The weather forecast calls for 10 to 15 millimetres (0.4 to 0.6 inches) of rain over the U.S. portion of the Red River watershed Thursday to Saturday. Precipitation over southern Manitoba is expected to be less than five mm (0.2 in.) with a possible 10 mm (0.4 in.) near the U.S. boundary. Moderate south winds are predicted over the Red River Valley for Wednesday afternoon followed by moderate northwest winds Thursday afternoon.
City of Winnipeg:
• The Red River level at James Avenue in Winnipeg this morning was 6.3 metres (20.83 feet), a decline of 3.7 centimetres (1.5 in.) from yesterday morning. The very gradual decline is a result of decreased flows on the Assiniboine River and on local streams. A gradual decline will continue for the rest of this week.
• Even with favourable weather, the decline of river levels in Winnipeg will be gradual for the next few weeks due to the need to gradually lower the gates on the floodway control structure.
• The Red River watershed is saturated at this time so river levels could change quickly if significant rainfall were to develop in coming weeks. Another crest is quite possible if heavy rain develops during the next three weeks.
• The crest of 6.9 m (22.5 ft.) at James Avenue in Winnipeg was the second highest since major flood control works began operation in 1969. The crest was 7.5 m (24.5 ft.) in 1997.
Lockport to Breezy Point:
• Levels in this portion will continue to decline very slowly for the rest of this week. Levels from Lockport to Breezy Point have declined about 3 cm (1.2 in.) since yesterday morning.
Emerson to St. Adolphe:
• Levels declined three cm (1.2 in.) or less from Emerson to St. Jean Baptiste and from St. Adolphe to the floodway inlet during the 24-hour period ending this morning. Levels were unchanged at Morris and St. Agathe.
• River levels will decline very slowly for most of this week and will begin to decline faster by the weekend and next week.
• Residents and flood fighters in the flooded area are reminded that strong winds and wave action can raise water levels by 0.3 m (one ft.) or more and wave action can erode dikes. Vigilance with respect to wind is recommended until levels have declined substantially. Windy conditions are expected Wednesday and Thursday.
• Levels in the United States portion are continuing to decline slowly.
• The Red River has risen 10.4 m (34.2 ft.) at Morris so far this spring.
Floodway Inlet:
• The water level upstream of the floodway inlet this morning was 233.7 m (766.63 ft.), a decline of 1.2 cm (0.5 in.) since yesterday morning. The flow into the Red River Floodway this morning was estimated at 41,900 cubic feet per second (cfs) of a total 97,000 cfs upstream of the floodway inlet.
Assiniboine River:
• The flow into the Portage Reservoir declined from 15,170 cfs yesterday morning to 14,200 cfs this morning. A gradual decline is expected to continue for the next five days. The flow in the Portage Diversion this morning was 13,900 cfs and the flow in the river downstream was 520 cfs. River flows toward Winnipeg will be increased once levels in the city of Winnipeg are below flood stage.
• Assiniboine River levels from Baie St. Paul to Winnipeg will continue to decline for most of this week, but not as rapidly as before.
• Flooding continues along the Assiniboine River from Virden to Brandon, although crests have occurred. Valley flooding should end within a week or so if there is little rain but it will take additional weeks for water to drain from the valley floor. Levels from Virden to Grand Valley would be at least 0.6 m (two ft.) higher at this time without the operation of the Shellmouth Dam.
• The outflow from Shellmouth Reservoir remains at 50 cfs. The reservoir water level has risen 0.18 m (.6 ft.) since yesterday and stood at 426 m (1,397.4 ft.) this morning. The level is expected to rise to at least 427.2 m (1,401.5 ft.) by the end of April. The normal summer level is 427.5 m (1,402.5 ft.).
Souris River:
• Levels of the Souris River in Manitoba are beginning to rise more rapidly in the Coulter area. Over-bank flows are still limited to the Coulter area but will spread to areas further north by late next week.
• The crest forecast for the Souris River has been decreased by 0.3 m (one ft.) based on the latest flow projections at the international border issued by the U.S. National Weather Service. Crests in the Manitoba portion will be similar to those of 1999.
• The duration of flooding on the Souris River should be much shorter than in 1999 when it lasted until June, unless unusually heavy rain develops as in 1999.
