmly in place.
• Two Amphibexes will be breaking ice upstream of the Redwood Bridge and the South Perimeter Bridge to weaken the ice to facilitate ice movement with the city.
• In addition, three excavators are working along the floodway channel at the St. Mary’s Road Bridge to deal with ice. Yesterday, this heavy equipment successfully broke up ice that had flowed naturally into the floodway channel.
• Ice has shifted but remains in place in the St. Adolphe area.
Emerson to the Floodway Inlet:
• Crests in this portion will be a little higher than those of 2006 and somewhat lower than those of 1979. Ice remains upstream of bridges but should be on the move today or tomorrow with little chance of ice jamming.
• The crest is expected at Emerson Friday, at Morris on Sunday and at the floodway inlet next Wednesday.
• Levels rose 12.19 centimetres (0.4 feet) at Emerson, and 0.3 metres (1.6 ft.) at Morris during the 24-hour period ending this morning. The level at the floodway inlet this morning was 230 m (755.48 ft.), a rise of 0.27 m (0.9 ft.) from yesterday morning.
• As of this morning, the Red River had risen 11 m (36 ft.) at Emerson and 8.66 m (28.4 ft.) at Morris so far this spring.
Floodway Inlet:
• Large ice pans just upstream of the floodway inlet control structure at St. Norbert are not expected to move for another day or two. As a result, ice is flowing into the floodway channel and is lodging against the St. Mary’s Road Bridge. The ice is being removed with long-reach backhoes. If heavy ice flows from St. Adolphe enter the floodway channel, there is an increased risk of a partial blockage of the floodway. This would result in additional water flowing through the control structure and the need to consider further rise of the floodway gates to avoid high levels in the city.
• The flow into the Red River Floodway is estimated at 5,500 cfs this morning of a total 49,700 cfs upstream of the floodway inlet.
City of Winnipeg:
• The river level in downtown Winnipeg rose 0.17 m (0.56 ft.) to 5.45 m (17.95 ft.) during the 24-hour period ending this morning. The river level in downtown Winnipeg will rise to about 5.64 m (18.5 ft.) by tomorrow morning if there is no change in ice conditions. Minor ice jamming in the city could raise levels a further 0.46 m (1.5 ft.) to 6.1 m (20 ft.). However, if a serious ice jam occurs, levels could be higher. Properties in the city have been protected to 7.16 m (23.5 ft.) (James Avenue equivalent) in most areas and 7.47 m (24.5 ft.) in the south part of the city.
• A second crest, resulting from the flow crest coming from the United States, is expected around April 16 and will be only about 5.45 m (18 ft.). The second crest is lower since ice will be gone and the Red River Floodway will be in full operation. The second crest will be about 2.1 m (7 ft.) lower than it would be without the floodway and other provincial flood control works.
• The Red River crested at Drayton, N.D., yesterday and has fallen six cm (2.4 inches) since that time.
Lockport to Breezy Point:
• Crests in this portion of the river will depend on the occurrence and severity of ice jams, which are unpredictable. Ice is expected to begin moving by this Saturday. Reports indicate the ice is gradually weakening. Ice-cutting and breaking activities have reduced the risk of serious ice jams developing and therefore it is unlikely the extreme levels of 2007 and 1996 will be repeated. The Red River rose 0.21 m (0.7 ft.) at Selkirk during the 24-hour period ending this morning.
• An ice jam remains just south of the steam plant near East Selkirk but is weakening. Levels upstream of the jam have declined by up to 0.61 m (two ft.) since yesterday.
• The river level at Lockport declined a further 0.23 m (0.75 ft.) since yesterday as the ice jam began subsiding south of Selkirk.
Assiniboine River:
• Minor flooding is expected along the Assiniboine River from St. Lazare to Grand Valley later this month. Moderate to high flows are expected in the Portage la Prairie area late this month due to a high contribution from the Souris River.
• Some flooding is expected on Assiniboine tributaries from Brandon to Birtle next week. Run-off in this area was not completed due to cold weather following a heavy March 22 rainstorm.
