Based on the latest Environment Canada reports, most of southern Manitoba will receive only five millimetres (0.2 inches) of rain or less during the rest of this week. The U.S. portions of the Red and Souris rivers are also expected to receive little rain. Areas from Dauphin to Gypsumville are expected to receive 15 to 20 mm (0.6 to 0.8 in.) of rain from late tomorrow through Friday.
Flood Forecast
• Crests from St. Jean Baptiste to the floodway inlet are now expected to exceed those of 1979 by about 15.25 centimetres (half a foot). This flood may be the second highest on record in the Morris area and the third highest at points north to St. Adolphe. The 1950 crest from St. Agathe to the floodway inlet was about 0.3 metres (one ft.) higher than 1979 and may remain somewhat higher than the 2009 flood in this portion. The 1997 level at St. Agathe was about 0.9 m (three ft.) higher than this year’s expected crest.
• In addition, overland flooding caused by frozen, saturated soils is causing unprecedented flooding in many areas affecting roads and properties that have never flooded before.
• Once rivers have crested, there will be a gradual decline in levels. However, levels will remain high for several weeks, even with favourable weather.
City of Winnipeg:
• The Red River rose 0.55 m (1.8 ft.) in downtown Winnipeg during the 24-hour period ending this morning. This quick rise was mainly a result of rapidly rising flows on streams such as Sturgeon Creek, the La Salle River and other local streams which cannot be controlled. Rising flows on the Assiniboine River and on the Red River south of Winnipeg also contributed to the increase.
• A crest of 6.6 m (21.8 ft.) is now expected for the Red River at James Avenue April 16 to 17 due to higher local flows and higher flows on both the Red and Assiniboine rivers. Assiniboine River flows coming toward Winnipeg will be higher than earlier predicted because of difficulties in diverting sufficient flows at the Portage Diversion which is experiencing heavy ice flows. The crest on the Assiniboine River is expected to occur within a few days of the crest coming from St. Norbert, resulting in a high crest in Winnipeg.
• The river level at James Avenue this morning was 6.4 m (21 ft.).
Lockport to Breezy Point:
• Levels in this portion are at least 0.9 m (three ft.) lower than recent crests resulting from ice jams. Levels are expected to rise about 0.5 m (1.5 ft.) by the time the flow crest arrives this weekend. Some flooding is expected to continue at Petersfield and Breezy Point, but levels will be significantly lower than the recent crest with ice.
Emerson to St. Adolphe:
• Crest forecasts from Morris to St. Adolphe have been raised about 15.25 cm (half a foot) further based on the latest flows and trends. Crest from Emerson to St. Jean Baptiste have been raised less than 15.25 cm (half a foot).
• Crests will be a little later with the crest now expected at Morris on Saturday and at St. Adolphe next Monday.
• Levels rose three cm (0.1 ft.) at Emerson, and 18.3 cm (0.6 ft.) at Morris during the 24-hour period ending this morning.
• Levels in the United States portion declined slightly from Halstad to Grand Forks and remained steady at Drayton during the past 24 hours.
• So far this spring, the Red River has risen 11.2 m (36.7 ft.) at Emerson, 10.1 m (33.1 ft.) at Morris and 9.9 m (32.5 ft.) at the floodway inlet.
Floodway Inlet:
• The water level upstream of the floodway inlet this morning was 233.3 m (765.28 ft.), a rise of 11 cm (0.36 ft.) since yesterday morning. The flow into the Red River Floodway this morning was estimated at 37,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) of a total 87,400 cfs upstream of the floodway inlet.
Assiniboine River:
• Heavy ice flows into the Portage Reservoir (Crescent Lake) overnight resulted in a peak inflow of 27,100 cfs just after midnight of which 18,100 cfs was diverted into Lake Manitoba via the Portage Diversion. Flows were somewhat lower this morning but are still extremely high. The high diversions caused the fail-safe on the diversion to be breached, which the system is designed to do. This minimizes damage to the floodway embankments by localizing the damage.
• A higher proportion of total flows at Portage is being diverted to decrease downstream flows on the river to 5,000 cfs or less but ice was still making this difficult as of early this afternoon.
• Levels of the Assiniboine River from Portage la Prairie to Winnipeg will be rising above flood stage as a result of the high flows at Portage and high local inflows in this portion. Residents are advised to prepare for levels as high as they have encountered during the past 10 years.
• Flooding continues along the Assiniboine River from St. Lazare to Griswold. The crest was just downstream of Miniota this morning. Additional rises of 0.3 to 0.6 m (one to two ft.) are expected in the portion from Virden to Brandon with crests late this week.
• Some flooding may occur on Assiniboine tributaries from Brandon to Birtle later this week.
• The outflow from Shellmouth Reservoir remains at 200 cfs. The water level of Shellmouth Reservoir rose 0.2 m (0.7 ft.) since yesterday morning and stood at 424.45 m (1,392.55 ft.) this morning. The level is expected to rise to 426.7 m (1,400 ft.) by the end of April.
Souris River:
• Levels of the Souris River are beginning to rise more rapidly. Over-bank flows in the Coulter area will spread to areas further north by late next week. A crest exceeding that of 1999 by 0.3 to 0.6 m (one to two ft.) is now expected at the end of April or in early May. Rainfall is predicted for the watershed this Thursday and will be less than previously expected.
