Rain and snow with 10 to 15 millimetres (0.4 to 0.6 inches) of precipitation are still expected over the U.S. portion of the Red River watershed tomorrow evening to Saturday morning. Precipitation over southern Manitoba is expected to be less than five mm (0.2 in.) with a possible 10 mm (0.4 in.) near the U.S. border. Moderate to strong south winds are predicted over southern Manitoba this evening through tomorrow morning followed by moderate northerly winds tomorrow afternoon through Friday.
City of Winnipeg:
• The Red River level at James Avenue in Winnipeg this morning was 6.2 metres (20.45 feet), a decline of 4.6 centimetres (1.8 in.) from yesterday morning. The decline was mainly due to further decreases in flows on the Assiniboine River and on local streams. The computed natural level for this morning (without flood control works) was 9.8 m (32.1 ft.).
• The decline of river levels in Winnipeg will be gradual for the next few weeks, even with favourable weather, due to the need to gradually lower the gates on the floodway control structure at St. Norbert. The gates must be lowered gradually since natural river levels at the floodway inlet will be declining slowly and controlled levels must remain just below the natural levels.
• The Red River watershed is saturated at this time and, as a result, river levels would quickly respond if significant rainfall were to develop in coming weeks. Another crest is possible if heavy rain develops during the next few weeks. However, with dry weather predicted for the Manitoba portion for at least another five days, further rises due to possible rain are becoming less likely.
• The crest of 6.9 m (22.5 ft.) at James Avenue in Winnipeg was the second highest since major flood control works began operation in 1969. The crest was 7.5 m (24.5 ft.) in 1997. Today’s level at James Avenue is the same as the 2006 crest which, up to this flood, had been the second‑highest crest since floodway operations began in 1969.
Emerson to St. Adolphe:
• Levels remained virtually unchanged at Letellier, St. Jean Baptiste and St. Adolphe since yesterday morning. The level declined six cm (2.4 in.) at Emerson and less than three cm (1.2 in.) at other locations.
• River levels will decline very slowly for the rest of this week but will start to decline more significantly next week.
• Levels could fluctuate significantly during the next few days due to wind which could cause temporary rises of up to 0.3 m (one ft.) in some locations and similar declines in other locations, depending on exposure.
• Strong winds and wave action can erode dikes and closures. Vigilance with respect to wind is recommended from tonight through the weekend.
• Levels in the United States portion are beginning to decline a little more rapidly with a 15.2 cm (0.5 ft.) drop at Grand Forks since yesterday morning.
Floodway Inlet:
• The water level upstream of the floodway inlet this morning was 233.6 m (766.53 ft.), a decline of 2.4 cm (one in.) since yesterday morning. The flow into the Red River Floodway this morning was 42,200 cubic feet per second (cfs) of a total 97,600 cfs upstream of the floodway inlet.
• The natural crest at the floodway inlet occurred yesterday at 233.8 m (766.96 ft.).
Lockport to Breezy Point:
• Levels in this portion will continue to decline very slowly for the rest of this week. Levels from Lockport to Breezy Point have declined about six cm (2.4 in.) since yesterday morning.
Assiniboine River:
• Flow into the Portage Reservoir declined from 14,000 cfs yesterday morning to 13,660 cfs this morning. A gradual decline is expected to continue for the next five days. The flow in the Portage Diversion this morning was 13,150 cfs and the flow in the river downstream was 500 cfs. River flows toward Winnipeg will be increased once levels in the city of Winnipeg are below flood stage.
• Assiniboine River levels from Baie St. Paul to Winnipeg will continue to decline slowly for the rest of this week.
• Flooding continues along the Assiniboine River from Griswold to Brandon, although levels are declining slowly. Valley flooding should end by early next week.
• The outflow from the Shellmouth Reservoir remains at 50 cfs. The reservoir water level has risen 16.8 cm (0.55 ft.) since yesterday and stood at 426.3 m (1,398.55 ft.) this morning. The level is expected to rise close to the normal summer level of 427.5 m (1,402.5 ft.) by early May.
Souris River:
• The Souris River continues to rise, with a level of 428.9 m (1,407.1 ft.) at Melita this morning. An additional rise of about 0.76 m (2.5 ft.) is expected before the river crests at Melita late this month.
