Bruce Burnett Director, weather and market analysis.
Eight to 12 million acres unseeded; wheat acres lowest in almost 40 years
Exceptional spring rainfall will severely impact this year’s wheat, durum and barley production, leaving leave more than eight million acres unseeded, the CWB announced today in its preliminary crop forecast.
“The excess rain has washed away the hope of seeding for many farmers,” said Bruce Burnett, CWB director of weather and market analysis, at the annual CWB grain industry briefing this morning. “In many cases, these acres are just lost and will not see any crop.”
In total, between 8.25 million and 12.5 million acres of farmland will go unseeded across the Prairies. The CWB is projecting the western Canadian seeded area for all wheat at 19.15 million acres, the smallest area since 1971 and an 18 per cent reduction from 2009-10. The area seeded to durum is expected to be 3.4 million acres, the smallest area since 1980 and down 39 per cent from 2009-10. The barley crop is looking at its lowest acreage since 1965. About 6.6 million acres of barley will be seeded, down 20 per cent from last year.
“Many areas got off to an early seeding start, but the extraordinary rains halted progress. Significant amounts of farmland remain unseedable at this late date,” Burnett said. “On the other hand, some previously dry regions where planting took place early have benefited from the rains.”
The situation is particularly bad in Saskatchewan, where 36 per cent of the crop remains unseeded and prospects for additional seeding are dim. Overall across the Prairies, seeding of major crops is about 78 per cent complete. Normally at this time of year, seeding is entirely complete.
Overall, total wheat production is forecast at 18.9 million tonnes, including 3.16 million tonnes of durum, and barley production is forecast at 7.64. The all-wheat yield is projected at 37.5 bushels per acres, above the 10-year average of 34.6 but below yields for the last two years. Likewise, durum yields are forecast at 34.5 bushels per acre, above the 10-year average of 31 but below last year’s yields of 36.5. Barley yields are projected at 57.5 bushels per acre, also above the 10-year average of 54 but slightly below last year’s yields of 58. Crop development is behind normal, raising some concern of frost damage late in the season.
The United States Department of Agriculture yesterday forecast world wheat production at 668.5 million tonnes for 2010, the third largest on record. This number, however, does not account for the seeding difficulties on the Canadian Prairies. In Europe and the Middle East, growing conditions are relatively good, raising expectations for an above average crop. In Western Australia, dry conditions are impairing seeding progress.
