About 10 millimetres (0.4 inches) of precipitation is expected over the U.S. portion of the Red River watershed today with an additional 10 mm (0.4 in.) likely Sunday to Monday. Precipitation over southern Manitoba is expected to be less than five mm (0.2 in.). Northerly winds at 25 kilometres per hour are occurring over the Red River Valley today and will become light this evening and south 20 km/h tomorrow.
City of Winnipeg:
• The Red River level at James Avenue in Winnipeg this morning was six metres (19.99 feet), a decline of 8.5 centimetres (3.4 in.) from yesterday morning. The decline was mainly due to further decreases in flows on the Assiniboine River and on local streams. The computed natural level for this morning (without flood control works) was 9.6 m (31.6 ft.).
• The decline of river levels in Winnipeg will be gradual for the next few weeks, even with favourable weather, due to the need to gradually lower the gates on the floodway control structure at St. Norbert. The gates must be lowered gradually since natural river levels at the floodway inlet will be declining slowly and controlled levels must remain just below the natural levels.
• With favourable weather, the level at James Avenue in downtown Winnipeg should decline to 5.5 m (18 ft.) by May 2 and to 4.3 m (14 ft.) by May 20.
• The crest of 6.9 m (22.5 ft.) at James Avenue in Winnipeg was the second highest since major flood control works began operation in 1969. The crest was 7.5 m (24.5 ft.) in 1997.
• Manitoba Water Stewardship has calculated the natural peak discharge of the 2009 spring flood at 126,000 cubic feet per second at James Avenue, making the current flood the second largest in over 150 years.
Emerson to St. Adolphe:
• River levels have fluctuated during the past 24 hours due to significant wind effects. The level declined about 7.6 cm (three in.) at Emerson and St. Adolphe and 4.6 cm (1.8 in.) at Morris, but rose three cm (1.2 in.) at Letellier.
• Strong winds and wave action can cause river levels at Letellier, Morris and Brunkild to fluctuate by 0.3 m (one ft.) or more. Wave action can erode dikes and closures. Vigilance should be increased when strong winds are predicted.
• River levels will decline very slowly for the rest this week, but will drop more significantly next week.
• With favourable weather, the level at Morris is expected to decline to the PTH 75 elevation of 236.2 m (775 ft.) by mid-May. The water will need to recede and a road condition inspection conducted before the highway can reopen.
• The Red River at Grand Forks continues to decline 15.2 cm (0.5 ft.) per day.
Floodway Inlet:
• The water level upstream of the floodway inlet this morning was 233.6 m (766.22 ft.), a decline of 7.6 cm (three in.) since yesterday morning. The flow into the Red River Floodway this morning was 41,400 cubic feet per second (cfs) of a total 97,000 cfs south of the floodway inlet.
Lockport to Breezy Point:
• Levels in this portion will continue to decline very slowly for the next week or so. Levels declined 9.1 cm (3.6 in.) at Lockport, 4.6 cm (1.8 in.) at Selkirk since yesterday morning. Due to a north wind, there was no change at Breezy Point.
Assiniboine River:
• Flow into the Portage Reservoir declined from 13,470 cfs yesterday morning to 13,350 cfs this morning. A gradual decline is expected to continue for the next five days. The flow into the Portage Diversion this morning was 12,805 cfs and the flow in the river downstream was 545 cfs. River flows toward Winnipeg will be gradually increased once levels at James Avenue in Winnipeg are below 5.5 m (18 ft.).
• Assiniboine River levels from Baie St. Paul to Winnipeg will continue to decline slowly for the rest of this week.
• River levels are now declining rapidly in the Griswold to Brandon area with a decline of 0.46 m (1.5 ft.) at Griswold since yesterday morning. The river is within its banks at Griswold and will be below flood stage at Curran Park in Brandon by tomorrow.
• The outflow from the Shellmouth Reservoir remains at 50 cfs. The reservoir water level has risen 13.1 cm (5.2 in.) since yesterday and stood at 426.6 m (1,399.5 ft.) this morning. The level is expected to rise close to the normal summer level of 427.5 m (1,402.5 ft.) by early May.