Pembina River:
• Flooding of the entire Pembina Valley continues but levels are declining at all points.
• The crest passed Windygates yesterday at a flow of about 16,000 cfs which exceeded the crest of 2006 by about 2,000 cfs.
• Sandbagging efforts at Holiday Mountain Resort were successful and prevented damages to buildings.
• Crests from Rock Lake to La Rivière have been similar to those of 1974, which was among the largest flood in recent decades.
• Rock Lake has declined 9.1 cm (3.6 in.) since yesterday and was at 407.6 m (1,337.6 ft.) this morning. This crest three days ago was among the highest on record.
• The level of Pelican Lake was 412.4 m (1,353.17 ft.) yesterday and has declined in recent days due to operation of the outlet control works. The discharge in the outlet channel was 425 cfs this morning.
• The U.S. National Weather Service has reported another significant crest at Walhalla early today due to yesterday’s crest at Windygates. However, it has been predicting only a minor rise of three cm (1.2 in.) to 6.6 m (21.6 ft.) at Neche on April 22 to 23, which is six cm (2.4 in.) higher than that of 2006. The latest trend in levels suggests that the crest may be near 6.6 m (21.7 ft.). Based on this, there would be some border overflow late Wednesday when moderate south winds are expected.
• Manitoba Water Stewardship and Manitoba Infrastructure and Transportation staff are closely monitoring possible overflows at the international border. Actions have been taken to protect Gretna and Halbstadt from possible flooding due to overflows.
Other Rivers:
• Both the Fisher River and the Icelandic River have crested, but levels remain high and flooding continues at the Peguis First Nation.
• Extensive overland flooding continues in the Interlake region with many roads overtopped or washed out. Conditions will begin to improve later this week if the weather is favourable, but some flooding will continue for several weeks.
• All tributaries of the Red River had crested as of this morning.
• The flood potential for the Westlake area is quite low. Minor localized flooding may occur late next week.
• The flood potential remains low from Swan River to The Pas.
Overland Flooding
• Overland flooding continues in many portions of southern Manitoba, especially in the Red River Valley and the Interlake, but is expected to gradually subside this week based on favourable weather. Flooding could quickly increase if significant rainfall were to develop. Residents in low‑lying areas are advised to take precautions against possible sudden rises.
• Further details are provided below and specific forecasted crest stages are shown on the daily flood sheets issued by Manitoba Water Stewardship.
Flood Response
• A sandbag dike along PTH 3 at Melita is expected to be completed later today or early tomorrow. Work to improve the earthen community ring dike is proceeding well. A sandbagging machine has also been sent to Melita.
• Ring dikes in the Red River valley are being carefully monitored, particularly as winds can cause wave action against the dikes.
• Overland flooding is continuing in the Interlake area. To date, it’s estimated that approximately 296 homes at Peguis First Nation have been affected. Sandbagging is continuing to protect 40 homes and road access is limited. The province provided Peguis with a trailer equipped with 30 Tiger dams and five Aquadams. Fisher River received a trailer with 60 Tiger dams and an excavator. Steamers were deployed to both communities to help thaw frozen culverts and drains.
• Provincial disaster financial assistance is being doubled, allowing a homeowner to claim eligible costs up to $200,000 or the assessed value of their home.
• To date, the total number of registered evacuees is 2,355. Approximately 1,089 people have registered with the Red Cross. Indian and Northern Affairs Canada reports 1,266 First Nations people have registered with the Manitoba Association of Native Fire Fighters. This number does not include people who have voluntarily left their homes and not registered.
• A substantial number of provincial highways and roads have been affected by flooding. Road conditions are changing quickly. Check highway conditions before travelling at www.manitoba.ca or call 204-945-3704 or 1-877-627-6237.
Well Water Caution – Province Will Cover Costs of Testing
• Residents in areas affected by flooding who are using well water are advised to boil all well water before consuming it or to use a safe alternative such as bottled water until test results confirm the bacterial safety of the water. Well-water sampling should occur after flooding has subsided. The province normally covers 70 per cent of such bacterial water testing but, under the current circumstances, well owners’ 30 per cent share is being waived for the flooded areas for a period of up to three months after flood waters recede.
