Rain and snow with 10 to 15 millimetres (0.4 to 0.6 inches) of total precipitation is still expected over the U.S. portion of the Red River watershed from tonight to Saturday morning. Precipitation over southern Manitoba is expected to be less than five mm (0.2 in.), with a possible 10 mm (0.4 in.) near the U.S. boundary. Moderate north winds are expected today and Friday.
City of Winnipeg:
• The Red River level at James Avenue in Winnipeg this morning was 6.2 metres (20.27 feet), a decline of 5.5 centimetres (2.2 in.) from yesterday morning. The decline was mainly because of further decreases in flows on the Assiniboine River and on local streams. The computed natural level for this morning (without flood control works) is 9.8 m (32 ft.).
• The decline of river levels in Winnipeg will be gradual for the next few weeks even with favourable weather due to the need to gradually lower the gates on the floodway control structure at St. Norbert. The gates must be lowered gradually since natural river levels at the floodway inlet will be declining slowly and controlled levels must remain just below the natural levels.
• The Red River watershed is saturated at this time and thus river levels would quickly respond if significant rainfall were to develop in coming weeks. Another crest is possible if heavy rain develops during the next few weeks but this likelihood is diminishing.
• The crest of 6.9 m (22.5 ft.) at James Avenue in Winnipeg was the second highest since major flood control works began operation in 1969. The crest was 7.5 m (24.5 ft.) in 1997.
Emerson to St. Adolphe:
• Levels have declined about six cm (2.4 in.) at Letellier and St. Jean Baptiste and about three cm (1.2 in.) at other locations.
• River levels will decline very slowly for the rest this week but will decline more significantly next week.
• Levels could fluctuate significantly during the next few days due to wind, which could cause temporary rises of up to 0.3 m (one ft.) in some locations with wave action included.
• Strong winds and wave action can erode dikes and the clay closures. Special vigilance with respect to wind is recommended for the next few days.
• Levels in the United States portion are beginning to decline a little more rapidly with a 0.15 m (0.5 ft.) drop at Grand Forks since yesterday morning.
Floodway Inlet:
• The water level upstream of the floodway inlet this morning was 233.6 m (766.47 ft.), a decline of 1.9 cm (0.75 in.) since yesterday morning. The flow into the Red River Floodway this morning was 42,100 cubic feet per second (cfs) of a total 97,900 cfs upstream of the floodway inlet.
Lockport to Breezy Point:
• Levels in this portion continue to decline very slowly for the next week or so. Levels from Lockport to Breezy Point have declined about six cm (2.4 in.) since yesterday morning.
Assiniboine River:
• Flow into the Portage Reservoir declined from 13,660 cfs yesterday morning to 13,470 cfs this morning. A gradual decline is expected to continue for the next five days. The flow in the Portage Diversion this morning was 12,970 cfs and the flow in the river downstream was 500 cfs. River flows toward Winnipeg will be increased once levels in the city of Winnipeg are below the flood stage of 5.5 m (18 ft.) at James Avenue.
• Assiniboine River levels from Baie St. Paul to Winnipeg will continue to decline slowly for the rest of this week.
• Flooding continues along the Assiniboine River from Griswold to Brandon. However, levels continue to decline and flooding should end by early next week.
• The outflow from the Shellmouth Reservoir remains at 50 cfs. The reservoir water level has risen 15.2 cm (0.5 ft.) since yesterday and stood at 426.4 m (1,399.1 ft.) this morning. The level is expected to rise close to the normal summer level of 427.5 m (1,402.5 ft.) by early May.
Souris River:
• The Souris River continues to rise with a level of 428.95 m (1,407.33 ft.) at Melita this morning.
• Crest forecasts have been reduced 0.3 m (one ft.) more based on updated flow projections for Westhope, N. D., issued by the U.S. National Weather Service.
• Crests at Coulter, Melita and Hartney will be about 0.3 m (one ft.) lower than that of 1999, whereas crests from Souris to Wawanesa will be at least 0.6 m (two ft.) lower than in 1999.
• Significant over-bank flooding is underway from the U.S. boundary to just south of Melita. Minor over-bank flows will develop in areas from Melita to Hartney by the middle of next week. Over-bank flows are no longer expected from Souris to Wawanesa.
• The duration of flooding on the Souris River should be much shorter than in 1999 unless unusually heavy rain develops as it did in 1999 when flooding lasted until June.
Pembina River:
• Flooding of the entire Pembina Valley continues but levels are declining at all points.