• Significant over-bank flooding is underway from the U.S. boundary to just south of Melita. Minor over-bank flows will develop in areas from Melita to Souris by the middle of next week.
• Crests in the Manitoba portion will be similar to those of 1999.
• The duration of flooding on the Souris River should be much shorter than in 1999 unless unusually heavy rain develops as it did in 1999. Flooding that year extended into June.
Pembina River:
• Flooding of the entire Pembina Valley continues but levels are declining at all points.
• The level declined a further 0.15 m (0.5 ft.) at La Rivière during the 24-hour period ending this morning.
• Crests from Rock Lake to La Rivière have been similar to those of 1974, which was among the largest flood in recent decades.
• Rock Lake declined another 7.6 cm (0.25 ft.) since yesterday and was at 407.5 m (1,337.1 ft.) this morning.
• The level of Pelican Lake is near 412.4 m (1,353 ft.) and continues to decline due to operation of the outlet control works.
• The U.S. National Weather Service and the U.S. Geological Service indicate the level of the Pembina River at Neche has declined by nearly three cm (1.2 in.) since yesterday. No further rise is expected on the river.
• Water levels just south of the international border in the vicinity of Gretna are likely to rise this evening due to strong south winds. Minor border overflows may occur tonight and overnight. Manitoba Water Stewardship and Manitoba Infrastructure and Transportation staff will be monitoring the situation closely.
• If necessary, actions will be taken to protect Gretna and low-lying properties at Halbstadt.
Other Rivers:
• Both the Fisher and Icelandic rivers have crested but levels remain high and some flooding continues at Peguis First Nation.
• Extensive overland flooding continues in the Interlake region with many roads overtopped or washed out. Conditions will begin to improve later this week if the weather is favourable, but some flooding will continue for several weeks.
Lakes:
• Many lakes such as lakes Winnipeg, Manitoba and Dauphin are still ice covered. Some smaller lakes, such as Pelican Lake, are partially ice covered. Ice is expected to break up during the next 10 days or so. Strong winds may cause ice to push up the shoreline in areas with shallow ground slopes such as at beaches.
• Ice pushed up on shorelines by strong winds can cause significant damage and pose a risk to low‑lying cottages. Those who have experienced such difficulties in the past are advised to take whatever precautions may be feasible such as moving valuables to higher ground.
Overland Flooding
• Overland flooding continues in many portions of southern Manitoba, especially in the Red River Valley and the Interlake, but is expected to gradually subside this week based on favourable weather. Flooding could quickly increase if significant rainfall were to develop. Residents in low‑lying areas are advised to take precautions against possible sudden rises.
• Further details are provided below and specific forecasted crest stages are shown on the daily flood sheets issued by Manitoba Water Stewardship.
Flood Response
• The Office of the Fire Commissioner is moving a mobile command post to the west side of the province in preparation for potential flooding along the Souris River. A water-rescue team will stay in Morris and support local water-rescue services until flood waters begin to recede.
• Yesterday, 16 families applied for disaster financial assistance (DFA) at the temporary office in Selkirk set up by the Manitoba Emergency Measures Organization (EMO). EMO staff are available to assist residents of flood-damaged areas until Friday at the Selkirk Civic Centre, 200 Eaton Ave. and will provide information and applications for DFA from 11 a.m. to 7 p.m.
• The Flood Liaison Offices in Winnipeg, Morris and Brandon will reduce their hours of operation to 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m., beginning Friday. The offices have handled over 1,500 calls since they were established. The offices are located in Winnipeg (945-2354), Morris (204-746-7325) and Brandon (204-729-1220). After-hours flood emergencies should be directed to local municipal offices.
• Municipal emergency co-ordination centres along the Red River valley are beginning to wind down their operations as the flood waters slowly recede.
• A sandbag dike along PTH 3 at Melita is completed and the earthen ring dike is near completion.
• In the Interlake, work has started to restore road crossings damaged by overland flooding and the dike between Riverton and Arborg is being monitored.
• Ring dikes in the Red River Valley are being carefully monitored, particularly as winds can push waves against the dikes.
• Most of the evacuated residents from the Roseau River and Fisher River First Nations have returned home. Approximately 785 residents of Peguis First Nation remain evacuated from their community.
• Road conditions are changing quickly. Check highway conditions before travelling at www.manitoba.ca, 204-945-3704 or 1-877-627-6237.
