Showers are predicted in southwest Manitoba on Sunday and southeast Manitoba on Monday. Rainfall amounts of about 0.4 inch (10 millimetres) are expected. Fast melting is expected this weekend. Most snow and ice should be melted by Sunday.
Further details are provided below and specific forecasted crest stages are shown on the daily flood sheets issued by Manitoba Water Stewardship.
Red River Floodway:
• Floodway operations are continuing to ease water levels in the city. South of the floodway, the river is now near natural levels with ice in place 232.6 metres (763.25 feet), which is still below the predicted crest of 232.9 to 233.2 m (764 to 765 ft.) on April 16.
• Late last night, a major mile-long (1.6-kilometre-long) ice run was anticipated to arrive at the floodway channel, triggering two potential scenarios. This ice could have either been diverted into the channel by the large ice pan at the floodway inlet or it could have caused that ice pan to break up and then the ice run would have moved into Winnipeg. If the ice had moved into and blocked the floodway channel, there was a real and substantial risk the effectiveness of floodway operations could have been reduced by up to 75 per cent. If, instead, the ice had passed through the inlet control structure and into the city, there would have been a substantially increased risk of a serious ice jam within the city of Winnipeg.
• Under either of these two scenarios, emergency conditions could have been experienced within Winnipeg in vulnerable areas in the southern end of the city, particularly in the Kingston Row and Kingston Crescent area, where an ice jam had already raised water levels by 0.46 m. (1.5 ft.). In anticipation of these emergency conditions, Manitoba Water Stewardship was prepared to vary the floodway operating rules in accordance with the floodway’s Environment Act licence to further raise the floodway gates to avoid imminent flooding in Winnipeg, which would have likely raised levels upstream of the floodway inlet to 233.2 m (765 ft.).
• Fortunately, the ice jam was held up at the St. Adolphe area until early this morning. By this time, the ice jam affecting the Kingston Row area had moved 2,000 m (two km) downstream. In addition, while the ice run was substantial, the pieces of ice were generally small enough and floodway flows were large enough to allow the ice to move freely through the channel and the St. Mary’s Road Bridge. As a result, floodway effectiveness has been maintained and an emergency variation of the operating rules was not required.
Emerson to the Floodway Inlet:
• Crests in this portion will be a little higher than those of 2006 and somewhat lower than those of 1979.
• The crest is in the Emerson to Letellier area today and is expected at Morris on Monday and at the Floodway Inlet next Thursday.
• Levels rose three centimetres (0.1 ft.) at Emerson, and 0.2 m (0.65 ft.) at Morris during the 24-hour period ending this morning.
• So far this spring, the Red River had risen 11 m (36.3 ft.) at Emerson and 9.24 m (30.3 ft.) at Morris so far this spring.
Floodway Inlet:
• The level at the Floodway Inlet this morning was 232.6 m (763.25 ft.), a rise of 1.6 m (5.2 ft.) from yesterday morning. A portion of this rise is due to operation of the flood control structure but most if it was from much increased river flows due to upstream ice breaking through and reaching the inlet area. The crest forecast upstream of the control structure remains at 232.9 to 233.2 m (764 to 765 ft.) on April 16. The river has declined 0.4 m (1.4 ft.) in the St. Norbert area and is expected to remain well below that crest for the remainder of this flood.
• The flow into the Red River Floodway this morning was 29,600 cubic feet per second (cfs) of a total 74,000 cfs upstream of the Floodway Inlet.
City of Winnipeg:
• The river level in downtown Winnipeg fell 7.6 cm (0.25 ft.) to near 5.7 m (18.7 ft.) during the 24-hour period ending this morning. The level is expected to remain below 5.9 m (19.5 ft.) due to floodway operation.
• River ice remains in place in the St. Norbert area and from Lyndale Drive to the Chief Peguis Bridge. It is expected the ice will move during the next two days. Levels in the city could briefly rise 0.5 m (1.5 ft.) higher in areas where minor ice jams may develop.
Properties in the city have been protected to 7.16 m (23.5 ft.) (James Avenue equivalent) in most areas and 7.47 m (24.5 ft.) in the south part of the city. River levels in the city could decline by nearly 0.6 m (two ft.) when the ice moves out.
• The first crest in Winnipeg is expected to occur today or tomorrow, but could occur somewhat later if ice does not move by late tomorrow.
• A second crest, resulting from the flow crest coming from Emerson, is expected around April 16 and will be only about 5.5 m (18 ft.). The second crest is lower since ice in the city will be gone and the Red River Floodway will be in full operation. The second crest will be about 2.1 m
(seven ft.) lower than it would be without the floodway and other provincial flood control works.