Pembina River:
• Levels of the Pembina River are rising quite rapidly and the anticipated flooding of the Pembina Valley is now underway. It appears that levels will rise close to those observed in 2006. Rock Lake is expected to rise to 407.8 m (1,338 ft.) by this weekend.
• Levels have risen rapidly in the North Dakota portion from Walhalla to Neche in recent days. A level of 6.4 m (21 ft.) is predicted at Neche, which is less than 0.3 m (one ft.) lower than that of 2006. Actions have been taken to protect Gretna from possible overflows. Overtopping of the boundary road east of Gretna is unlikely, but heavy culvert flows are expected into Manitoba.
Other Rivers:
• The Icelandic and Fisher rivers have risen rapidly during the past few days and are expected to crest later this week. The crest of the Fisher River is expected to be somewhat lower than those of 2006, but significant flooding of low portions of the river will occur for the rest of this week. Diking is underway at Peguis Reserve. Some flooding is expected in low-lying areas of the Icelandic River until ice has moved out.
• The flood potential for the Westlake area is quite low. Minor localized flooding may occur late next week.
• The flood potential remains low from Swan River to The Pas.
Overland Flooding
• Overland flooding continues in many portions of southern Manitoba, especially in the Red River Valley and the Interlake and this will continue through the coming weekend. Flash flooding such as that which occurred recently could develop in other low-lying areas. Residents in low-lying areas are advised to take precautions against possible sudden rises.
• The provincial government has taken action to minimize overland flooding by steaming frozen culverts and opening blocked drains.
• Further details are provided below and specific forecasted crest stages are shown on the daily flood sheets issued by Manitoba Water Stewardship.
Flood Response
• Water levels in Balmoral are receding after a sharp and rapid rise from Jackfish Creek yesterday. The municipality has experienced many road washouts and 12 homes in Balmoral have been affected by flooding. Residents from two of the homes had to evacuate and are staying with family and friends.
• Sandbagging is occurring in the town of Warren (RM of Woodlands) and also in the Silver area (RM of Armstrong).
• In the RM of St. Clements, overland flooding continues to be a problem and pumps are saving about 30 homes at the Pine Ridge Trailer Park.
• Sandbagging and water tube installations continue in West St. Paul. Water levels are high and overland flooding continues to have significant impact. No volunteers are currently needed in the area.
• The sewage lagoon at Riverton has overflowed its banks due to meltwater and a partial discharge of almost fully treated water has been permitted. Manitoba Conservation staff are reviewing the sewage lagoon situation.
• Super sandbags are being installed today at Melita along PTH 3 as the Souris River begins to rise.
• Ring dike levels in the valley have been raised at Emerson, Letellier, St. Jean Baptiste, Morris, St. Adolphe and Ste. Agathe. Partial ring dike closures are now underway at Rosenort, Aubigny and Riverside. Closures at other ring dikes are being carefully monitored and assessed on an ongoing basis.
• Morris has issued a voluntary evacuation notice to the residents in the community of Riverside and most of the residents have evacuated.
• PTH 75 from Morris to St. Jean Baptiste is closed and inaccessible to emergency vehicles.
• Road closures in the Interlake area are occurring as a result of overland flooding and rising creeks and streams. Caution is advised on PTH 6 near St. Laurent because of water on the road which is signed and marked with flag people in attendance.
• Trailers and flood-tube equipment are being sent to Peguis First Nation and Fisher River First Nation today to assist with flood response preparations.
• There are a number of roads washed out in the province, particularly in the RM of Rockwood in the Interlake. Closed barricade signs must be respected and motorists are advised to drive with extreme caution. Unusual conditions this year are causing overland flooding in areas where it has not been experienced before.
• Road conditions are changing quickly. Check highway conditions before travelling at www.manitoba.ca or call 204-945-3704 or 1-877-627-6237 (toll-free).
• The Manitoba government is proceeding with provincial disaster financial assistance (DFA) for damage from this year’s spring flooding. DFA is generally available for basic and essential costs. Individuals are encouraged to first seek assistance through individual insurance claims. More information is available at www.manitoba.ca
• The province has 37 steamers to thaw frozen culverts and drains across southern Manitoba.
• There are three Flood Liaison Offices in operation. They are open seven days a week from 7 a.m. to 9 p.m. and are located in Winnipeg (945-2354), Morris (204-746-7325) and Brandon (204-729-1220).
Evacuations
• The Manitoba Association of Native Fire Fighters has helped move 14 people from Peguis First Nation to Gimli and may evacuate another 14 individuals today.
• Residents of approximately 10 homes around Rock Lake have decided to voluntarily leave their homes.
• In the RM of St. Clements, residents returned to their homes last night. The homes were affected by ice jams pushing water levels up along St. Peters Road North and Peltz Road. Re-entering homeowners were accompanied by a Manitoba Hydro employee and a building inspector to ensure properties were safe. Staff from the Manitoba Emergency Measures Organization disaster financial assistance program will visit the area today. There is still some concern with five to six homes which will be re-inspected today.
• All evacuees are strongly urged to register with the Red Cross registration phone line at 1-888-662-3211 which operates from 9 a.m. to 8 p.m. This will help connect people with their municipalities and other information about the flood.