• The flow on the Assiniboine River at Portage la Prairie was 5,540 cfs this morning, of which 3,780 cfs was diverted into Lake Manitoba. The flow in the river downstream of the diversion was 1,760 cfs this morning and will be maintained near 1,500 cfs to minimize flows toward Winnipeg.
• The outflow from Shellmouth Reservoir remains at 200 cfs. The water level of Shellmouth Reservoir has risen only 0.16 m (0.5 ft.) so far this spring and with a slow melt reducing run-off, the outflow may soon be reduced to 100 cfs.
Souris River:
• Rises along the Souris River were minimal since yesterday, possibly due to ice shifting. However over-bank flows have developed in the Coulter area and will develop in areas further north by late next week. A crest of about 0.3 m (one ft.) lower than that of 1999 is still expected several weeks from now.
Other Rivers:
• Minor flooding is still anticipated in the Interlake region next week following snowmelt. The flooding will be similar in magnitude to that of 2007. Some diking is underway at the Peguis First Nation and the community of Fisher River, where ice often causes water to back up and flood low-lying properties.
• Levels of the Pembina River remain relatively low but will increase next week following the significant snowmelt expected this weekend. Flooding of the Pembina Valley from Rock Lake to La Riviere is anticipated but levels should be lower that those of 2006. No difficulties are expected in the Gretna area. Rock Lake is expected to rise to nearly 407.52 m (1,337 ft.) this spring.
• The flood potential for the Westlake area is quite low. Minor localized flooding may occur late next week.
• The flood potential remains low from Swan River to The Pas.
Flood Response
• PTH 75 is closed, allowing for local traffic only on some sections. The alternate route detour is via PTH 3 and PTH 14.
• All closures on PTH 75 are signed and marked and detour signs are in place to direct traffic.
• The ring dike on the north side of Morris is closed. Closures to the railways on the south side of Morris will occur today.
• The ring dikes are partially closed at Ste. Jean Baptiste, Letellier and Emerson.
• The ring dike at St. Adolphe partially closed today. There is local access into the town on PR 200.
• The Ste. Jean Baptiste Bridge on PR 246 at the Red River remains closed. Traffic has been rerouted in the area. The province is using concrete barriers to protect the bridge against ice and high river flows.
• Motorists should check highway conditions before travelling at www.manitoba.ca or call
204-945-3704 or 1-877-627-6237.
• Two ice cutters are continuing to work on the Icelandic River near Riverton.
• Aquadams will be set up in Ste Agathe today.
• Sandbagging of at-risk homes at Peguis First Nation is continuing. The province is working with the community to assess what additional assistance may be required.
• The province has 37 steamers to thaw frozen culverts and drains across southern Manitoba.
• The Office of the Fire Commissioner has river patrols positioned at Emerson, Letellier and
Ste. Jean Baptiste.
• The province took delivery of 7,620 m (25,000 lineal ft.) of flood tubes late yesterday. Selkirk now has 15 Aquadams to provide protection around the Marine Museum.
• Customers in flooded areas who have questions about any aspect of their mail delivery can call Canada Post toll-free at 1-800-267-1177.
• A live provincial webcam is currently running at the floodway structure and can be found at www.manitoba.ca.
• There are three Flood Liaison Offices in operation. They are open seven days a week from 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. and are located in Winnipeg (945-2354), Morris (204-746-7325) and Brandon
(204-729-1220).
Evacuations
• The Manitoba Association of Native Fire Fighters (MANFF) has facilitated additional evacuations from the community of Sioux Valley due to contamination from sewer backup caused by the heavy rain event on March 22 and 23. Fifty people have been evacuated from their homes and are staying with friends and family in the community and 20 people have been evacuated to hotels in Brandon.
• The MANFF in consultation with Roseau River First Nation residents have undertaken a partial return of evacuees to their homes. The MANFF is co‑ordinating this return process. At this time, 481 residents remain in Winnipeg.