Lockport to Breezy Point:
• An ice jam upstream of the hydro plant in East Selkirk is now moving. The situation is currently being assessed. Ice-cutting and breaking activities have reduced the risk of serious ice jams developing and therefore it is unlikely the extreme levels of 2007 and 1996 will be repeated.
• The river level rose 0.5 m (1.7 ft.) at Selkirk since yesterday morning but is still about 1.8 m (six ft.) lower than the major crest of 2007. The level rose 0.48 m (1.6 ft.) at Lockport and 0.15 m (0.5 ft.) at Breezy Point.
Assiniboine River:
• Minor flooding has started along the Assiniboine River from St. Lazare to Griswold. Additional rises of 0.6 to 0.9 m (two to three ft.) are expected with crests likely to occur next week. Moderate to high flows are expected in the Portage la Prairie area late this month due to high flows from the Souris River.
• Some flooding is expected on Assiniboine tributaries from Brandon to Birtle next week. Run-off in this area was not completed due to cold weather following a heavy March rainstorm.
• The flow on the Assiniboine River at Portage la Prairie was 5,720 cfs this morning, of which 3,830 cfs was diverted into Lake Manitoba. The flow in the river downstream of the diversion was 1,890 cfs this morning.
• The outflow from Shellmouth Reservoir remains at 200 cfs. The water level of Shellmouth Reservoir has risen little so far this spring and with a slow melt reducing run-off, the outflow may be reduced to 50 cfs next Monday.
Souris River:
• The Souris River rose 0.15 m (0.5 ft.) at Coulter since yesterday. The flow at Westhope increased to 2,000 cfs this morning. Overbank flows have developed in the Coulter area and will develop in areas further north by late next week. A crest of about 0.3 m (one ft.) lower than that of 1999 is still expected several weeks from now.
Other Rivers:
• Minor flooding is still anticipated in the Interlake region next week following snowmelt. The flooding will be similar in magnitude to that of 2007. Some diking is underway at the Peguis First Nation and the community of Fisher River, where ice often causes water to back up and flood low-lying properties.
• Levels of the Pembina River remain relatively low but will increase next week following the significant snowmelt expected this weekend. Flooding of the Pembina Valley from Rock Lake to La Riviere is anticipated but levels should be lower that those of 2006. No difficulties are expected in the Gretna area. Rock Lake is expected to rise to near 407.5 m (1,337 ft.) this spring.
• The flood potential for the Westlake area is quite low. Minor localized flooding may occur late next week.
• The flood potential remains low from Swan River to The Pas.
Flood Response
• Flood-fighting crews are experiencing difficulty working in the flood zone because of sightseers who are getting in the way of equipment and general operations. The public are asked to stay out of the flood area to allow flood fighters to do their work:
• Stay off all rivers and streams as flows and currents can be unpredictable and objects will be hard to see in flood waters and are serious potential hazards. Boats, kayaks and canoes should not be in the water until waterways return to normal levels.
• Motorists must respect road barriers set up to control traffic and find another route. Water levels can change quickly and roads have barriers for a reason. Driving on a closed road is a risk to individuals and is a violation of the law.
• Use extra caution in areas where work crews are present.
• Manitoba Conservation officers and government security will be on PR 200 in the vicinity of the St. Mary’s Road Bridge over the floodway and the control structure inlet to assist Manitoba Infrastructure and Transportation with access control and to keep the public away from work areas.
• Road conditions can change quickly, particularly as the snow melt begins this weekend. Check highway conditions before travelling at www.manitoba.ca or call 204-945-3704 or 1-877-627-6237.
• PTH 75 is closed, allowing for local traffic only on some sections. The alternate route detour is via PTH 3 and PTH 14. All closures on PTH 75 are signed and marked and detour signs are in place to direct traffic.
• The RM of St. Andrews has ordered the evacuation of the Breezy Point community. Road access to the community is cut and emergency services coverage is no longer reliable. Most homes in the community are summer homes, however there are a number of year-round leases in the area. The estimated number of residences affected by the evacuation is 40.
• The RM of Stuartburn has declared a state of local emergency as of 8:15 a.m. today in two townships because ice jams in the Roseau River have pushed water out of the channel. Roads and some private property are being affected and some overland flooding is expected.
• The ring dikes are partially closed at Emerson, Ste. Jean Baptiste, Letellier, Morris and St. Adolphe.
• The province has 37 steamers to thaw frozen culverts and drains across southern Manitoba.
• There are three Flood Liaison Offices in operation. They are open seven days a week from 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. and are located in Winnipeg (945-2354), Morris (204-746-7325) and Brandon (204-729-1220).
