Showers are expected on Easter Sunday and Monday. Fast melting is expected this weekend. Snow and ice on fields in the Red River Valley should be melted this weekend and most of the snow in western Manitoba should also be melted by Monday.
Flood Forecast
• The forecast for the Red River in Winnipeg has been raised 0.5 m (1.5 ft.) because river ice in the Winnipeg area may not move until tomorrow afternoon. The predicted crest for the floodway inlet remains the same but the forecast for north of the floodway has been raised by 0.6 to 0.9 m (two to three ft.) based on ice in the St. Norbert area not moving until late tomorrow. Forecasts have been adjusted slightly from Letellier to St. Adolphe based on the latest trends.
• Overland flooding is expected to develop in many portions of the Red River Valley, especially in areas from the Red River east to the Ontario boundary, beginning on the Easter weekend and continuing next week. Flooding will subside by late next week after drainage systems are cleared of ice. Flooding could continue longer if significant rainfall develops.
• Levels on the Roseau River in the Stuartburn area were near bank-full yesterday morning but have since declined because ice is moving out. Near bank-full levels area expected on the Seine River near Dufresne and Lorette this weekend before the channel ice moves out.
• The provincial government has taken action to minimize overland flooding as much as possible by steaming frozen culverts and opening blockages in the drains wherever possible.
• Further details are provided below and specific forecasted crest stages are shown on the daily flood sheets issued by Manitoba Water Stewardship.
Red River Floodway:
• Due to unprecedented ice conditions, the floodway gates were raised again today to stabilize river levels in Winnipeg to 6.1 metres (20 feet) at James Avenue. This operation is necessary to address the reduced effectiveness of floodway operations because of ice at the floodway inlet and in the floodway channel.
• The extremely unusual combination of high flows with persistent ice cover and ice jams is raising river levels within Winnipeg higher than previously forecast, especially in the southern portion of the city.
• This operation follows the floodway operating rules and is not expected to raise river levels south of the floodway above natural levels. The floodway operation combined with increased flows from the south will raise levels south of the floodway to about 232.3 m (762 ft.) within the next 24 hours, which is still below the predicted crest of 232.9 to 233.2 m (764 to 765 ft.) on April 15 to 16.
• A substantial ice run into the floodway channel, which could take place at any time, may further reduce the effectiveness of floodway operations and create emergency conditions in vulnerable areas of Winnipeg. There remains a significant risk of a serious ice jam in the city that could increase river levels by up to 0.9 m (three ft.) in three or four hours. Properties in the city have been protected to 7.16 m (23.5 ft.), the James Avenue equivalent, in most areas and 7.47 m (24.5 ft.) in the southern part of the city. Without the operation of the floodway, it is possible an ice jam could overtop dikes outside of the city’s primary diking system
• If an emergency occurs, consideration will be given to vary the floodway operating rules in accordance with the floodway’s Environment Act licence to further raise the floodway gates to avoid imminent flooding in Winnipeg. Operation under such circumstances would not cause river levels south of the floodway to exceed the previously forecasted peak, but levels in this area would rise more quickly than previously expected. Properties directly south of the floodway are well-protected to 1997 levels plus 0.6 m (two ft.). The predicted water levels are below these protection measures, although some land and roads in the area will flood.
• Residents living south of the floodway should move any vehicles or other items that may be affected by flood waters to higher ground and finalize the closing of their private ring dikes.
• There are eight track excavators with long-reach back hoes and two Cat machines to tackle and remove the ice between the floodway inlet and St. Mary’s Road Bridge over the floodway. A crane and ball will also be put on standby on the St. Mary’s Bridge.
Emerson to the Floodway Inlet:
• Crests in this portion will be a little higher than those of 2006 and somewhat lower than those of 1979. Ice remains in many areas from Morris to the St. Adolphe area but is expected to clear out by late today.
• The crest is at Emerson today and is expected at Morris on Sunday and at the floodway inlet next Wednesday.
• Levels rose 6.1 centimetres (2.4 inches) at Emerson and 0.4 m (1.3 ft.) at Morris during the 24-hour period ending this morning. The level at the floodway inlet this morning was 231 m (758 ft.), a rise of 0.8 m (2.5 ft.) from yesterday morning. A portion of this rise is due to operation of the flood control structure.
• As of this morning, the Red River had risen 11 m (36.2 ft.) at Emerson and 9 m (29.7 ft.) at Morris so far this spring.
Floodway Inlet:
• Ice is flowing into the floodway channel and is lodging against the St. Mary’s Road bridge. The ice is reducing the capacity of the floodway and is causing higher levels in the area of the inlet. However, the crest forecast upstream of the control structure remains at 232.9 to 233.2 m (764 to 765 ft.). The predicted crest in the St. Norbert area has been raised by 0.9 m (three ft.) to as high as 231 m (759 ft.) due to the expected persistence of ice in the area.
• The flow into the Red River Floodway was measured at 9,100 cubic feet per second (cfs) this morning of a total 55,300 cfs upstream of the floodway inlet.
City of Winnipeg:
• The river level in downtown Winnipeg rose 0.3 m (one ft.) to near 5.8 m (19 ft.) during the 24-hour period ending this morning. The rise in the level is expected to be controlled to near 6.1 m (20 ft.) due to floodway operation. However, with persistence of ice in the floodway channel and in the city until noon tomorrow, it is possible the level in downtown Winnipeg could reach 6.6 m (21.5 ft.). This would be equivalent to about 7 m (23 ft.) in southern portions of the city due to the backwater effect of the unusual combination of ice with high flows. These peak stages include 0.5 m (1.5 ft.) for minor ice jamming which is not uncommon. Properties in the city have been protected to 7.2 m (23.5 ft.), James Avenue equivalent, in most areas and 7.5 m (24.5 ft.) in the south part of the city.