• The level declined 12.2 cm (4.8 in.) at La Rivière during the 24-hour period ending this morning.
• Crests from Rock Lake to La Rivière have been similar to those of 1974, which was among the largest floods in recent decades.
• Rock Lake had declined to 407.5 m (1,336.9 ft.) as of this morning.
• The level of Pelican Lake was measured at 412.4 m (1,353.15 ft.) near noon yesterday. Outlet control works continue to be operated at the maximum outflow possible to reduce the lake level.
• The Pembina River at Neche has declined by nearly three cm (1.2 in.) since yesterday and will continue to decline slowly.
• There were no overflows at the international border last night since south winds were not as strong as predicted. With winds shifting to the north for the next few days, overflows are highly unlikely this spring.
• There is no longer a significant flood threat for Gretna and Halbstadt.
Other Rivers:
• Both the Fisher and Icelandic rivers have crested but levels remain high and some flooding continues at the Peguis First Nation. The level of the Fisher River has declined by over one metre (3.2 ft.) during the last three days.
• Extensive overland flooding continues in the Interlake region with many roads overtopped or washed out. However, conditions have stabilized and are beginning to slowly improve in many areas. Flooding could easily be prolonged or increased if significant precipitation were to develop during the next few weeks.
Lakes:
• Many lakes such as Lake Winnipeg, Lake Manitoba and Dauphin Lake are still ice covered. Some smaller lakes such as Pelican Lake are partially ice covered. Ice is expected to break up during the next 10 days or so. Strong winds may cause ice to push up the shoreline in areas with shallow ground slopes, such as at beaches.
• Ice pushed up shorelines by strong winds can cause significant damage and pose a risk to low lying cottages. Those who have experienced such difficulties before are advised to take whatever precautions may be feasible, such as moving valuables to higher ground.
Overland Flooding
• Overland flooding continues in many portions of southern Manitoba, especially in the Red River Valley and the Interlake but is subsiding in most areas and should end next week if dry weather continues. Flooding could quickly increase if significant rainfall were to develop. Residents in low-lying areas are advised to take precautions against possible sudden rises.
• Further details are provided below and specific forecasted crest stages are shown on the daily flood sheets issued by Manitoba Water Stewardship.
Flood Response
• PTH 75 is still closed because of high waters. Parts of I-29 in the U.S. still have water on the road. In 1997, PTH 75 was closed for 44 days and in 2006, it was closed for 18 days. Opening of the highway this year will depend on how long it takes flood waters to recede. With favourable weather, the highway could be open early to mid-May. The highway was closed on April 7 this year.
• To date, 2,612 people have been evacuated from their homes. In 1997, 28,300 Manitobans were evacuated from their homes, primarily from the Red River Valley.
• So far, the province has deployed approximately 300 provincial staff, 280 pieces of heavy equipment, 37 steamers and 1,960 flood tubes for the flood response.
• Ring dikes in the Red River Valley are being carefully monitored, particularly as winds can push waves against the dikes.
• Road conditions are changing quickly. Check highway conditions before travelling at www.manitoba.ca or call 204-945-3704 or 1-877-627-6237.
• The Flood Liaison Offices will reduce their hours of operation to 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. beginning tomorrow. The offices have handled over 1,500 calls since they were established. They are located in Winnipeg (945-2354), Morris (204-746-7325) and Brandon (204-729-1220). Manitoba Water Stewardship also has a general inquires line at 1-866-626-4862. After-hours flood emergencies should be directed to local municipal offices.
Crop Seeding Delayed
• Flood conditions may result in delays in seeding crops in flooded areas. The delays may also result in changes to crop choices, with some producers selecting crops that mature faster to accommodate a shorter growing season.
• The length of seeding delays will be determined by how much water is on fields, how fast the water drains and soil-drying conditions in the next few weeks.
• Farmers in Manitoba are well equipped to deal with excess moisture and flooded acres. In 1997, the flood subsided early enough that there was generally no effect on crop yields. The effects of the 1997 flood occurred much later than this 2009 flood.
• Manitoba Agriculture, Food and Rural Initiatives has put together a series of fact sheets dealing with crop production under conditions of excess moisture. Some of the topics include countering the effects of late planting, soil fertility considerations, management of diseases, weeds, and insects under wet conditions, and dealing with farm equipment and pesticide containers that may have been flooded. This information is available at GO offices.
• Requests for assistance with pets, livestock or hobby farm animals can be made to the Animal Care Line, 204-945-8000, which is maintained by the Office of the Chief Veterinarian.