Souris River:
• The Souris River continues to rise, but the increases in Coulter and Melita are very gradual as the crest nears. The level was 429.98 m (1,407.43 ft.) at Melita this morning, a rise of three cm (1.2 in.).
• Crest forecasts were reduced 0.3 m (one ft.) more yesterday based on updated flow projections for Westhope, N.D., issued by the U.S. National Weather Service. With continued favourable weather, crests in Manitoba may be even lower than indicated yesterday.
• Crests at Coulter, Melita and Hartney will be about 0.6 m (two ft.) lower than those of 1999, whereas crests from Souris to Wawanesa will be close to 0.9 m (three ft.) lower than in 1999.
• Significant over-bank flooding is underway from the U.S. border to just south of Melita. The river is expected to remain within its banks at points from just north of Melita to Wawanesa.
• The duration of flooding in the Coulter area should be much shorter than in 1999 unless unusually heavy rain develops as occurred in 1999 when flooding lasted into June.
Pembina River:
• Flooding of the entire Pembina Valley continues but levels are declining at all points.
• The level declined 10.7 cm (4.2 in.) at La Rivière during the 24-hour period ending this morning.
• Crests from Rock Lake to La Rivière have been similar to those of 1974, which was among the largest floods in recent decades.
• Rock Lake had declined to 407.4 m (1,336.75 ft.) as of this morning. By Sunday, it will have declined 0.91 m (three ft.) from the crest and will no longer be a significant concern.
• The level of Pelican Lake was 412.4 m (1,352.9 ft.) yesterday evening. The outlet control works continue to be operated at the maximum outflow possible (425 cfs today) to reduce the lake to its desirable level of 412 m (1,351.7 ft.).
• The Pembina River at Neche has declined another three cm (1.2 in.) since yesterday and will continue to decline slowly. There is no longer a concern about border overflows or flooding at Gretna or Halbstadt.
Other Rivers:
• Both the Fisher and Icelandic rivers have crested but levels remain high and some flooding continues at the Peguis First Nation. The level of the Fisher River has declined 1.1 m (3.5 ft.) during the last four days and has declined 9.1 cm (3.6 in.) since yesterday morning.
• Overland flooding continues in the Interlake region but is generally subsiding. Flooding could easily be prolonged or increased if significant precipitation were to develop during the next few weeks.
Lakes:
• Many lakes such as Lake Winnipeg, Lake Manitoba and Dauphin Lake are still ice covered. Some smaller lakes such as Pelican Lake are partially ice covered. Ice is expected to break up next week. Strong winds may cause ice to push up on the shore in areas with shallow ground slopes such as beaches.
• Ice pushed up on shores by strong winds can cause significant damage and pose a risk to low‑lying cottages. Those who have experienced such difficulties before are advised to take whatever precautions may be feasible, such as moving valuables to higher ground.
• Lakes in the Whiteshell area are well above their summer target levels, which is not unusual during spring run-off. Brereton Lake is near a record high level and logs are being removed to reduce the lake levels.
Overland Flooding
• Overland flooding continues in some portions of the Red River Valley and the Interlake, but is subsiding in most areas and should end next week if dry weather continues. Flooding could quickly redevelop if significant rainfall were to occur over the next few weeks.
• Specific forecasted crest stages are shown on the daily flood sheets issued by Manitoba Water Stewardship.
Flood Response
• The projects to raise the ring dike around Melita and the sandbag dike on PTH 3 are now complete.
• Check highway conditions before travelling at www.manitoba.ca, 204-945-3704 or 1‑877‑627‑6237.
• The Flood Liaison Offices will reduce their hours of operation to 8:30 a.m. to 4:30 p.m. beginning today. The offices have handled over 1,500 calls since they were established. They are located in Winnipeg (945-2354), Morris (204-746-7325) and Brandon (204-729-1220). After-hours flood emergencies should be directed to local municipal offices.