• The first crest in Winnipeg is expected to occur tomorrow, but could occur somewhat later depending on when the ice moves.
• A second crest, resulting from the flow crest coming from Emerson, is expected around April 16 and will be only about 5.5 m (18 ft.). The second crest is lower since ice will be gone and the Red River Floodway will be in full operation. The second crest will be about 2.1 m (7 ft.) lower than it would be without the floodway and other provincial flood control works.
Lockport to Breezy Point:
• Ice has begun to move in some areas near Selkirk but an ice jam remains south of Selkirk. Crests in this portion of the river will depend on the occurrence and severity of ice jams which are unpredictable. Ice is expected to begin actively moving over the next few days. Ice-cutting and breaking activities have reduced the risk of serious ice jams developing and therefore it is unlikely the extreme levels of 2007 and 1996 will be repeated. The Red River rose 0.3 m (one ft.) at Selkirk during the 24-hour period ending this morning.
• The river level at Lockport declined a further 15.25 cm (half a foot) since yesterday as the ice jam south of Selkirk subsided.
Assiniboine River:
• Minor flooding is expected along the Assiniboine River from St. Lazare to Grand Valley next week. Moderate to high flows are expected in the Portage la Prairie area late in April due to high flows from the Souris River.
• Some flooding is expected on Assiniboine tributaries from Brandon to Birtle next week. Run-off in this area was not completed due to cold weather following a heavy March 22 rainstorm.
• The flow on the Assiniboine River at Portage la Prairie was 5,550 cfs this morning, of which 3,780 cfs was diverted into Lake Manitoba. The flow in the river downstream of the Portage Diversion was 1,770 cfs this morning and will be maintained near 1,500 cfs to minimize flows toward Winnipeg.
• The outflow from Shellmouth Reservoir remains at 200 cfs. The water level of Shellmouth Reservoir has risen little so far this spring and with a slow melt reducing run-off, the outflow may be reduced to 50 cfs next Monday.
Souris River:
• The Souris River has risen 15.25 cm (half a foot) at Coulter since yesterday. Over-bank flows have developed in the Coulter area and will develop in areas further north by late next week. A crest of about 0.3 m (one ft.) lower than that of 1999 is still expected several weeks from now.
Other Rivers:
• Minor flooding is still anticipated in the Interlake region next week following snowmelt. The flooding will be similar in magnitude to that of 2007. Some diking is underway at the Peguis First Nation and the community of Fisher River, where ice often causes water to back up and flood low‑lying properties.
• Levels of the Pembina River remain relatively low but will increase next week following the significant snowmelt expected this weekend. Flooding of the Pembina Valley from Rock Lake to La Rivière is anticipated but levels should be lower that those of 2006. No difficulties are expected in the Gretna area. Rock Lake is expected to rise to near 407.5 m (1,337 ft.) this spring.
• The flood potential for the Westlake area is quite low. Minor localized flooding may occur late next week.
• The flood potential remains low from Swan River to The Pas.
Flood Response
• Sand bags and tube dikes have been deployed at approximately 16 properties along St. Peters Road North in the RM of St. Clements to protect against rises caused by ice.
• An ice jam near Stuartburn last night has now moved and water levels have receded. Aquadams have been deployed to the RM of Stuartburn and will be put in place if needed.
• There are reports that eight homes have been flooded in the RM of Coldwell (near Lundar) because of overland flooding.
• The provincial Office of the Fire Commissioner advises people to stay off all rivers and streams. Flows and currents can be unpredictable and objects will be hard to see in flood waters and are serious potential hazard. Boats, kayaks and canoes should not be in the water until waterways return to normal levels.
• Motorists are asked to respect all road closures and use caution in areas where work crews are present. Check highway conditions before travelling at www.manitoba.ca or by calling 204‑945‑3704 or 1-877-627-6237.
• PTH 75 is closed with local traffic only allowed on some sections. The alternate route detour is via PTH 3 and 14. All closures on PTH 75 are signed and marked and detour signs are in place to direct traffic.
• The ring dike on the north side of Morris is closed. A ramp has been constructed on the south side of Morris on PTH 75 and no truck traffic is allowed. Local traffic only is allowed. Preparations to close PTH 23 west of Morris are under consideration.
• The ring dikes are partially closed at Emerson, St. Jean Baptiste, Letellier and Morris.
• The ring dike at St. Adolphe is partially closed with one-lane local access into the town on PR 200. PR 200 is closed with local traffic access only between the floodway and St. Adolphe.
• The St. Jean Baptiste bridge on PR 246 at the Red River remains closed. Traffic has been rerouted in the area. The province is using concrete barriers to protect the bridge against ice and high river flows.
• Two ice cutters have completed their work on the Icelandic River near Riverton.
• Logistical problems are being experienced in deploying the Amphibex machines due to ice conditions. Work is continuing to get the machines working within Winnipeg.
• The province has 37 steamers to thaw frozen culverts and drains across southern Manitoba.
• A live provincial webcam is currently running at the floodway structure and can be found at www.manitoba.ca.
• There are three Flood Liaison Offices in operation. They are open seven days a week from 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. and are located in Winnipeg (945-2354), Morris (204-746-7325) and Brandon (204‑729‑1220).
